About half an hour in, I thought it would be a brutal week, and it was just sort of bad. I went 5-10 ATS, though 3-2 in the LVS SuperContest and 2-1 on best bets. Some of my important teams did well, others did poorly. In one I wisely used Nick Foles over Colin Kaepernick. Another way of putting it is I foolishly started Foles over Andy Dalton. If you think streaming QBs is a picnic, let my experience be a cautionary tale.
• Rarely do I voluntarily turn away from from the games - occasionally I'll have something to do, like picking up Heather and Sasha from the airport - but if I'm home and free to watch, I'll almost always stick it out. Not so this afternoon as the late games were so poor, I spent 30 minutes fixing myself lunch and more time doing dishes and emptying the compost bin (more of a hassle than it sounds.)
• Why do teams not target their star players more often? Good offenses like the Falcons and Steelers seem to do it, but so many teams seem to get caught up in tangential goals like "establishing the run," or "keeping Peyton Manning off the field." Either at random or when things get desperate, you'll see a few throws to Calvin Johnson, or Odell Beckham, and the offense clicks. They drive down the field for an easy score - or get it in one play - and you wonder, "Where was that all game?" Why not just take a shot down the field to Johnson or Beckham on the first series of the game? Why is it necessary for us to watch Joique Bell plod into tacklers a yard behind the line of scrimmage? What possible purpose does that serve?
• Along those lines, Matthew Stafford engineered a unique two-minute drive in garbage time. Down 12 points, he used up most of the clock, and with about 35 seconds left, near the Denver 20-yard line, threw three or four short underneath passes and out routes, at least 10 yards shy of the end zone. Forget for a moment the Lions needed two scores, I just wanted one for fantasy purposes. Even Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth were wondering what he was doing. Finally, on fourth down, he threw a pass into the end zone, near no one. It was a just slung into an open area as if to say, "See, I did throw it in the end zone. Are you happy now?" And that's how the game ended.
• I realized why I'm not doing better in DFS. You can set 60 large-field tournament lineups (which I roughly did), but one of two things is going to happen: you'll either win a huge amount of money (unlikely) or you'll come out a significant loser. This is because in addition to the sites' nearly 15-percent rake, the guys who win the top-10 prizes take down roughly 16 percent of the pot (at least in the main FanDuel contest I played). So unless you can finish top 10 out of 344,827, you'll average 69 cents on the dollar. Now, overall you're still at 85 cents on the dollar because in theory one of those top-10 spots could be yours. But you assuming you don't get there, (and your chances are 1 in 35,000 per lineup), it's unlikely you'll break even over the long haul.
• The Colts are a bad team right now. They have no pass rush whatsoever, their offensive line can't pass protect or run block and their running backs aren't explosive. Andrew Luck made some bad decisions again Sunday, but it looks like he's forcing things out of desperation. The receivers other than Andre Johnson are good, but Luck is usually under siege, and the play calling isn't good. I still think Luck will be okay, but this is probably the worst overall team he's had.
• Andre Johnson is probably droppable at this point. I'm not saying there's no chance he's useful this year, but his upside is limited, he's doing nothing now, and he seems to have been passed on the depth chart by Donte Moncrief.
• C.J. Anderson isn't too far off, either. He left in the second quarter for concussion tests, returned shortly thereafter and managed only 18 yards on eight carries and one catch for nine yards. Ronnie Hillman had seven carries and one catch in what looks like a 55/45 timeshare behind a line that can't block. I would hold off if possible on Anderson another couple weeks, but a player's draft slot is nothing but the amount of cost that's sunk
• I considered using Chris Johnson in a bunch of DFS lineups, but thought David Johnson would have a bigger role. That was a mistake. When Andre Ellington went down, several people on my Twitter feed mocked the idea of picking up Chris rather than David based on their roles rather than their skills. I suppose I bought into that too, but it was all a little too smug. The Cardinals offense is rolling right now, and while Ellington might be back next week, I'd stash any of the three to get a piece of it. I honestly don't know which is the best bet right now.
• Larry Fitzgerald looks like he's 25 again. I don't know if he's healthier than in years past or just that Carson Palmer is finally healthy, and the line is better, but I don't think Fitzgerald's fast start is a fluke. John Brown and Michael Floyd, who made a great catch downfield in traffic that was called back on a penalty, will get more involved, but Fitzgerald's a top-20 WR the rest of the way.
• Collinsworth was right to point out that Peyton Manning looks more comfortable in the shotgun. Manning also moved around the pocket like a 40-year old, rather than a 70-year old Sunday night, something that bodes well for his health.
• It looked like Ben Roethlisberger would be out of the year, but now the team is saying 4-6 weeks with a torn MCL. I'd bet on the lower end of that timetable based on his history of playing through injuries, returning from smashing his head through a car windshield in a motorcycle accident and having his appendix removed right before the season and missing only one week. Michael Vick will probably be terrible, but at least he's more fun to watch than say Matt Cassel or Josh McCown.
• I said Kaepernick would be a top-10 fantasy QB this year if he keeps the job, (don't click the link as my predictions - except for No. 20 - look terrible already), but I might get bailed out because there's no way the 49ers can trot him out there if he plays like this. Kaepernick actually passed for 67 yards to his receivers and 71 yards (on interception returns) to Cardinals defenders.
• The Falcons were a great source of fantasy points Sunday because the production was concentrated so tightly among two players. Julio Jones saw 20 of the 35 targets, and Devonta Freeman got all 30 carries (Matt Ryan had two rushes on scrambles) and five of the other 15 targets. Essentially, Freeman and Jones accounted for 100 percent of the rushes and 71 percent of the throws. We'll see what the split is when Tevin Coleman comes back, but Freeman's got to be the lead dog for the foreseeable future.
• The over/under in the Bears-Seahawks game was 43.5, and the game went off at 16.5. That means the O/U for the Bears points was 13.5. In retrospect, that seems absurdly high without Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. Those who thought Fred Jackson would have value were surely under the "Veil of Ignorance" as Thomas Rawls filled in for Marshawn Lynch and had 16 carries for 105 yards. I would imagine Rawls is the player to pick up should Lynch's injury linger.
• Ryan Tannehill was terrible though he salvaged his fantasy day somewhat in garbage time. But what's going on with the Dolphins defense? Seeing the Redskins, Jaguars, Bills and Jets on their schedule, I was actually happy to get them in a few leagues. Tyrod Taylor lit them up, and they didn't generate a single sack. Weren't Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh supposed to be unstoppable?
• Rishard Matthews has become one of Tannehill's main targets (10), though Jarvis Landry led the team with 13, and rookie DeVante Parker (7) and tight end Jordan Cameron (8) are also being fed. The difference is Matthews had 113 yards and two touchdowns, while the rest of the team did almost nothing. At 6-0, 215 and running his 40 in the mid 4.4s during his Pro Day (as opposed to 4.62 while injured at the NFL Combine), Matthews might be a factor all year. At the very least, Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings are unrosterable.