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Week 5 Observations

There's change in the league every year, but this season it seems like the pace is accelerating. For the first few weeks, it was all Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Aaron Rodgers, and now it's Todd Gurley, Devonta Freeman and even Josh McCown. Three weeks from now we could be talking about Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch and Andrew Luck again. Maybe it's always been this way, and I'm just not remembering, but whatever the explanation, I don't trust more than a handful of players long term. For example, Jones was on pace to break every record, and now I'm wondering whether his toe and hamstring injuries will dog him all year. I trust Le'Veon Bell right now, and also Tom Brady. Maybe we can bank on 30-year old Adrian Peterson and Antonio Brown once Ben Roethlisberger comes back. But how much deeper can we really go?

This makes it even more important to stay on top of the waiver wire, where speculative adds like Travis Benjamin, Willie Snead, Gary Barnidge and Thomas Rawls can save your season. It also makes it dangerous to sit tight, thinking the roster you have now will still be good eight weeks hence.

Eli Manning played an MVP-level game, throwing for 441 yards on 8.2 YPA and leading the team on a game-winning drive in the final two minutes with his top three receivers (Odell Beckham, Rueben Randle and Victor Cruz) not playing. (Beckham did return at the end to draw a key pass interference penalty.) Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's scheme is working, but it's best when Manning's running the two-minute offense, and setting up the run with the pass. The lazy, conservative play calling at the start of the third quarter, where they were aiming to convert first downs instead of looking to score points, let the 49ers back into the game.

Once again, Tom Coughlin botched the end-game strategy by (1) settling for a field goal on 4th-and-goal from the 1 to take a three-point lead with plenty of time left and the 49ers offense moving the ball with ease; and (2) not using his timeouts on defense when it was clear the 49ers would get at least a field goal and quite possibly a touchdown, which they did. The saving grace for New York, without which they would not have won the game, was Carlos Hyde needlessly going out of bounds during the final drive and the 49ers calling a pass play on 1st-and-goal from the two instead of a timeout-costing run. The Giants were also lucky Hyde scored on second down rather than third.

The Giants defense got exposed against a quarterback whose confidence was shot heading into the game. Maybe this jumpstarts Colin Kaepernick's season, though I'd bet against it.

Rashad Jennings is the team's best all around back, and Shane Vereen is great for the two-minute offense. Andre Williams is an innings eater, and they shouldn't force-feed him around the goal line.

When the 49ers handed Jarryd Hayne the ball, I felt like he might punt it.

Derek Carr looked good early, but the last two games he's reverted to the erratic rookie version of himself.

Say what you like about the DFS commercials - they're annoying, and there are too many of them. But the Burger King chicken fries spot is worse. Not only does it use the stupidest, tritest, corniest, commonest kind of weak corporate pseudo humor, but the product it's selling is revolting from the inhumane large-scale factory chicken operations from which it originates to the greasy, diarrhea-inducing, processed rectangles they pass off as food. While the Cialis/Viagra ads are just as bad, performance-enhancing meds are probably necessary in large part because too many people eat at Burger King (and other toxin-rich, nutrient-poor fast food chains), which pollute their systems and rob them of their vital energy.

Like Barnidge and Benjamin on the Browns, you have to take Allen Hurns and obviously Allen Robinson seriously on the Jaguars. Both teams will get behind and wind up in their share of shootouts, and while neither quarterback is likely to be consistently good, they're capable of big games, often in garbage time.

The Saints might resemble the Browns and Jaguars in that respect, only they spread the ball around more than one would like. Still Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks could be garbage time kings for much of the year like they were today.

The Eagles are rounding into the form we expected before the season. Sam Bradford still looks terrible at times, but he threw for 333 yards in a game in which they were largely ahead, and handed the ball off 33 times. Jordan Matthews has the physical skills to be a No. 1 receiver, but he's got to hang onto the ball.

As bad as Coughlin is with end-game management, Andy Reid is worse. The Bears got the ball to the Kansas City 13, down five, with 57 seconds left, and Reid failed to use his timeouts on defense. As a result, after the Bears scored to go up one (failed two-point try), the Chiefs got the ball back with 11 seconds left and couldn't get into field-goal range.

It's unfortunate Jamaal Charles is likely out for the year with a torn ACL, but I find it funny everyone who backed him up with Knile Davis is SOL because suddenly Charcandrick West is the guy. I almost never "handcuff" my starters with their alleged backups, not only because it limits the upside of your draft, but also because the backup often doesn't keep the job or isn't nearly as good.

Devonta Freeman had a third-straight monster game, this time against a tough run defense. Not only did he rack up 157 yards and a score on the ground he also caught seven of his eight targets for 44 yards. He looks like peak Ray Rice who was a top-five back, top-three in PPR.

Julio Jones doesn't seem entirely healthy, and his volume, coincidentally or not, has dropped off significantly since the season's first three games. Jones was also hobbled at the end of last year with a hip injury (this year he's battling toe and hamstring ones), and missed significant time a couple years ago with a foot injury. In short, I can't put him in the same class as Antonio Brown with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. But that I have to qualify it goes to show how compromised all the top receivers are: Brown (QB out), Dez Bryant (injured and QB out), Jones (nagging injury), Demaryius Thomas (declining QB), Calvin Johnson (aging, terrible QB play), Jordy Nelson (out for the season), Randall Cobb (shoulder), Beckham (hamstring) and A.J. Green (too many quality options). One could argue, until Roethlisberger returns, Julian Edelman is the league's most reliable receiver.

The Bengals made a great and unlikely comeback down 24-7 to the Seahawks. Tyler Eifert has emerged as a top-five TE and Andy Dalton managed 331 yards and two TDs against Seattle's defense.

• Aaron Rodgers uncharacteristically threw two picks and lost a fumble at Lambeau Field, but Nick Foles (four picks) gave it back and then some, while completing only 11-of-30 passes. Moreover, kicker Greg Zuerlein missed three field goals. Still, the Rams just missed the backdoor cover when Stedman Bailey got behind the defense for a 68-yard catch in the closing minute that would have been a touchdown but for Ha Ha Clinton-Dix catching him by his ankles near the 10-yard line.

Todd Gurley or Adrian Peterson the rest of the way?

I really believed the Ravens poor defense early this year was a sample-size anomaly, and John Harbaugh was a good enough coach to turn things around. But now that they've not only been lit up by the Raiders in Oakland, but by the Browns at home, maybe they're just bad without Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs. It also makes you wonder about the Broncos offense, the only unit the Ravens shut down. After Denver's zero-TD showing against the Raiders, can we say with certainly they're a better bet for production than the Josh-McCown-led Browns?

You know what would be bigger than the DFS scandal? An NFL employee accidentally releasing first-half scores at noon ET.