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Analyzing Yahoo Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Sleepers and Busts

Fantasy basketball fans, now is the time to start getting excited. With Yahoo! opening their draft rooms for leagues and of course, mock drafts, the first set of rankings has also been released. When rankings are released on sites like Yahoo! and ESPN, they are always worth taking the time to peruse, not because they are the best, but because so many people will blindly follow whatever numbers are presented to them on their league's platform of choice.

How can you, as a savvy fantasy basketball manager, prosper from these default rankings?

Knowing where your league-mates may be valuing players can be extremely beneficial in your own preparation before draft night. Scouring these rankings will allow you to find guys who are underrated, players who are overrated, and allow you to begin to formulate a solid draft strategy.

It's important to know that Yahoo! uses nine-category leagues (including turnovers) as their default setting, so all of the rankings and subsequent analysis is based on nine-category leagues.

I've gone through the Yahoo! rankings with a fine-toothed comb to find who could be the busts and the sleepers from these first set of player evaluations on Yahoo!.

Sleepers

The sleepers section is a little more interesting than the busts. This is where you can potentially win your league, by grabbing guys at a much lower position than they are likely to finish the season. This is a list of the players I think will exceed their Yahoo! ranking when the end of the season rolls around.

Chris Bosh (35) - Even with LeBron James in Miami last season, Bosh was the 25th best nine-category fantasy player. With James now in Cleveland and the ink on Bosh's five-year max contract still drying, Bosh's role on the team is sure to increase. He may not approach the numbers he was regularly putting up in Toronto, but a return to the top-20 in fantasy seems like a decent bet, and if you can grab him 15 picks after that, you'll be sitting pretty in your draft.

Andre Drummond (40) - Even with his abominable free-throw shooting (42 percent last season), Drummond was the 30th ranked player last season. But in a head-to-head league where you can punt free throw percentage, Drummond skyrockets all the way up to sixth. At pick 40, that is ludicrous value in head-to-head category leagues. With that said, his deplorable free-throw shooting does make him someone I'll generally avoid in rotisserie leagues where you can't escape the season-long impact of poor percentages.

DeAndre Jordan (41) - I could almost copy and paste what I wrote for Andre Drummond word for word for Jordan. Last season, he was ranked 33rd in nine-category rotisserie leagues and fifth in head-to-head category leagues. If you grab Jordan and Drummond at the third and fourth round turn, you just snagged yourself two top-10 head-to-head players.

Chandler Parsons (57) - Playing alongside Dwight Howard and James Harden last season, Parsons was able to put up the 35th best fantasy season for nine-category leagues. He was ranked 35th in 2012-13 as well, so the fact that he has now signed a max contract with the Mavericks, shouldn't drop him 20 spots, should it? I'm banking on the fact that it won't, and even if Parsons is still the third option behind Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis, he'll be no worse off than he was last season in Houston. In both head-to-head and roto leagues, Parsons should be able to keep his exceptional numbers going and will be a steal if he lasts until pick 57.

Gordon Hayward (60) - Hayward, like a number of guys, is a league-type dependent player. In rotisserie leagues, his ranking is about spot-on, although I do feel he'll probably finish slightly ahead of this number this season. However, in head-to-head leagues, he's a much better fantasy target, due to the fact that you can punt his low field goal percentage and high turnovers and come out with a top-25 player. With an improved supporting cast this season, I'd expect a better overall season for the young star, and he should exceed this rank comfortably, especially in head-to-head leagues.

Josh Smith (71) - Smith had one of the all-time worst shooting performances last season, struggling from the field, the line, and from beyond the arc. However, in head-to-head leagues, his counting stats are still top-class. If you discounted his percentages, Smith was a top-30 player last season, but in nine-category rotisserie, he was ranked 127th. Such a big difference underlines the importance of knowing your league settings.

Trevor Ariza (80) - Ariza turned in his best season as a pro in 2013-14, and he finished the season as the 26th best nine category player. His offseason move to Houston diminishes his value somewhat, but not to the extent his ranking implies. He could easily be a top-50 player, filling in Chandler Parsons' role on the wing, hitting triples, and providing excellent defensive numbers. Grabbing him at pick 80 feels like a major steal.

Robin Lopez (123) - This is possibly the strangest of the rankings so far. Last season, Lopez found his role with the Blazers, and subsequently finished the season ranked 40th overall in nine category leagues. With an exemplary 82 percent shooting from the line, Lopez is a great option in roto leagues as well as head-to-head, and it feels like he'll be on all of my Yahoo! teams this season if this rank holds up during drafts.

Busts

A bust is not necessarily a guy who is going to be terrible this season, but more a reflection of which guys are ranked too high for where I think they'll end the season ranked. In essence, these are guys, who, based on these rankings, won't be finding themselves on my teams this season.

Derrick Rose  (22) - I love Derrick Rose as a player, but as a fantasy guy, not so much. The former MVP has played 49 out of the last 230 games in the NBA, and even before his meniscus injury last season, Rose looked a little shaky. In his MVP season of 2010-11, Rose was the 17th ranked player in nine-category leagues, and to think he'll be back at the level this season seems a little far fetched. In a head-to-head league, where it's easier to punt his turnovers and sub-par field goal percentage, it's not crazy to take Rose that early, but in rotisserie leagues, there are a lot better and less risky options available at the 22 slot.

Ryan Anderson (30) - Much like Rose, Anderson is attempting to return from injury this season. The three-point shooting big man suffered a scary spinal injury at the start of January. Before the injury, Anderson was flying, ranking 18th in nine-category leagues on a per-game basis, but his return from injury makes him a risky prospect at number 30. With the Pelicans also adding Omer Asik this offseason, they will be able to ease Anderson back, and it's unlikely he approaches the 36 minutes he played last season. Anderson is an equally talented fantasy contributor in head-to-head or rotisserie leagues, but at the 30th pick, trying to guess whether or not he'll stay healthy while returning from a herniated disk injury in his back that required him to undergo surgery at the end of March. [Editor's note: I think the Derrick Rose ranking is insane at 22 (two season-ending, non-contact injuries in a row), but this Anderson ranking is the probably the most absurd ranking on Yahoo! to start the season. In addition to his foggy health situation, Anderson is pretty much locked into a bench role that will limit his minutes.]

Dwyane Wade (33) - In a head-to-head league, this feels much too high for D-Wade. Last season, he per-game stats were good for 41st best in fantasy, but a horrible 102nd ranking in total value for rotisserie leagues makes this ranking highly suspect. In a roto league, his value is higher due to the games played limits at each slot, but even in that format, 33 is a big reach. Wade has said he hopes to play in 75 games this season, but given the fact that he only played in 54 games last season and that he looked to dogged to play defense in the playoffs, we're less than excited about his prospects this season.

Isaiah Thomas (36) - Thomas was one of the surprises of last season, coming from fantasy obscurity to finish the season ranked in the top-35. This season, however, he is sharing a backcourt with Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic (both top-40 players themselves), and it's going to be hard to see how Thomas could equal last season's performance. In Sacramento, Thomas averaged 35 minutes per game, and with the abundance of backcourt riches in the desert, it's unlikely he tops those numbers. If people draft Thomas at this spot, it's safe to say I won't have him on any teams this season, regardless of league scoring format.

Michael Carter-Williams (47) - Carter-Williams, the NBA's reigning rookie of the year is one of those players whose value is effected dramatically by your league. In a nine-category rotisserie league, picking MCW at 47 is extremely overzealous. In his rookie campaign, he finished the season ranked 94th, fueled largely by horrendous shooting and turnover numbers. In a head-to-head league, his ranking feels about right, but drafting MCW in the top-50 of rotisserie leagues would almost cost you three categories (FG%, FT%, TO), so I'd be steering well clear.

Kevin Martin (64) - With the Timberwolves bringing in not just Zach LaVine to play Martin's position, but also No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins, K-Mart's role in Minnesota seems like it will be significantly stunted. He played 32 minutes per game last season, but it seems doubtful he'll approach those numbers this season and at that draft slot, there are many other guys I'd prefer.

Arron Afflalo (70) - In nine-category leagues last season, Afflalo was the 100th ranked player. Now, he moves from a poor Orlando team to a much deeper team in Denver. He'll have to compete with Wilson Chandler, rookie Gary Harris, Randy Foye, and Danilo Gallinari for minutes on the wing, and even at his best, Afflalo is really only a positive contributor in points, three-pointers, and free-throw percentage. In both league types, I'd be looking in another direction at this point in the draft.

Dante Exum (79) - This feels very, very high for a rookie, let alone a rookie who no one really knows how they will perform this season. The international man of mystery may yet come off the bench for Utah, behind incumbent starter Trey Burke, and even if he does get a good slice of the backcourt minutes, we don't know how his skills will translate to the fantasy game. As a flyer pick in the 100's, Exum is definitely a guy I'd be looking at, but within the top-80 feels a little strange to me.

Sleeper And Bust

This category is reserved for one player, and one player only.

Dwight Howard (39) - Last season, in nine-category rotisserie leagues, Howard was the 124th ranked player despite his best free-throw shooting percentage in three years, knocking in 55 percent of his freebies. It's the volume of free throws that kills Howard's value, and in rotisserie leagues, unless you are executing a somewhat difficult punting strategy, Howard at 39th overall is much too high. On the flipside, in head-to-head leagues, Howard is a bargain, much like Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan. If you punted free-throw percentage and turnovers, Howard was last season's eighth best player. Basically, you could draft Howard, Drummond, and Jordan with your second, third and fourth picks and end up with four top 10 talents in head-to-head leagues, but in rotisserie, he's pretty much death by negligence. It's nearly impossible to win a rotisserie league with Howard on your team, even if you draft Kevin Durant to try to offset Howard's horrible free-throw shooting.

Return From Injury

Always of interest is how players who missed significant time last season will be ranked. I've covered a couple up above, but below is a list of the initial Yahoo! ranks of players who are returning from an injury-interrupted 2013-14 season.

Player2014-15 Yahoo! Rank
Derrick Rose22
Brook Lopez23
Al Horford24
Ryan Anderson30
Kobe Bryant34
Jrue Holiday42
Nerlens Noel52
Larry Sanders82
Steve Nash138
JaVale McGee141
Danilo Gallinari158

Deep Sleepers

These are guys who are off the radar according to these ranks, currently sitting outside the top 156 (standard 12-team league player pool) who I think will be rosterable in most formats by the end of the season. These players are guys to target in your last couple of rounds as the upside is palpable.

Danilo Gallinari (158) - I know Gallinari is returning from an ACL injury, but this is ludicrous. In his previous four seasons, Gallinari has had an end-of-season nine-category rank of 45, 52, 52, and 47. That's remarkable consistency, and although it's undeniable there'll be some rust (see Rose, Derrick and Rubio, Ricky), surely a top-100 finish is likely.

DeMarre Carroll (160) - Carroll was a revelation last season, ending with a ranking of 53 on a per game basis in his first season as a starter. No moves the Hawks have made this season point to Carroll moving out of the starting lineup, so there's no reason Carroll can't be a solid top-80 player again. He is extremely valuable in all formats, but particularly in roto, where his ability to contribute across the board helps your team to no end.

Jared Sullinger (168) - This is another head-scratcher. With Sullinger heading into his third NBA season and Kris Humphries now in Washington, surely Sullinger will improve on his ranking of 130 from last season. This looks to be a great opportunity to cash in on as Sullinger appears set to be the main man in Boston's frontcourt.

P.J. Tucker (183) - Tucker was one of fantasy basketball's unsung heroes last season, providing top-100 value off the waiver wire. He'll most likely return to the starting lineup this season as coach Jeff Hornacek loves the defensive and rebounding presence he brings and will surely exceed a ranking of 183.

Marcus Smart (173) - With Rajon Rondo seemingly having one foot out the door, it feels like it's only a matter of time before the Celtics install their prized rookie as a starter. When he does, he'll be a guy you want to own in pretty much all leagues. As a late-round flyer, the risk is minimal.

Matt Barnes (193) - At one stage late last season, Barnes was putting up top-10 small forward numbers. In fact, from the 23rd of February through the end of the season, Barnes was the 29th ranked player in the league. The Clippers made close to zero moves this offseason. In fact, they removed competition for Barnes by letting Danny Granger traverse the country to Miami, and Barnes seems to be locked in as the starter. Don't sleep on what Barnes can bring to your team.

C.J. Miles (223) and Rodney Stuckey (224) - Someone has to replace Paul George and Lance Stephenson, and along with Solomon Hill, Miles and Stuckey seem the leading candidates. Last season, Miles was the 145th ranked player in only 19 mpg in Cleveland, and he's set to have his role increased significantly. Grabbing either of these guys, I prefer Miles, in the last round of drafts should pay off handsomely.

Mirza Teletovic (230) - Last season, Teletovic hit 1.9 three-pointers per game in just 19 mpg, and with Paul Pierce gone and Kevin Garnett one step closer to retirement, the opportunity for minutes in Brooklyn just got interesting. The long-range bombing Bosnian has a chance to grab the starting power forward role if Garnett goes down, and he should be able to provide at least late-round value.

Kelly Olynyk (253) - Much like Sullinger, Olynyk has one less body pressing him for minutes this season with Humphries off to the Wizards. After dominating Summer League for the second season in a row, Olynyk will look to grab the starting center job, and even if he starts off behind Brandon Bass, Olynyk will still have enough value for a late-round pick.

Mason Plumlee (254) - Team USA's most unheralded member is a steal at pick 254. Much like Teletovic, minutes are there for the taking in Brooklyn, and with Garnett and Brook Lopez both considered huge injury risks, Plumlee could have the pivot all to himself at some point this season. I'll be drafting him nearly everywhere this season.

Cody Zeller (284) - Someone needs to start at power forward for the Hornets, and coach Steve Clifford has already said it's unlikely to be rookie Noah Vonleh. It might be Zeller, the 2013 NBA Draft's No. 4 overall pick will look to lock down the starter's role in training camp, and even if he is relegated to backup minutes behind Marvin Williams, Zeller's value should exceed 284.

Isaiah Canaan (416) - Now that Jeremy Lin is in Los Angeles, Canaan is the backup to Patrick Beverley at the point. Beverley battled a few injuries last season, and when Canaan was forced into action, he didn't look out of place. He's unlikely to provide consistent value this season, but he could be a guy to stash on your bench if your league formats allows for it. The Rockets also brought in Ish Smith in free agency, but Canaan is the more exciting player of the two.

That's my initial look at the Yahoo! rankings. There's definitely a lot of value to be found if you know where to look. If there are any other players you want my opinion on after looking at these numbers, let me know in the comments or on Twitter @RedRock_BBall.