DraftKings LoL: Saturday LEC/LCS Cheatsheet

Games (EDT)

11:00 a.m: Fnatic (FNC) vs. Origen (OG)

4:00 p.m: Evil Geniuses (EG) vs. FlyQuest (FLY)

Expected Lineups: https://www.rotowire.com/daily/esports/lol-lineups.php

FNC (13-5) vs. OG (13-5)

These two teams each won a game during the Spring Split with Origen winning in Week 1 and Fnatic returning the favor in Week 5. On paper it's a fairly even series as both teams boast strong rosters top to bottom and are dead even record wise at 13-5. Let's take a quick look at these teams and how they like to play. 

Orgien is a very methodical team that gets labeled as a great macro roster, but when we dig deeper we notice that that isn't actually true. They are slow, with the second longest game time in the LEC, but their macro play isn't as good as people think considering their dragon control rate is a measly 48 percent, ahead of only xL, SK and Vitality, three teams that didn't make the playoffs. Where they make up for it is in the late game, posting a 77 percent Baron control rate. So their goal is to give up a few early drakes in order to scale, pick a teamfight late and get control of the Baron. 

The problem for Origen is that Fnatic are playing at the fastest pace in the league, with the shortest average game time and highest gold-difference-at-15 minutes-rate, showing that they are excellent in the early stages of the game. Their dragon control rate is the best in the league at 72 percent, and while they're behind Origen in Baron control rate, they sit in third with 61 percent. So what happens when you get a team that is almost as good as you in the late game, but may not even allow you a chance to get there? I think this series only goes one way and while Origen may sneak a game out of this series and are a pretty good team, they historically find issues against the two best teams in the league, G2 and Fnatic. 

Rekkles is the KDA king, but also leads Fnatic in damage, with Bwipo and Nemesis less than a percentage point behind him. Bwipo is the high variance option on the team, who can often carry, but also can get focused heavily by opposing teams. On the Origen side, I think they only win if they can take Bwipo out of the game, so look to Alphari and Xerxe, with Upset providing that carry threat as he leads the team with just shy of 30 percent of their damage dealt. While it wouldn't entirely shock me if Origen come out on top here, I'm not expecting it.

Predicition: FNC 3-1

FNC Players to Target: Bwipo ($6,400), Rekkles ($8,000), Hylissang ($5,000)

OG Players to Target: Alphari ($6,200), Xerxe ($6,800), Upset ($7,200), OG Team ($4,800)

FLY (10-9) vs. EG (11-8)

I'm not going to go as in depth here as I think this series is way more straightforward. These two teams have been trending in opposite directions as EG have been on the rise, culminating in the second seed for playoffs, while FlyQuest have been rotating their top laners and dropping three of their last five games. 

FlyQuest don't have the necessary tools in my opinion to take advantage of EG's weak spot, which is Kumo in the top lane, regardless of who FLY starts. Solo, who I expect to start, can play the weakside of the map well, but isn't the type of player to takeover a game and carry from the top lane. On the reverse side, WildTurtle has been the weak spot for FLY and goes up against Bang, who has been great in a resurgent season on EG. Bang leads EG with 30 percent of their damage share, while Jiizuke is the runner up with 27 share. The only way I see FlyQuest pulling this out would be from a herculean effort from PowerOfEvil, who accounts for 36 percent of FLY's damage, the highest damage share of any player in the league. I just think it's too much to ask of FLY's mid laner, as EG have advantages in basically every spot, including a large jungle difference.

Prediction: EG 3-0

FLY Players to Target: PowerOfEvil ($7,000)

EG Players to Target: Svenskeren ($6,600), Jiizuke ($7,800), Bang ($7,600), Zeyzal ($5,400), EG Team ($5,400)