East Coast Offense: Trust the Process

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Heading into Week 15, I was 25th out of about 400 teams in the $100K NFFC online playoffs (they run Weeks 14-16.) With so many teams, it was a long shot for me to win it, of course, but given the payout, I wanted to set myself up with a reasonable shot heading into the final week.

For the most part my lineup was set. But I was shaky on my second running back slot with only Mark Ingram, Jerick McKinnon and Charles Sims as the choices. Adrian Peterson, who was likely to play in Week 16, was also on my bench.

I had Ingram slotted in all week despite his 18-snap, seven-carry, 14-yard, one-catch-for-nine-yard dud in Week 14. Ingram had battled toe and knee injuries of late, and he had managed only 20 snaps and 53 yards from scrimmage the prior week against the Lions. But heading into Week 15, he was off the injury report and potentially in for a bigger workload.

On Friday, news broke that Peterson was going to play in Week 15 against the Colts. That was good news for me because it would serve as a nice test of his health and possibly the Vikings commitment to getting him the ball.

On Sunday morning, more news came in: (1) Peterson was starting; (2) he'd work as part of a rotation, but could get a bigger load if he looked good. Now I had to consider him.

The problem with Ingram wasn't just his erratic role and less-than-complete health (even though he was off the injury report, he did not practice Wednesday and participated Thursday and Friday on only a limited basis), but the venue and opponent. For starters, the Saints were on the road where Drew Brees tends to struggle, and they were facing the league's No. 1 overall defense in terms of yardage allowed. Moreover, the Cardinals were a No. 1 against fantasy RBs in points allowed heading into the week. (They're No. 4 now only because Ty Montgomery counts as a WR in our database, artificially moving the Bears up, and the Cowboys and Seahawks shut down the run this week.) And the Saints were 2.5-point road underdogs (three at kickoff).

By contrast, the Vikings were four-point home favorites (five by kickoff) against a Colts team that was 25th in yielding fantasy points to running backs, i.e., the eighth most friendly. There was no guarantee Peterson would look like himself after the long layoff, running behind a bad offensive line and wearing a knee brace, and he's never been much of a pass catcher, a liability in full PPR, but he had a strong case vs. Ingram in my opinion.

On Twitter, opinions were flying back and forth, and I stirred more of them up by warning people I was considering making the rash move of using Peterson at the last minute. The responses ranged from "A real man would," the only advice I'd take seriously, to reasoned analysis which one can safely ignore. I didn't see much ceiling for Ingram in a three-way committee with Travaris Cadet and Tim Hightower (as well as occasionally John Kuhn) when Coby Fleener wasn't bizarrely getting a goal-line carry. And while Peterson's floor was basically zero, his ceiling was a couple TDs and decent yardage - at least as I saw it. As for the implausibility of him doing that off a serious injury, it was certainly more plausible than him rushing for 2,000 yards nine months off a torn ACL.

We all know what happened - Peterson rushed for 22 yards, caught one pass for a yard and lost a fumble. Ingram rushed for 78 yards and caught two passes for 14. The decision cost me 8.9 PPR points.

Even so, I don't regret it. If you had told me the Saints would score 48 while the Vikings would lose 34-6, I would have expected much worse. That 8.9 points was all I had to pay for that error actually makes me feel better about the call. The Vikings ran only 14 offensive plays in the entire first half, six of which went to Peterson. He looked perfectly healthy and likely would have seen 20 touches had the game flow not gotten out of hand. Put differently, had the Vikings won 25 - 20, Vegas' projected score, and the Saints lost 27 - 24 (as Vegas also had it), I'd still bet good money Peterson outproduced Ingram.

So have I proven yet I had good "process" with an unfortunate result? Isn't that to which you're supposed to aspire, win or lose? I would argue that's the case, but not in the way it's generally understood. I wanted to start Peterson in a contest where ceiling was more important than floor, and I found a plausible way to convince myself to do so. Period. I started the guy I wanted to start, I didn't care what other people were saying, and I was willing to live with the consequences because it was my call. To say you had good process when you got something wrong is usually a cop out. If you get 2:1 on a coin flip and lose, okay, you can be reasonably sure you had the better of it. But while betting on one-time events with so many hand-to-handicap variables, concluding your process was good is typically an unfounded conceit. Even if Peterson did wind up looking reasonably healthy and saw six of 14 touches in the first half, how do I know that wasn't a 90th percentile outcome in itself, regardless of what he did with them? And what does it matter anyway? I'm not trying to justify and market a proprietary system for others to follow. I'm just making my own calls as best I see them.

For me, the paramount concern is learning to trust my own judgment above all - even if the results are sometimes wrong (they will be even if your "process" were impossibly pristine.) I say "learning" because we're all subject to being influenced subtly or overtly by "experts" or consensus opinions with which we come in contact, and it takes effort to remain in a community and keep our minds clear. If I make my call based on my own assessment of the facts alone, then my process was good. If I had a lean, based on my own observations and analysis, but I let it get shoved aside by groupthink, or undue attention to this or that person's opinion, my process was poor. I follow the NFL closely, and I'm in this game to test my observations and predictions against real-world outcomes. To refine my faculty of understanding. To the extent I'm doing that, I'm doing it right. To the extent I'm scrapping that in service of the short-term win, I've already lost, no matter the outcome.

And this would be so even if Jameis Winston, Sammy Watkins and others didn't have modest games, almost certainly rendering the 8.9-point difference moot. It would be a more expensive test of my principles in that case, but because my process - in the sense I outlined above - was good, I'd be able to live with it.

So Much Junk

In the early games, there was a flurry of scoring by players almost no one could have started in good conscience: Robert Turbin, Kamar Aiken, Sterling Shepard, Andy Dalton, Mike Gillislee, Robert Griffin, Phillip Dorsett, Josh Bellamy, Alex Smith, Christine Michael, Erik Swoope, Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles, Eli Rogers and Derrick Henry (2).

Alshon Jeffery, Charles Clay, Kenneth Dixon, Steve Smith, Marqise Lee, Tyreek Hill, Ty Montgomery (2) and Ryan Mathews were borderline.

By contrast, the obviously startable players who scored were: LeSean McCoy (2), Jordan Howard, Odell Beckham, Jeremy Hill and Lamar Miller.

Of the obviously startable players, only McCoy scored more than once. That means only six of the early slate's TDs were scored by stars, nine by borderline players and 17 by scrubs.

The late slate (including Sunday night) had the following scrubs score TDs: Garrett Celek, Austin Hooper, Rod Streater, Travaris Cadet, John Brown, Kerwynn Williams, Travis Benjamin, Hunter Henry and Adam Humphries.

Borderline: Tim Hightower (2), J.J. Nelson and Dak Prescott.

Starters: Devonta Freeman (3) Brandin Cooks (2), David Johnson (2), LeGarrette Blount, Michael Crabtree, Michael Thomas, Ezekiel Elliott and Cameron Brate.

That breaks down to nine scrub TDs, four borderline TDs and 12 starter TDs.

Suggestion for the Offseason Owners Meeting

It's no secret NFL ratings have been down this year, and while some of that might be cord-cutting, and some might have to do with the focus on the presidential election, I can assure you the product is also to blame. As such, I have a suggestion for the 32 NFL owners, free of charge: They should appoint a special prosecutor to investigate coaches who through cowardice, undue conservatism and cluelessness are destroying game-flow. The 10 coaches most guilty would then be fired, and the offending franchises would eat the cost of whatever remains on their contracts for the long-term health of the game.

So Jim Caldwell, Ben McAdoo (see below), Chuck Pagano, Mike McCarthy, possibly even Jason Garrett - it doesn't matter what their records are - would be terminated. Owners would be incentivized to hire only those who keep things moving with frequent no huddle, judicious use of challenges, i.e., only ones that have a bare minimum effect on projected win percentage, do not stick with the run once its futility has been duly established and do not punt on 4th-and-short from plus territory or kick field-goals of fewer than 23 yards, barring exceptional and particular circumstances. Moreover, referees should be evaluated for ticky tack personal foul and taunting calls, after two of which they receive an electric shock and three they are demoted to the NHL, whether or not they know how to skate.

Week 15 Observations

• What a sequence of failure between the Cowboys and Bucs in the end game. Dirk Koetter punted down three on 4th-and-5 from the Cowboys' 40 with 7:00 minutes left. Two plays later the Cowboys had the ball at the Bucs 34. Of all the teams you don't give the ball back to in the end game when you have a chance to make a first down! Koetter was actually lucky the Cowboys got such big chunks rather than slow, grind-it-out first downs that chewed up the entire clock.

The Cowboys eventually made it to the Bucs 15 with 2:58 left, but on 4th-and-1, they kicked the field goal to go up six! Not only does this put the Bucs in the position of playing for the win rather than the tie, but the Cowboys are the best suited team in the league to gain one yard and more or less seal the game.

The Bucs offense failed on its two final drives, but Jameis Winston overthrew a wide open Mike Evans on what could have been a game-winning TD

• Every time the Bucs handed the ball to Doug Martin, it felt like a wasted play. There are two directions in which to go when the run is failing: (1) force it in service of something called "establishing the run"; or (2) abandon it and do what's working until the defense brings in six DBs and makes running much easier. For whatever reason, NFL coaches seem to believe (1) like it's carved into Moses' tablets.

•Dak Prescott put the Giants game behind him with a reasonably efficient (7.8 YPA) dink and dunk performance where he completed 32 of 36 attempts and ran for a score. The Cowboys still need to show they can attack deep though if they're going to win the Super Bowl.

•Ezekiel Elliott always gets his, and this game against a stout Tampa D was especially big – 188 YFS and a score.

• The Cowboys should not be targeting Jason Witten more than 3-4 times per game. While he caught all 10 of his targets, it was for 51 yards, and he lost a fumble.

•Jameis Winston threw three interceptions, none of which were his fault. The first was on a end-of-half Hail Mary, the second due to getting hit while he threw a pass and the third on fourth down to end the game. I wrote about how the interception stat is often misleading, and this was a case in point.

• I didn't watch much of the Bills-Browns, but it looks like RGIII had a credible game, and by credible I mean didn't play like a college backup. Griffin managed 7.0 YPA, no turnovers and rushed for 48 yards and a score. He did take five sacks which is a long-standing problem for him, but it was a major improvement over the Cincinnati game.

• I had downgraded McCoy a bit due to the presence of Mike Gillislee at the goal line, and Gillislee did vulture one TD, but what a monster game otherwise – 8.1 YPC, 169 YFS, two scores. Instead I used Sammy Watkins in a few places.

• The Browns are one of the worst teams in the league vs. the TE, and Charles Clay predictably caught all seven of his targets for 72 yards and a score. Sometimes it's better to use the best players, other times to target the weakest competition.

• It would be funny if – after all the controversy about where Ty Montgomery should qualify – he started 2017 as Green Bay's No. 1 tailback. It's still a long shot, but he made a good case Sunday. Of course, Christine Michael also gashed the Bears for a long TD.

•Jordy Nelson is a top-five WR this year, despite coming off an ACL tear at age 31.

•Matt Barkley made some mistakes, but he deserves a shot to start next year. The Bears went from doormats that weren't even full three-point home favorites over the 49ers a few weeks ago to a team that's came back from three scores down against the Packers and has a puncher's chance against any non-elite team.

•Jordan Howard will be drafted in the second round next year.

• Lev Bell had a disappointing 131 YFS and five catches. That's what it's come to for the elite backs this year – anything short of a monster game is below par.

•Ben Roethlisberger had a decent game, but he so rarely puts up big numbers on the road.

•Tyler Eifert was a no-show, while Brandon LaFell has more or less been Cincy's No. 1 outside receiver since A.J. Green went down.

•Rex Burkhead always seems to be more efficient than Jeremy Hill.

•DeMarco Murray had another nice game – five catches, 141 YFS, but Derrick Henry vultured both of his TDs.

•Jeremy Maclin is finally back, relegating Tyreek Hill back to bit-player status. Hill did have a 68-yard TD run, but that was his only touch of the game. (He had three targets, but caught none of them.)

• After a few big games, Travis Kelce was quiet, and Spencer Ware's efficiency has plummeted of late. The Chiefs seem to do this every year – amass a good record on big plays and special teams, but look incapable of doing damage in the playoffs.

• The Titans decision to go for two with 3:12 left in what would have been a tie game was odd. Normally, if the game is down to the wire, you can roll the dice as it's 50/50, either way, i.e., in overtime or on that play. But with time left, you're giving the other team incentive to play aggressively and beat you if you make it (rather than conservatively for overtime) and letting them know they should run clock if you miss it, rather than playing to kick a game-winning FG. Essentially, you're allowing them to optimize their strategy in a way that they could not in a tie game. I'm not sure whether that makes it a bad choice, but it seems to be the difference between doing it early and doing it with no time left. Maybe someone else has run the numbers and can tell me if I'm missing something obvious. Either way, they should have called a better play.

I do think there's some ancillary benefit to boldness – even if slightly (but not glaringly) wrong on the math – as it sends the right message to the team. Players are always encouraged to be tough and courageous, and it's good when the man urging them on isn't an abject coward like so many of the league's head coaches.

•Ryan Succop hit a 53-yarder to win the game after Andy Reid "iced" him on a miss. After the game, Succop admitted the kick was out of his range in those conditions, but on the second try, he scrapped technique and just blasted it.

• Apparently the Vikings were incorrect to believe they were a contender to the point where dealing a first-rounder for Sam Bradford made sense in the wake of the Teddy Bridgewater injury. That's called throwing good money at bad. I was also incorrect about the Vikings earlier this year.

•Andrew Luck played a good game against a Minnesota defense that shuts down almost everyone, but none of his receivers had more than 50 yards.

•Frank Gore had 115 YFS, but Robert Turbin vultured both touchdowns.

•Kyle Rudolph has become a dependable, though unspectacular tight end. Stefon Diggs and the rest of the outside receivers all but disappeared for the Vikings.

• Quarterbacks even peripherally in the MVP discussion should avoid scheduling the Giants.

• The Giants-Lions was one of the more unwatchable games of the day. Both teams were dink-and-dunking nearly every play, no one was willing to take a chance and there were injury stoppages piled on top of endless commercial breaks interrupting any semblance of game flow.

•Eli Manning is a below-average NFL quarterback. I'd seriously consider taking Matt Barkley ahead of him in real life for 2017. Manning not only misses open receivers, but he throws behind them or at them rather than leading them into easy yards after the catch. The great Odell Beckham bailed him out one such throw with an amazing one handed catch and reach for the pylon.

•Rashad Jennings got 18 useless carries and the much more dynamic Paul Perkins 11 productive ones. Make the switch already – you can't give away downs and go deep into the playoffs.

• For all of Ben McAdoo's cowardice and terrible play calling – of course praised by brain dead Joe Buck and Troy Aikman – he called one good series up four midway through the fourth quarter when Manning hit Odell Beckham for a 25-yard gain and Sterling Shepard for 23, setting up the Giants' final TD to go up 11. Even though the defense is good, you never want to give the opposing offense shot after shot at them down only one score.

• I've misread the Terrence West/Kenneth Dixon timeshare for most of the last six weeks.

•Ryan Mathews has produced in spots this year, but most of the time it was impossible to see coming.

•Justin Tucker is the greatest kicker of all time, and it's not close.

• Gus Bradley's firing was like a woman giving birth at 11 months.

• When your starter's play is barbaric, there's nothing wrong with trying a Savage backup. Actually, it's mind-boggling Bill O'Brien didn't turn to Tom Savage six games ago. Another coach overdue to be fired, O'Brien also kicked a 39-yard field goal with nearly a minute left in the first half on 4th-and-a-half-yard to go.

•Blake Bortles is every bit as bad as Brock Osweiler, and I do not write those words lightly. Both have presided over nearly unprecedented first-round receiving busts (Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins, respectively.) With Savage taking over, Hopkins finished with 17 targets, eight catches and 87 yards. Robinson (8-2-15-0) had no such luck.

•Devonta Freeman predictably torched the 49ers for 155 YFS and three TDs. Not much else of significance happened in this game.

• The NFL can be frustrating. I had the Cardinals -2.5, they were down seven, midway through the fourth quarter with the Saints driving. On third-down, the Cardinals blitzed, got to Drew Brees for a deep sack, knocking New Orleans out of field-goal range. But during the sack, one defender drove Brees into the other oncoming one, and their helmets grazed as Brees went down. Personal foul, roughing the passer, 15-yard penalty, automatic first down. The Saints scored a TD on that drive instead of punting, and it was game over. The Cardinals were the wrong side anyway, but at least let the game play out.

•Drew Brees uncharacteristically torched a good pass defense on the road for 389 yards and four TDs, but his owners were probably bounced from the playoffs last week. Similarly Brandin Cooks had a monster game a couple weeks too late for many people.

•David Johnson kept his 100-plus YFS streak going with a meager 107, but he scored twice and caught five passes.

•Carson Palmer had a decent game, and it would have been better but for some drops. The most egregious was on the team's penultimate drive when J.J. Nelson dropped a would be long TD after he was well behind the defense.

• The Patriots win a lot of games where they don't necessarily look like the better team but just make some key plays.

• Never start your QB in Denver even if it's Tom Brady.

• The Broncos miss C.J. Anderson. Justin Forsett and Devontae Booker are bad.

•Derek Carr is decent, but it's preposterous he's in the MVP discussion along with quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Brady who are having great seasons. I'm not sure why the Raiders spent such an early pick on Amari Cooper last year if they're so uncommitted to using him.

• Of course the Chargers fumbled at their own 14 in the fourth quarter up three. It's just who they are as an organization.

•Kirk Cousins seemed off. It didn't help that Jordan Reed was injured (and eventually ejected) or that Vernon Davis, Pierre Garcon and Chris Thompson dropped passes, but the Washington offense wasn't crisp, and most of Cousins' throws were short. Part of that was Carolina's pass rush.

•Cam Newton played well. The Redskins brought a lot of heat, but Newton slung the ball around accurately to a variety of receivers. Newton's motion seems so effortless – even on deep throws – you can still see the player that carved up the league last year. Something about the Panthers is just off, though, even in a convincing win.

•Greg Olsen had his second straight productive game after about six duds.

•Kelvin Benjamin looked like the unquestioned No. 1 WR to start the year, but he's totally disappeared the last three weeks. In fact, Ted Ginn seems like the team's No. 1 to the extent they even have one.

•Jonathan Stewart ran roughshod over the Redskins defense all game. It's amazing he's still relevant in 2016.

•Rob Kelley had nine carries for eight yards, and it was eight carries too many. It's hard watching a failed run game. Oddly, Cousins ran an option twice where he faked taking it himself and gave it to Kelley. Both times Cousins would have had 10 yards, while Kelley got stuffed.

•DeSean Jackson had a great game, making one good and one amazing catch on the sidelines that were initially ruled incomplete and overturned on challenges. But Cousins never tried to get the ball deep to Jackson, possibly because of the pass rush.