Matchup Edge: Progress to the Mean

Baltimore vs. Chicago

Open: 40 O/U, BAL -6.5
Press time: 39 O/U, BAL -6.5

Joe Flacco looked much better against Oakland last week, but it's not easy to buy into 26 pass attempts against the 118 that preceded them. Perhaps he'll be able to throw a couple touchdown passes on short fields if Mitchell Trubisky struggles as expected, but the over/under for yardage probably has to be 185 or so. The Bears are allowing just 7.0 YPA to wideouts so far, so if Flacco does get something going it might need to be through – surprise – Ben Watson and Javorius Allen. Considering they've allowed 278 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends on 31 targets, Watson might be the favorite to lead the Ravens in receiving production.

The Bears run defense has been respectable, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to running backs, but favorable field positioning and game flow could put Allen and Alex Collins in position for success. Because he's a far superior pass catcher and has otherwise been Baltimore's most trusted red-zone back recently, I prefer Allen. I also suspect Collins is burning a bit hot right now as a max-effort off-the-bench guy, so I expect him to slow as his workload persists.

Trubisky should have his good fantasy days eventually, and perhaps even this year, but on the road against Baltimore is about as tough as it gets for a player who was relatively inexperienced even in terms of college play. Against a sound Baltimore scheme with nine interceptions in five games, Trubisky will need to be very good just to stay afloat.

On the other hand, it's easy enough to imagine a scenario where Flacco struggles, too. If that happens and the Bears capitalize by winning time of possession, this could be a spot where Jordan Howard makes a nice tournament play in DFS. So long as Brandon Williams (foot) remains out, the Ravens run defense looks somewhat vulnerable. They'll no doubt sell out against the run, but if Howard gets enough shots at them and with favorable enough field positioning, he's good enough to break them. The Ravens are allowing 4.3 yards per carry to running backs. Tarik Cohen has played fewer than 20 snaps each of the last two games, so it's hard to buy in to him too much for now.

Minnesota vs. Green Bay

Open: 47 O/U, GB -3.5
Press time: 45 O/U, GB -3

With Sam Bradford (knee) and Stefon Diggs (groin) out, Green Bay gets a relatively lucky draw here in what otherwise might be a challenging road game. I think Case Keenum has generally looked good this year, and he'll at least have a healthy Adam Thielen for this one. With a reliable career average around 10 yards per target, it would be disappointing if Thielen can't clear at least 80 yards on this one. Kyle Rudolph could see more work between the 20s with Diggs out.

Jerick McKinnon was one of the top waiver pickups this week after an impressive breakout game against the Bears, and the Packers have been less than dominant against opposing runners. McKinnon is super fast and quick, and he can catch the ball, but I probably wouldn't expect production like last week. Despite his mainstream viability in season-long formats, I'll probably avoid McKinnon in DFS. I'm not convinced that Latavius Murray won't be a nuisance yet.

It's hard to see Aaron Rodgers posting big volume in this one, but he should get the win and make enough plays to satisfy most of his fantasy owners. Jordy Nelson probably sees a fair amount of Xavier Rhodes, but Davante Adams should get open plenty of times against Trae Waynes. Randall Cobb might also see a bump in usage, especially if Martellus Bennett is kept in to block more often against the killer end combo of Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen.

Ty Montgomery (ribs) appears somewhat likely to suit up, but if he does, it's much more likely that he'll negate Aaron Jones' fantasy value than create any on his own. Jones has at least flex viability in season-long formats and some tournament appeal in DFS, but I'll be staying away from Montgomery in all cases.

Atlanta vs. Miami

Open: 47.5 O/U, ATL -9
Press time: 45.5 O/U, ATL -12.5

Mohamed Sanu (hamstring) is out, and the Miami defense has allowed just 3.4 yards per carry to running backs, so Julio Jones has to break out in this game, right? I think so. But I've thought that for three games now. Still, I really think it now. The Dolphins are allowing 9.2 yards per target to receivers so far, and there could be a funnel effect in Jones' favor if Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are contained by the Miami run defense. Of course, I guess Taylor Gabriel and Austin Hooper could just as easily be the beneficiaries.

For Miami, Jay Ajayi is the only play I expect to play well independently, but so far he's been badly undermined in all other regards by the team around him. The Falcons are heavy favorites in this one for a reason. Because it's so hard to trust Jay Cutler, it's hard to trust any of the Miami pass catchers. With double-digit targets in three of four games, Jarvis Landry is the one you would bet on if you had to pick one.

New Orleans vs. Detroit

Open: 51 O/U, NO -3
Press time: 50 O/U, NO -4

The Lions struggled to generate pressure on Cam Newton, and otherwise helped inflate his box score by blowing coverages on Ed Dickson. I think they'll tighten up a bit in this one, but going to New Orleans should theoretically offset that even if they do. Drew Brees should be able to make it two rough weeks in a row for the Lions, especially after they lost Haloti Ngata to IR.

With at least eight targets in every game and 8.4 yards per target so far, Michael Thomas projects well as he almost always does. I believe in Willie Snead's talent, but his play and target counts aren't assured in his first game back from a hamstring issue. After playing just 14 snaps against Carolina in Week 3, Coby Fleener saw his play count go back up to 44 against Miami before the bye. Perhaps he can get back going against a Detroit defense that has allowed 19 catches for 353 yards and a touchdown to tight ends on 29 targets.

With Adrian Peterson gone and Haloti Ngata out for Detroit, Mark Ingram should be in position for a breakout game in this one. He's averaged a touchdown run every 28.4 carries over the last three years, but he's gone 42 without one this year. Perhaps playing as a home favorite can make him due. Besides that, his 22 targets in four games is promising. Alvin Kamara should also be in position for a useful game in PPR formats, and not necessarily at Ingram's expense.

With the Saints allowing 8.6 yards per pass, Matthew Stafford should be able to keep the Lions in the game. If he does, it probably will have something to do with Golden Tate, who should be able to avoid Marshon Lattimore by primarily playing in the slot. You'd think the Saints would want Lattimore to follow Marvin Jones around the rest of the time, but perhaps they might not make such a big distinction between Jones and Kenny Golladay. Whoever gets Lattimore might find it difficult to get open.

So long as the Lions don't fall behind too much, Ameer Abdullah should be in position for good production. He's running well enough on his own account, and his shiftiness could play well in that dome against a defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry to running backs. Abdullah has yet untapped pass-catching upside, too, and going against the Saints could also help with that since they've pushed 10 targets per game to opposing running backs at 7.4 yards per target.

Houston vs. Cleveland

Open: 44 O/U, HOU -10.5
Press time: 47 O/U, HOU -9.5

Kevin Hogan will read defenses better than DeShone Kizer and the Texans are of course weaker without J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, but I don't have much tournament interest in Hogan this week. I'd rather try my luck with Josh McCown. While Hogan is a tough, smart quarterback with standout running abilities, he was memorably inaccurate in college and he has a terrible group of pass catchers to throw to right now.

Duke Johnson is the best of them, so it's not good that he's a running back. And it's not good for Duke that the Browns won't really use him as a running back, but he should get plenty of targets again as the Browns presumably fall behind and get little from Isaiah Crowell.

Lamar Miller is a candidate to get good usage volume with favorable field positioning, but the Browns run defense has been among the best this year, and by the time it's late enough in the game for them to tire it might be garbage time for D'Onta Foreman. Miller is a strong RB2 in season-long in most cases, but I don't quite see the ceiling scenario I'd want for DFS.

Deshaun Watson, on the other hand, has a matchup that seems almost too good to be true. The Browns run defense should deter Houston from attempting to produce much on the ground, but their pass defense is awful. With 10 total touchdowns in his last two games, Watson would be a huge disappointment if he can't easily finish top-eight at his position this week. If it goes wrong, it's probably because Myles Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah got to him.

Watson's emergence means a revival for DeAndre Hopkins, who's among the top receiver plays even if the Browns choose to shadow him with Jason McCourty, their best corner. If McCourty is covering Hopkins well on a play, chances are Will Fuller and even Bruce Ellington are getting open elsewhere.

Jets vs. New England

Open: 47 O/U, NE -9.5
Press time: 47.5 O/U, NE -9.5

Matt Forte is expected to return from his turf toe injury, which majorly screws up what should have been a nice breakout spot for the probably better Elijah McGuire. With Forte back in the picture, I think McGuire is reduced to a risky PPR flex sort of consideration. The usage collectively should yield good production, but the probable workload split undermines both players.

Josh McCown disappointed a bit in his game against the Browns, but he's in an even nicer setup here. The Patriots should develop a lead early in the game, forcing the Jets to throw more than they'd otherwise hope to, and against a Patriots defense allowing 8.9 yards per pass and a touchdown every 15.7 passes, McCown would have no excuse for failure. His pass-catching trio of Robby Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins is more capable than I would have guessed a couple months ago, and any of the three could be productive in this setting. I like Anderson more than Kearse, though.

While the Jets pass defense has held quarterbacks to a YPA of 6.4, the starting quarterbacks they've seen other than Derek Carr (8.2 YPA, three touchdowns on 28 attempts) are DeShone Kizer, Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler, and Tyrod Taylor. Tom Brady should have a big game in this spot, and his pass catchers all project as they normally would. I feel like Brandin Cooks is going to have a big game one of these days, but he's seeing a lower target rate than Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola. The Jets have been tough on tight ends so far, but Gronk is of course the top tight end play this week.

Mike Gillislee might give you a good fantasy output if he gets red-zone carries. If he doesn't, he probably won't. That's all. The Jets run defense is vulnerable, but it's anyone's guess whether it's Gillislee or Dion Lewis who might benefit more.

Washington vs. San Francisco

Open: 46.5 O/U, WAS -9
Press time: 46.5 O/U, WAS -10.5

I'm losing the faith a bit in Samaje Perine, but this looks like a favorable setup for him. Rob Kelley is out, and Chris Thompson can only take so much of the workload as Washington heads into this as big home favorites.

Kirk Cousins should also be efficient for however much pass attempt volume he might get. The 49ers don't have the secondary personnel to cover Terrelle Pryor, and Jordan Reed was left off the injury report for this week. Jay Gruden talked of getting Jamison Crowder more involved, which makes enough sense. It's just odd that he didn't feel the need to say as much about Pryor, who quite frankly needs to get going more lest this offense do an impression of the Detroit Lions one. Slants and curls can only take you so far, and Cousins' success in Washington occurred with field-stretching wideout options on his side.

Brian Hoyer has been getting by on volume lately, but Washington has allowed the fewest pass attempts in the league at 131 in four games. That's along with five touchdowns and four interceptions. It helps that Josh Norman is out, of course, but Washington is allowing just 6.8 yards per target to receivers so far despite facing Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Derek Carr, and Alex Smith.

If a 49ers wideout were to get going in this one, you would of course bet on Pierre Garcon, who's among the league's best bets to finish the year with 160 targets or more. His lack of touchdown probability makes him much more valuable in PPR scoring, though. As much as I consider George Kittle a potential Pro Bowl talent, I wouldn't go chasing his numbers from last week in this one. Washington is allowing over 10 yards per target to tight ends so far, but I'm worried that Kittle will need to stay in more often to help slow Preston Smith and Ryan Kerrigan.

Arizona vs. Tampa Bay

Open: 44.5 O/U, PK
Press time: 45.5 O/U, TB -1.5

Carson Palmer can still make good-looking throws when he's not at all hurried by pressure, and the Buccaneers have the fewest sacks in the league with four. They're otherwise beatable through the air, allowing a completion percentage of 68.6, and a YPT of 8.7 to wide receivers.

After playing 158 snaps over the two prior games, Jaron Brown had his play count drop to 36 against Philadelphia, seeing six targets. John Brown jumped ahead of him in the rotation, playing 48 snaps, while J.J. Nelson also saw a promotion at Jaron's expense, upping his snap count percentage from 29 to 53 over the last two weeks. Larry Fitzgerald is arguably the best fantasy target of the group due to his target volume (51 in five games) and his 11 red-zone targets, but when adjusting for price I think Nelson is as valuable as a DFS play. The target volume is half Fitzgerald's, but he's averaging four more yards per target.

Adrian Peterson is expected to start for Arizona, but I have no interest in him against Tampa's sound run defense. Andre Ellington should maintain PPR utility after catching 18 passes over the last two weeks, though the Buccaneers have allowed only 218 yards on 34 targets to running backs so far.

Doug Martin doesn't look like the most high-upside play in this one, either. He's clearly the best running back for Tampa and should get carries as long as the Buccaneers don't fall behind, but it might be asking a lot to expect efficiency against a defense allowing 3.3 yards per carry and 4.3 yards per target to running backs.

Jameis Winston has shown a tendency for inconsistency, and seemingly without provocation. It's difficult to understand how he throws as inaccurately as he sometimes does, such as last week, only to make a series of throws later that convince you he's figuring it all out. I expect him to snap out of this state eventually, but I also thought he already would have.

While the Arizona pass defense has an intimidating reputation and is allowing just 7.0 YPA this year, they otherwise look beatable at the moment. Mike Evans is capable of producing even if Patrick Peterson is on him every play, while DeSean Jackson should be able to get open against Justin Bethel. With Peterson on Evans and Adam Humphries presumably against Tyrann Mathieu, Jackson versus Bethel is doubtlessly the biggest mismatch in Tampa's favor. If Evans sees fewer targets than usual, it could be to the benefit of Cameron Brate, though the Cardinals made it take 12 targets to get Zach Ertz to 61 yards and a touchdown last week.

Jacksonville vs. Rams

Open: 44 O/U, PK
Press time: 42.5 O/U, LAR -2.5

The line movement on this game makes it appear the general consensus marks the Jaguars as favorites, which surprised me a bit given the gap in quarterback quality between Jared Goff and Blake Bortles. On the other hand, the Jacksonville defense, and particularly its pass defense, is much better than that of the Rams.

Still, the Blake Bortles of the last two weeks wouldn't be able to score points if the Jaguars actually needed him to. Meanwhile, Jared Goff is averaging 8.3 YPA while throwing just three interceptions on 164 attempts, taking just six sacks in five games. With so many of his reads going to the slot, I think his methods largely avoid the problem of outside corners A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey. The emergence of Tyler Higbee also gives me hope for Goff, as Higbee is a big, athletic target over the middle who proved highly productive as a pass catcher in college. I don't think Goff will be useful in fantasy, but as long as the travel doesn't mess him up I think he's better enough than Bortles on most days to escape with a win.

As great as the Jaguars pass defense has been, its run defense has been well below average. I still have reservations about his vision out of the backfield, but Todd Gurley should prove a major threat to a defense that let itself get shredded by Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire. I'm concerned that he might not make his usual impact as a pass catcher, though – the Jaguars have allowed 5.4 yards per carry to running backs, but just 5.2 per target. I think Gurley is liable to disappoint as a runner if he doesn't get big openings, so to me he's just a tournament play in DFS (though still a fine one) since his receiving projection should probably be a bit less than usual.

Perhaps, even more than the defense, Leonard Fournette might be the general reason for favoring the Jaguars. It's not unreasonable – I think Fournette is better than Gurley, and the Rams have been friendly on the ground so far. Perhaps traveling across the country will bring out its worst tendencies. Even if not, Fournette could tear through a defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry to running backs. I think Kareem Hunt is the only running back I'd rank ahead of him this week.

Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh

Open: 47 O/U, KC -3.5
Press time: 47 O/U, KC -4

Kareem Hunt seems like the top fantasy player on the board this week, as the talented two-way threat gets a crack at a flailing Pittsburgh defense as a home favorite. The Steelers have allowed 648 yards and four touchdowns to running backs on 124 carries, and Hunt already looked matchup-proof.

If Travis Kelce (concussion) is able to go, he's locked in as the TE2, as he is almost any week Rob Gronkowski is active. While the Steelers have been tough to tight ends, Kelce is basically a different category altogether. Tyreek Hill and Alex Smith get a much tougher draw against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed a league low 417 yards to wide receivers on 75 targets.

While presumably whispering blame toward Martavis Bryant the rest of the time, Ben Roethlisberger acknowledged last week that his play wasn't meeting expectations. He could have mentioned his effort specifically, but perhaps Bryant made him quit on the pick-six plays he threw against the Jaguars.

As bad as Roethlisberger might be, Antonio Brown can't be doubted, even if it takes 19 targets to get there. Unless Kansas City moves Marcus Peters for the first time, Brown should run almost all his routes against the overmatched duo of Terrance Mitchell and Phillip Gaines. Those two cannot cover him. Juju Smith-Schuster has some long-shot appeal as he should primarily see Gaines in the slot.

Le'Veon Bell was a letdown last week, though it took a five-interception game from Roethlisberger for that to happen. If Roethlisberger doesn't single-handedly lose for the second week in a row, Bell should see more sustained usage as a runner, which should set him up for a bounce back effort against a Chiefs defense that's allowed 4.1 yards per carry to running backs to this point.

Oakland vs. Chargers

Open: N/A
Press time: N/A

I don't know if the absence of David Amerson at corner is what allowed Joe Flacco to throw deep on Oakland last week, but it doesn't seem like the kind of thing you let happen if your pass defense isn't bad. Philip Rivers should get something going in this one, and ideally Derek Carr (transverse process fracture) would be effective on the other side, raising the probability of a shootout scenario.

Keenan Allen should have a big game as Rivers' far and away favorite target – after Antonio Brown, there might not be a better bet for double-digit targets in any given week. You figure one of but not both of Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin could put up nice numbers here, but Rivers' inability to throw downfield has left the two with a combined 49 targets while Allen alone has seen 52. Hunter Henry is another strong projection for this game after seeing 11 targets over the last two weeks.

If Rivers is moving the ball well, it should set up scoring opportunities for Melvin Gordon, too. The Raiders should otherwise prove a modest resistance at most against Gordon's from-scrimmage production – they're allowing 4.2 yards per carry and 9.6 yards per target to opposing running backs so far.

After seeing Casey Hayward get beat for a deep touchdown by Roger Lewis last week, I've convinced myself, perhaps foolishly, into some level of optimism for Amari Cooper. I refuse to believe his season to this point is reflective of his talent, and if Carr is able to play vaguely productively there might be some production to go around. Michael Crabtree is of course in play to an equal extent, and I suppose it could be argued he deserves a higher projection since he's simply outplayed Cooper so far this year. While they put up with him last week, I'm staying away from Jared Cook in case the Raiders have since tired of his clumsy hands.

Marshawn Lynch should be able to run with relative comfort against a Chargers run defense that has posed minimal resistance so far, but it's not easy to see him getting big usage with how often the Raiders use Jalen Richard (and DeAndre Washington, perhaps returning from injury) off the bench. It's been over a month since Lynch went over 12 carries in a game.

Denvers vs. Giants

Open: 41 O/U, DEN -9
Press time: 39.5 O/U, DEN -11.5

No Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall or Sterling Shepard, and now you go to Denver. Good luck, Eli. As much as Eli might be doomed, I think Evan Engram might be able to put up some garbage time numbers in this one. Those receivers aren't getting open, and Engram is a tough cover down the middle in a game where he could easily see double-digit targets.

I think Wayne Gallman is pretty clearly better than Orleans Darkwa, and he might have some sneaky PPR viability in a game where the receivers are almost always blanketed, but it's exceptionally difficult to see him getting much going on the ground. The Broncos have allowed 157 yards to running backs on 68 carries.

On the other side, I love this matchup for C.J. Anderson against a dubious Giants defense that's liable to completely quit on its embarrassing imminently-fired coach. Jamaal Charles is more flex-viable than most weeks, too, though his limited volume mutes whatever DFS tournament appeal might otherwise be there.

Trevor Siemian will have more throwing avenues than usual with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out of the picture, and could too benefit from a plausible scenario where the Giants straight up quit. I have no idea whether it's Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders who catches more of Janoris Jenkins, but whoever isn't on him is getting open. I wouldn't chase A.J. Derby's numbers from his last game despite the great matchup against a Giants defense that gives up big production to tight ends – we don't even know if Derby is the No. 1 tight end over Virgil Green yet.

Tennessee vs. Indianapolis

Open: N/A
Press time: N/A

If Marcus Mariota (hamstring) is out, I just don't want anything to do with Titans pass catchers. Since his uncertainty may drag into Monday, I'd act as if Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker aren't options this week. DeMarco Murray has at least flex viability in season-long formats, I suppose, but the Colts have defended the run well this year.

On the other side, I have minimal interest in Frank Gore as he faces a competent Tennessee run defense with Marlon Mack an increasing threat to steal snaps in obvious running situations.

The Indianapolis passing game could have some utility, though. If the Colts running game struggles, they'll be forced to seek movement through the air, where the Titans are particularly vulnerable. T.Y. Hilton is an elite wideout who can't be covered by almost any defense, so he'll definitely get open against these guys. With Jack Doyle (concussion) iffy, Hilton's target count should be even more assured than usual. The Titans are allowing over four yards per carry to quarterbacks, so Jacoby Brissett might be able to keep it going on the ground, too.