Payne's Perspective: Barkley's Fantasy Value

Payne's Perspective: Barkley's Fantasy Value

This article is part of our Payne's Perspective series.

Saquon Barkley opened a lot of eyes Friday at the Combine, posting a 4.40 40 – seen here – a 41-inch vertical leap and 29 reps at the 225-pound bench press – seen here. Immediately, social media and "experts" everywhere compared these marks to current NFL stars, showing how dominant Barkley's performance was.

However, in many cases this was grabbing low-hanging fruit using Combine stats from superstars who did not perform up to their potential. Unless you think Barkley would be a better offensive lineman than Joe Thomas (28 reps at the bench press) because he did better at the Combine. Of course, this could also mean that the stats from the Combine can be extremely overrated as well, at least in certain cases.

But who is Saquon Barkley? Barkley was born in the Bronx on Feb. 9, 1997, putting him just a shade older than 21. His family moved to Bethlehem, Penn., where he rushed for 1,856 yards with 31 touchdowns as high school senior. As a result, he was considered a four-star recruit (three-star by Scout) and committed to Rutgers. However, coach James Franklin convinced Barkley to de-commit from Rutgers and attend Penn State, something Barkley later said was one of the hardest decisions he ever made. What many don't realize is Rutgers, for whatever reason, had 13 players de-commit that 2014 season.

In three years at Penn State, Barkley rushed for at least 1,076 yards each season and had 3,801 yards from scrimmage with 44

Saquon Barkley opened a lot of eyes Friday at the Combine, posting a 4.40 40 – seen here – a 41-inch vertical leap and 29 reps at the 225-pound bench press – seen here. Immediately, social media and "experts" everywhere compared these marks to current NFL stars, showing how dominant Barkley's performance was.

However, in many cases this was grabbing low-hanging fruit using Combine stats from superstars who did not perform up to their potential. Unless you think Barkley would be a better offensive lineman than Joe Thomas (28 reps at the bench press) because he did better at the Combine. Of course, this could also mean that the stats from the Combine can be extremely overrated as well, at least in certain cases.

But who is Saquon Barkley? Barkley was born in the Bronx on Feb. 9, 1997, putting him just a shade older than 21. His family moved to Bethlehem, Penn., where he rushed for 1,856 yards with 31 touchdowns as high school senior. As a result, he was considered a four-star recruit (three-star by Scout) and committed to Rutgers. However, coach James Franklin convinced Barkley to de-commit from Rutgers and attend Penn State, something Barkley later said was one of the hardest decisions he ever made. What many don't realize is Rutgers, for whatever reason, had 13 players de-commit that 2014 season.

In three years at Penn State, Barkley rushed for at least 1,076 yards each season and had 3,801 yards from scrimmage with 44 touchdowns. This doesn't include the 507 yards and two scores he also had in the return game the last two seasons. He proved himself as a pass-catching back as well increasing his receptions from 20 to 28 to 54 over his three season as a Nittany Lion. Here are some numbers that stick out about Barkley:

averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry every season at Penn State

had at least 100 yards from scrimmage in 23 of 37 (62 percent) collegiate games (taking out his first college game where he had one carry for one yard)

despite the gaudy numbers only had more than 20 carries in eight of his 37 games

Sept. 23 at Iowa, totaled 305 yards from scrimmage on 40 touches, showing the type of upside he has with volume

completed two passes for 36 yards and a touchdown his senior year, just something in his skill set he could use once a season at the pro level

The stellar college career along with his Combine numbers make Barkley almost a lock go in the top 4 of the draft with some rumblings that he could go to the Browns at No. 1 overall. Cleveland could then turn around and take a quarterback at No. 4, considering Barkley may not last until then with the Giants and Colts drafting at No. 2 and No. 3. Franklin has nothing but raved about Barkley's character, and it's nearly impossible to find anything negative written about him from that standpoint. One of the few concerns with Barkley is his pass protection, which could leave him limited on third down if he can't protect his quarterback. However, that's a worst-case scenario as most project him for a three-down back and he should learn pass-pro quickly given his physical makeup.

Now the question is: where do fantasy owners draft Barkley this season? Obviously, this is predicated on where he lands and that team's roster construction. It would appear that where he should end up (Giants, Colts or Browns) would be the best landing places. The Giants have enough receiving pieces in place to keep defenses honest; a healthy Andrew Luck would do wonders for the Colts, but if not, they may go to a run-heavy offense. The Browns might be the favorites, and from what we've seen with Todd Haley in Pittsburgh he's not afraid to ride a workhorse at running back game in and game out.

Let's start out where you would take Barkley overall in a draft, acknowledging that every draft is unique and unpredictable. It seems like if he falls to the second round, that's a gift. But would you have the guts to take him 6-12 in a standard 12-team draft? Let me throw out a list of running backs and see if you would take Barkley or the following first in a .5 PPR format unless otherwise listed:

David Johnson
Kareem Hunt
Leonard Fournette
Ezekiel Elliott (full-point PPR)
Melvin Gordon
Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram

Makes you think, right? Let's go onto another question. I have a start-up dynasty league that I'm drafting in August (already the date has been booked), where do you take Barkley at the ripe old age of 21? He's top-5 for sure, but do you take him first over Deshaun Watson, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, Odell Beckham Jr.? Considering he's two years younger than any of those players (other than Watson), there's a strong case for Barkley at No.1.

What do you think?

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin Payne
Kevin has worked for RotoWire over a decade and has covered basketball, baseball and football. A glutton for punishment, he roots for his hometown Bills, Sabres and the New York Yankees. You can follow him on Twitter @KCPayne26.
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