NFL Game Previews: Titans-Texans Matchup

Tennessee (+6) at Houston, 41.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Story: Another week, another injury scare for Marcus Mariota. Last week's stinger won't cost him a start, but it definitely cost the Titans any chance of beating the Colts, as Blaine Gabbert didn't do much in his absence. Mariota's only missed one full game this season, but it seems like he's only been close to 100 percent healthy for a few of his starts, and facing J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney puts him one missed block away from the sidelines again. Of course, Tennessee beat Houston in the one game Mariota sat out, so maybe it's not such a big deal after all. The Texans have come a long way since then, though, They've won seven straight, making them the hottest team in the AFC and definitely the hottest team no one seems to talk about. That might be because Deshaun Watson hasn't been putting up the fireworks he did as a rookie. He hasn't thrown for more than 300 yards since Week 5 and has only thrown more than two TD passes once all year, but he's still having a strong season, sitting eighth in the league in YPA (seventh, if you lump Tampa's QBs together). His yardage decline is largely a product of the Texans leaning more heavily on Lamar Miller. The RB has 459 scrimmage yards in the five games since Watson last topped 300, and with D'Onta Foreman likely still a couple of weeks away from joining the mix, Miller will continue having to carry the load.

The Skinny:
•TEN injuries: none
•HOU injuries: WR DeAndre Hopkins (questionable, foot); DE Watt (questionable, knee); WR Keke Coutee (questionable, hamstring); LB Zach Cunningham (questionable, knee)
•TEN DFS chalk: none
•HOU DFS chalk: Hopkins (32 percent target share, 41 percent of team Air Yards, TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
•TEN DFS tournament plays: Tajae Sharpe (HOU 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Jonnu Smith (HOU 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
•HOU DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 HOU, average score 27-17 HOU, average margin of victory 15 points. TEN has lost six straight games in Houston.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Derrick Henry grinds out 60 yards and a TD, while Dion Lewis adds 50 combined yards. Mariota throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Smith. Miller gains 80 combined yards. Watson throws for 270 yards and three scores, hitting Hopkins twice and Demaryius Thomas once, while running for 50 more. Texans, 27-17

Cleveland (+3) at Cincinnati, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Browns are coming of a bye and a big win over the Falcons before that, and the firing of Hue Jackson does seem to have sparked the team. Baker Mayfield is also coming off his best game as a pro – he threw as many TDs against Atlanta as he had incompletions – but it's the backfield that's been the backbone of the offense. Nick Chubb has found the end zone four times in four games since Carlos Hyde was sent packing, and Duke Johnson has three scores in two games since the coaching change. Speaking of Hue, the Bengals brought him in as "special assistant to the head coach", which must be great for offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's confidence and sense of job security. You also have to wonder what it was about his tenure in Cleveland that made Marvin Lewis want him in Cincinnati in any capacity. The Bengals have lost four of their last five but remarkably remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. The combined 96-24 score in their two routs at the hands of the Chiefs and Saints demonstrate how much of a threat to the elite teams in the league they actually are, though. A.J. Green hasn't officially been ruled out yet but hasn't practiced all week, and in the two contests he's missed so far, Andy Dalton has a 55.4 percent completion rate, 6.5 YPA, 3:2 TD:INT and has averaged only 182 passing yards a game. Now he faces a Browns defense that ranks third in QB rating against. Yikes.

The Skinny:
•CLE injuries: TE David Njoku (questionable, knee)
•CIN injuries: WR Green (questionable, toe)
•CLE DFS chalk: Chubb (CIN 32nd in rushing yards allowed)
•CIN DFS chalk: Joe Mixon (CLE 28th in rushing yards allowed)
•CLE DFS tournament plays: Johnson (CIN 32nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•CIN DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 CIN, average score 26-12 CIN, average margin of victory 20 points. Keep in mind, CLE only has a .188 winning percentage (15-65) in those seasons, so CIN losing twice to them during that period is kind of inexcusable. They have won seven in a row, though.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, 10-11 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chubb bangs out 120 combined yards and a TD. Mayfield throws for 230 yards and two scores, hitting Duke and Antonio Callaway. Mixon responds with 130 combined yards and a touchdown, while Giovani Bernard adds 60 combined yards. Dalton throws for 210 yards and a TD to Tyler Boyd. Bengals, 23-21

San Francisco (+3.5) at Tampa Bay, 54.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Nick Mullens finally got a chance to catch his breath over the Niners' bye week. Unexpectedly thrust into the starting lineup, he's produced one outstanding performance against the Raiders and one erratic one against the Giants, but on paper this matchup definitely skews more toward the former. The Bucs' pass defense has been woeful, and the only QB they've held below 20 points all year has been Alex Smith. Mullens might well be in Smith's class – heck, that comparison could end up being flattering – but Tampa's been particularly vulnerable to tight ends, which is bad news with George Kittle coming to town. The Bucs' offense remains surprisingly effective despite Dirk Koetter's inability to simply pick a quarterback and stick with him, and Peyton Barber's emergence as a reasonable approximation of a starting running back has provided some balance and stability amidst all the long bombs and interceptions. Jameis Winston does have a career-high 8.4 YPA in his five appearances, but he's also been picked off at least once in all of them, and his 8:11 TD:INT isn't what you'd call encouraging.

The Skinny:
•SF injuries: WR Pierre Garcon (out, knee); LB Reuben Foster (questionable, hamstring)
•TB injuries: WR DeSean Jackson (questionable, thumb); RB Ronald Jones II (questionable, hamstring); LB Lavonte David (out, knee); DE Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, knee)
•SF DFS chalk: Kittle (TB 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
•TB DFS chalk: none
•SF DFS tournament plays: Mullens (TB 32nd in QB rating against), Matt Breida (TB tied for 31st in rushing TDs allowed), Marquise Goodwin (10th in league in average Air yards/target, TB 28th in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA against deep throws)
•TB DFS tournament plays: Adam Humphries (SF 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 9-10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Breida scampers for 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Mullens throws for 280 yards and three TDs, one each to Kittle, Goodwin and Kendrick Bourne. Barber manages just 50 yards, while Jones surprises with 70 yards and a score. Winston throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns of his own, hitting Humphries once and Cameron Brate twice while Mike Evans tops 100 yards. Buccaneers, 34-31

Jacksonville at Buffalo (+3), 37.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Jags couldn't close the deal against the Steelers last week, losing their sixth straight game and basically ending whatever faint postseason hopes they might have been clinging to. The defense remains solid – they held Pittsburgh to 20 points and once again tormented Ben Roethlisberger – but the offense's collapse continues to be their downfall. Leonard Fournette has scored three times in two games since returning to action, but that hasn't helped Blake Bortles find the level of competence he displayed in 2017. It's not entirely his fault, as the offensive line is in bad shape. So bad, in fact, that they've been forced to turn to former Giants whipping boy Ereck Flowers at left tackle. While it would be hilarious if he salvages his career by performing well down the stretch in Jacksonville, it's more likely that Bortles will continue to have no time in the pocket, and really no dependable receivers to throw it to when he does get a moment to look downfield. All that said, they are still playing the Bills this week. Josh Allen is expected to make his return at quarterback for Buffalo, just in time to face a frustrated Jalen Ramsey and company. The rookie has a 2:5 TD:INT in his six NFL games so far – he's run for more TDs than he's thrown – and that doesn't seem likely to improve much in this spot.

The Skinny:
•JAC injuries: WR D.J. Chark (out, quad)
•BUF injuries: TE Charles Clay (doubtful, hamstring)
•JAC DFS chalk: Jaguars DST (BUF 32nd in points scored/game, tied for 30th in giveaways, tied for 29th in sacks allowed)
•BUF DFS chalk: none
•JAC DFS tournament plays: none
•BUF DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Fournette grinds out 70 yards and a score. Bortles throws for under 200 yards and tosses a pick-six to Tremaine Edmunds, but does run for 40 and a TD of his own. LeSean McCoy manages 60 yards. Allen throws for less than 200 yards as well and gets picked off twice. Jaguars, 17-10

Oakland (+10.5) at Baltimore, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Raiders dealt a cruel blow to their chances of coming away with the first overall pick next year with last week's win in Arizona, but they're still one of the three two-win teams left (the Cards and Niners are the others), and their remaining schedule doesn't even have many plausible upset spots on it. Derek Carr did throw TD passes for only the second time in his last five games last week, but he also hasn't thrown an INT in that stretch, and Oakland's offense is definitely prioritizing safety over explosive plays at the moment. You can hardly blame them, as the receiving corps lacks anyone who can reliably stretch the field and the team can't exactly lean on their banged-up backfield either. The Ravens are 5-5, but are in a good spot in the AFC wild-card race and in theory could even catch the Steelers, who are only two games up on them. Lamar Jackson's first start was a success in that Baltimore won, but running for as many yards as you throw isn't a sustainable business model in the NFL. Last week's 26 carries almost has to regress, no matter how many RPO variations John Harbaugh calls, and until Jackson proves he move the ball through the air, Joe Flacco seems like he'll still have a starting job waiting for him when he gets healthy. An Oakland defense that ranks 30th in QB rating against gives the rookie a golden opportunity to do it, though. Alex Collins might not be so lucky. He's nursing a foot injury, leaving the door open for undrafted rookie Gus Edwards to build on last week's out-of-nowhere 17-115-1 line and claim the No. 1 RB spot for the rest of the year.

The Skinny:
•OAK injuries: WR Jordy Nelson (questionable, knee); WR Martavis Bryant (out, knee)
•BAL injuries: QB Flacco (out, hip); RB Collins (questionable, foot)
•OAK DFS chalk: none
•BAL DFS chalk: Ravens DST (OAK 30th in points scored/game, tied for 26th in sacks allowed)
•OAK DFS tournament plays: none
•BAL DFS tournament plays: Edwards / Alex Collins (OAK 31st in rushing yards allowed/game), Jackson (see above), Mark Andrews (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. TE), Willie Snead (OAK 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Doug Martin leads the Raiders backfield with only 40 yards. Carr throws for 220 yards. Edwards shines again, piling up 90 yards and a score. Jackson throws for 230 yards and a TD to Andrews while running for 50 yards and a touchdown of his own. Ravens, 27-6

Seattle (+3.5) at Carolina, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: In terms of playoff ramifications, this might be Sunday's most interesting clash. The 5-5 Seahawks and 6-4 Panthers are both out of the picture for division titles but very much alive in the NFC wild-card race, but with Carolina having lost two straight in demoralizing fashion (a blowout loss to the Steelers, then a heartbreaker on a missed and arguably unnecessary two-point convert attempt against the Lions) it's Seattle that seems like it might have momentum coming in, for whatever that's worth. Chris Carson resumed starting RB duties last week, leaving Rashaad Penny wondering exactly what he has to do to earn the job. The increased reliance on the ground game has cut into Russell Wilson's yardage, but he's been more efficient than ever, posting a 23:5 TD:INT on the year and tossing multiple touchdowns in every game but one so. Christian McCaffrey's performance has been very impressive, but the Panthers continue to go only as far as Cam Newton can take them, as his bad miss on that two-point attempt illustrated so clearly. They are one of five teams in the NFL undefeated at home, but that streak will run headlong into Newton's own career futility against the 'Hawks. He's 1-4 against them in five starts, and even if their secondary isn't what it was at its Legion of Boom peak, Newton's career 69.8 QB rating versus Seattle is his lowest against any team in the NFL.

The Skinny:
•SEA injuries: WR Doug Baldwin (questionable, groin); LB K.J. Wright (out, knee)
•CAR injuries: WR Devin Funchess (doubtful, back); WR Torrey Smith (questionable, knee)
•SEA DFS chalk: none
•CAR DFS chalk: McCaffrey (SEA 28th in YYPC allowed)
•SEA DFS tournament plays: Nick Vannett (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
•CAR DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Carson finds 70 yards, while Penny adds 50. Wilson throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns to Vannett and Tyler Lockett. McCaffrey erupts for 130 combined yards and two TDs. Newton throws for less than 200 yards but does hit D.J. Moore for a score. Panthers, 24-20

New England at N.Y. Jets (+9.5), 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: It's a testament to how used we all are to greatness from Tom Brady and Bill Belichick that this team seems like it's underachieving at 7-3. Their three losses haven't exactly been to the league's elite, though. A Week 2 loss to the Jags doesn't look as likely in retrospect, and dropping decisions to the Lions and Titans isn't the Patriots way. Injuries have been a big part of the story, with Sony Michel's knee troubles dating back to the offseason and aging players like Rob Gronkowski simply reaching the point where their bodies are breaking down. They're still two games clear of the Dolphins in the AFC East, though, and another division title is almost a formality. The Jets getting another early draft pick also seems like a fait accompli, and they can't blame it on Sam Darnold's foot injury. They've lost four straight by an average of 18 points, and the shellacking they received from the Bills (the Bills!) before their Week 11 bye looks an awful lot like a team trying to get its coach fired. The Jets often keep things close in this rivalry, especially at home, but it's hard to see a path to this one being competitive.

The Skinny:
•NE injuries: QB Brady (questionable, knee); RB Michel (questionable, knee); TE Rob Gronkowski (questionable, back)
•NYJ injuries: QB Darnold (out, foot); WR Robby Anderson (questionable, ankle); S Marcus Maye (doubtful, shoulder)
•NE DFS chalk: none
•NYJ DFS chalk: none
•NE DFS tournament plays: none
•NYJ DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 NE, average score 25-17 NE, average margin of victory nine points. Only two of the last 10 meetings have been decided by more than one score, but they're both been NE wins and have come in the last three games.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Michel runs for 60 yards and a TD. Brady throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett. Elijah McGuire leads the Jets backfield with 80 combined yards. Josh McCown throws 220 yards and a score to Quincy Enunwa. Patriots, 24-13

N.Y. Giants (+6) at Philadelphia, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: There's a crude metric I start to pay attention to around this point in the season when looking at matchups, to help me decide what kind of outcome to write up, and that's net QB rating. I mainly use it in an effort to determine how lopsided a win might be, but sometimes the numbers are so contrary to what I expected that I have to re-evaluate the whole game. This is one of those games. Despite everything that's happened through 11 weeks, the Eagles still feel like the defending champs, and a team that could flip the switch at any time, while the Giants feel like a team playing out the string on Eli Manning's career. Net QB rating, however, says that these two team's passing attacks are light years apart, no matter how un-Eli-able New York's veteran signal-caller has been. The Giants are plus-9.2 (ninth in the league overall, ahead of Tom Brady's Pats and Aaron Rodgers' Packers), while the Eagles are minus-2.2, 18th in the NFL. New York's receiving tree is narrow – Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard, talented young players, have only seen 12 combined targets in the last two games – but when the main options are Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley, it's hard to go too wrong. They'll also be matched up against an Eagles secondary that's been absolutely gutted by injuries. They have two starting DBs on IR (Ronald Darby and Rodney McLeod), and four other corners are on the injury report this week and haven't been able to practice. Carson Wentz will be looking for redemption after last week's no-show, but even if the Philly passing game gets going, they might be forced to win in a shootout.

The Skinny:
•NYG injuries: none
•PHI injuries: RB Darren Sproles (out, hamstring); CB Jalen Mills (out, foot)
•NYG DFS chalk: none
•PHI DFS chalk: none
•NYG DFS tournament plays: Shepard (PHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•PHI DFS tournament plays: Alshon Jeffery (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Golden Tate (NYG 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 PHI, average score 28-19 PHI, average margin of victory 11 points. PHI has won four straight, including a 34-13 victory in Week 6.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Barkley piles up 160 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Manning throws for 250 yards and two more TDs to Beckham (who tops 100 yards) and Shepard. Josh Adams leads the Eagles backfield with 60 yards. Wentz lights it up, throwing for 330 yards and a season-high four touchdowns, two to Jeffery (who tops 100 yards) and one each to Tate and Zach Ertz. Eagles, 34-31

Arizona (+12) at LA Chargers, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: When you only have two wins, you look for all the positive signs for the future you can. Sure, the Cards lost to the Raiders last week, but Josh Rosen threw for a career-high three touchdowns and continues to show developing chemistry with fellow rookie Christian Kirk. Their pass defense remains solid, and David Johnson has struck for triple-digit scrimmage yards in three straight games. There are some building blocks here that suggest they may not be in the wilderness for too long. As for their Week 12 opponent, all I can say is LOL. The Chargers really should have renamed themselves the Lucys when they moved from San Diego, because they have an uncanny knack for suckering everyone into believing in them yet again before yanking the football away. Last week's loss to the Broncos, in a game they were winning 19-7 late in the third quarter, cost them a golden opportunity to close ground on the Chiefs and keep alive their chances of stealing the AFC West title. Even in defeat, Philip Rivers threw for two TDs like clockwork and topped 400 yards for the second time this season, but Melvin Gordon failed to find the end zone for the first time since Week 1 (coincidentally, also Rivers' last 400-yard performance). The Bolts are still headed for a wild-card spot – they're two games ahead of everyone else in the picture – but no matter how good their numbers are, or who they're playing, they remain a team capable of giving away even the surest victory.

The Skinny:
•ARI injuries: S Budda Baker (questionable, knee); LB Deone Bucannon (out, chest)
•LAC injuries: RB Gordon (questionable, knee/hamstring); WR Tyrell Williams (questionable, quad)
•ARI DFS chalk: none
•LAC DFS chalk: Gordon (ARI tied for 27th in rushing TDs allowed), Chargers DST (ARI 31st in points scored/game, 29th in sacks allowed)
•ARI DFS tournament plays: none
•LAC DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Johnson gallops for 120 combined yards and a TD. Rosen throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Michael Davis returns to the house. Gordon picks up 100 combined yards and a touchdown, while Austin Ekeler adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Rivers throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Mike Williams. Chargers, 31-10

Miami (+9) at Indianapolis, 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Ryan Tannehill is back under center for Miami, but is he really much of an improvement over Brock Osweiler? The Dolphins were 2-2 with Tannehill before he got hurt in Week 5, and 2-3 against a slightly tougher schedule under Osweiler. Tannehill's QBR is 92.9; Osweiler's is 86.1, and neither one of them is averaging 200 passing yards a game. Sure, the rest of the roster might get an emotional boost from the starter's return, but that would seem to be about it. They remain one of those teams that are in the wild-card muddle without really being good as much, other than a ball-hawking secondary (second in INTs at 15). The Colts are also 5-5, but they've won straight and (mostly) taken full advantage of the soft spot in their schedule. Yeah, they've won by an average of nearly 20 points in those four victories, but that was against teams with a combined .325 winning percentage, and the one credible opponent during that run (last week's win over the Titans) lost their QB early in the game. The Dolphins may not be great, but they're at least better than a Blaine Gabbert-led Tennessee squad. Indy's offensive eruption has coincided with more balance in the running game. Marlon Mack got healthy and has five rushing TDs in those four wins, giving defenses something else to worry about other than Andrew Luck – or rather, forcing opposing defenses to choose the form of their destructor, since Luck has been all but unstoppable lately. It took him a few weeks to shake off the rust, but he's now thrown at least three TD passes in seven consecutive games. One more, and he breaks a third-place tie with Dolphins legend Dan Marino in the record books and moves into a tie for second with Colts legend Peyton Manning, because the NFL's schedule-makers have a gift for constructing these sorts of narratives. Incidentally, the record-holder is Tom Brady with 10 straight games in 2007. Indy's next two games are on the road against the Jags and Texans, so if Luck gets there, he'll have earned it.

The Skinny:
•MIA injuries: WR DeVante Parker (questionable, shoulder); WR Danny Amendola (questionable, hamstring)
•IND injuries: none
•MIA DFS chalk: none
•IND DFS chalk: Mack (MIA 30th in rushing yards allowed/game)
•MIA DFS tournament plays: none
•IND DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Frank Gore's revenge game amounts to 60 yards, but he does score his first rushing TD of the year. Kenyan Drake leads the Dolphins backfield with 70 combined yards. Tannehill throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Kenny Stills and Amendola. Mack thunders for 130 combined yards and a score. Luck keeps rolling, throwing for 250 yards and three TDs, finding T.Y. Hilton twice and Eric Ebron once. Colts, 31-24

Pittsburgh at Denver (+3), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: The Steelers kept their win streak alive last week by the skin of their teeth, but with seven wins and a tie, they'd actually be the AFC's No. 2 seed if the playoffs started now. Ben Roethlisberger may have had one of his worst games of the season against his nemesis the Jags, but he still threw for more than 300 yards for the sixth time in 10 games and engineered the late comeback. Somewhat surprisingly given their recent history of string secondaries, the Broncos haven't presented him with similar problems in his career, as he's averaging 316.2 yards and 2.6 TDs in five games against Denver. The Broncos are coming off an upset of the Chargers, but they'd lost six of seven before that, and other than Phillip Lindsay's emergence, not much else has gone right for them this year. Their run defense in particular has completely fallen apart. Denver led the league in YPC allowed last season, but in 2018 they're 24th, with similar rankings in rushing yards allowed per game and passing game DVOA allowed to running backs. That's not a good place to be in with James Conner coming to town and looking to redeem himself after arguably his his worst game of the season.

The Skinny:
•PIT injuries: none
•DEN injuries: LB Brandon Marshall (out, knee)
•PIT DFS chalk: Conner (see above)
•DEN DFS chalk: none
•PIT DFS tournament plays: none
•DEN DFS tournament plays: Jeff Heuerman (PIT 27th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner reels off 140 combined yards and two touchdowns. Roethlisberger throws for 330 yards and TDs to Antonio Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Vance McDonald. Lindsay answers back with 90 combined yards and a score. Case Keenum throws for 240 yards and a TD to Courtland Sutton. Steelers, 31-20

Green Bay (+3.5) at Minnesota, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: Daniel Carlson is now in Oakland, so in theory we won't get yet another tie in this series here. Maybe. The Packers increasingly look like they need yet another Christmas miracle from Aaron Rodgers if they're going to make the playoffs. Their only credible win came back in Week 1 (24-23 over the Bears), and they've dropped three of their last four to fall below .500. Aaron Jones finally being entrusted with the No. 1 RB job has made fantasy GMs happy (five TDs in his last four games) but it isn't putting wins on the board. The problem is, they don't have many other options to generate points. Davante Adams has certainly benefited from being the only receiver Rodgers really trusts, either scoring or topping 100 yards in every game but one this year, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling's flashes of upside haven't stopped him from looking like a rookie at times. Their all-world QB is certainly capable of running the table despite the lack of weapons around him, but his margin for error at this point is razor thin. The Vikings are in slightly better shape at 5-4-1, but last week's loss to the Bears all but ended any thoughts of them winning the NFC North, and they still have ground to make up to work their way into a wild-card spot. Adam Thielen and the passing game have slowed down, and Kirk Cousins has had issues protecting the ball – he has a 5:4 TD:INT in his last three games, and his six lost fumbles leads the NFL. The defense is nearly back to its 2017 performance level (third in YPC allowed, tied for fewest TD passes allowed, tied for sixth in sacks), but Minnesota will probably need Dalvin Cook to stay healthy and get going if they want to keep playing past Week 17.

The Skinny:
•GB injuries: WR Randall Cobb (questionable, hamstring); TE Jimmy Graham (questionable, thumb/knee)
•MIN injuries: S Andrew Sendejo (out, groin)
•GB DFS chalk: none
•MIN DFS chalk: none
•GB DFS tournament plays: Lance Kendricks (MIN 26th in DVOA vs. TE), Aaron Jones (MIN 31st in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•MIN DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 5-4-2 GB, average score 25-21 GB, average margin of victory 13 points. Only three of the nine meetings with a winner were decided by a single score.
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Jones manages 80 combined yards and a receiving score. Rodgers throws for 290 yards and a second TD to MVS. Cook jets for 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 270 yards and two scores to Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph. Vikings, 27-23

Chicago at Detroit (+3), 44.0 o/u – Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST

The Story: I'm struggling to remember a better Turkey Day slate. All three games Thursday are heated divisional rivalries, and all three feature that division's current leader. The Bears' defense remains a juggernaut, and long-time Chicago fans can probably be forgiven for drawing parallels to 1985 at this point. A one-win season is well off the table, and Tarik Cohen is no Walter Payton, but the Khalil Mack-led defense is holding up its end of that comparison, posting No. 1 rankings in YPC allowed, QB rating allowed and turnovers, and sitting top five in the major defensive categories where they aren't pacing the league. The big concern for the Bears coming into this one is Mitchell Trubisky's health. An injury to his throwing shoulder suffered late in Sunday's win over the Vikings has kept him out of practice on the short week, and backup Chase Daniel will have to start his first NFL game since 2014. Fortunately for them, they can probably just keep the ball on the ground and still coast to a win. The Lions may have been gifted a win when Cam Newton air-mailed his pass on that two-point convert, ending their three-game losing streak, but the team's run defense is among the worst in the league, and Matthew Stafford got sacked six times when these teams met just a couple of weeks ago. With rookie RB Kerryon Johnson likely to be sidelined, leaving Detroit with no running threat to keep the Chicago pass rush honest, only getting taken down a half-dozen times could look like a pleasant dream by the time this one's over.

The Skinny:
•CHI injuries: QB Trubisky (questionable, shoulder)
•DET injuries: RB Johnson (doubtful, knee); WR Marvin Jones (questionable, knee); WR Bruce Ellington (questionable, back); TE Michael Roberts (questionable, shoulder); CB Darius Slay (questionable, knee); DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, shoulder)
•CHI DFS chalk: Bears DST (see above)
•DET DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS tournament plays: Jordan Howard (DET 26th in YPC allowed), Cohen (same), Daniel (DET 31st in QB rating against), Allen Robinson (DET 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Anthony Miller (DET 29th in DVOA vs. WR2), Taylor Gabriel (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
•DET DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 DET, average score 25-22 DET, average margin of victory six points. CHI's 34-22 victory in Week 10 was their largest in this series since 2011.
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Cohen leads the Bears backfield with 70 combined yards and a score, while Howard bangs out 50 yards. Daniel throws for under 200 yards but does hit Robinson for a touchdown. Theo Riddick leads the Lions backfield with 50 combined yards. Stafford also throws for under 200 yards, getting sacked five times and picked off twice, with Roquan Smith returning one INT to the house. Bears, 24-6

Washington (+7) at Dallas, 40.5 o/u – Thursday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Story: While this clash could well end up deciding who wins the NFC East, both teams are dealing with tumultuous situations off the field. Alex Smith's season-ending broken leg had a number of eerie similarities to the injury that ended Joe Theismann's career 33 years earlier, and it's hard to predict how his teammates are going to react on a short week to that pall hanging over the locker room. Colt McCoy, who hasn't started a game since 2014, is now under center for a Washington squad trying desperately to cling to their division lead, but he does have a penchant for heroics in the Lone Star State dating to his college days – in fact, his last win as an NFL starter came in Dallas in Week 8 of 2014, when he threw for 299 yards and ran in a score in a 20-17 victory. The Cowboys family is also in mourning, though – rookie receiver Michael Gallup's brother took his own life last weekend. He seems intent on playing, so the stage is set on both sides for some emotional end-zone displays. The running games could well decide the winner, though. Ezekiel Elliott was held in check the last time they met, a 20-17 win for Washington, but since then he's exploded for an even 500 scrimmage yards and three TDs in three games. Adrian Peterson's season, however, has been headed in the opposite direction. During that same three-week stretch, AP has only managed 136 rushing yards and a 3.1 YPC, although he did score twice last week and gashed the Cowboys for 99 yards in their Week 7 contest.

The Skinny:
•WAS injuries: RB Chris Thompson (questionable, ribs); WR Jamison Crowder (questionable, ankle)
•DAL injuries: LB Sean Lee (out, hamstring); DT David Irving (questionable, ankle)
•WAS DFS chalk: none
•DAL DFS chalk: none
•WAS DFS tournament plays: McCoy (DAL 26th in QB rating against, 23rd in rushing yards allowed to QBs)
•DAL DFS tournament plays: Cole Beasley (WAS 25th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 DAL, average score 28-21 DAL, average margin of victory 10 points
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Peterson rumbles for 70 yards and a score. McCoy shows his Texas pride, throwing for 230 yards and a TD to Trey Quinn while running in a touchdown of his own. Elliott keeps rolling, gaining 160 combined yards and a TD. Dak Prescott throws for less than 200 yards but finds Beasley and Gallup for scores, and for the second straight week Brett Maher boots a game-winning field goal. Cowboys, 27-24

Atlanta (+13) at New Orleans, 60.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: When these two teams met in Week 3, it seemed like it might be an important game in the race for the NFC South crown. Both teams were 1-1 and had bounced back from losses in their openers, but if anything, Atlanta looked like the better team – it had lost a tough contest to the defending champs in Week 1 before dispatching Carolina, while New Orleans still had the stink of getting beaten by Ryan Fitzpatrick hanging on it and had barely gotten by Cleveland. A couple months later, and the 9-1 Saints have a legit claim to being the best team in the league, while the 4-6 Falcons, well, don't. Atlanta's loss to Dallas last week was its season in a microcosm – Matt Ryan posted strong numbers and Julio Jones remained seemingly unstoppable, but neither the offense nor the defense could come through with a crucial play when it mattered most. The Saints, meanwhile, just got done absolutely annihilating the Eagles, and have won their last two games by a combined score of 99-21. Those routs scream "sell high," and Atlanta is one of only three teams to stay within one score of them since their winning streak started, but Drew Brees and the boys just look like they could score 40 points in their sleep, and it's hard to imagine a Falcons defense that's been brutal against the run being even a speed bump to the twin pistons that are powering the Saints' offensive engine, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram – much less an actual obstacle.

The Skinny:
•ATL injuries: WR Calvin Ridley (questionable, thigh); LB Deion Jones (questionable, foot)
•NO injuries: WR Tre'Quan Smith (questionable, foot)
•ATL DFS chalk: Ryan (NO 27th in QB rating against), Julio (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•NO DFS chalk: Kamara and Ingram (ATL 31st in YPC allowed, tied for 27th in rushing TDs allowed, 26th in passing game DVOA vs. RB), Brees (ATL 29th in QB rating against), Michael Thomas (27 percent target share, ATL 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•ATL DFS tournament plays: Ridley (NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Tevin Coleman (NO 30th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•NO DFS tournament plays: Austin Carr (ATL 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 NO, average score 26-26, average margin of victory seven points. Only two of the last 11 meetings have been decided by more than 10 points, and seven of them by six points or less.
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Coleman rips off 100 combined yards and a receiving TD. Ryan throws for 320 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Ridley and Jones with the latter topping 100 yards. Kamara leads the Saints backfield with 120 combined yards and two scores, while Ingram adds 80 combined yards and a TD. Brees throws for 370 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Thomas (who tops 100 yards) twice and Taysom Hill once. Saints, 42-27

Last week's record: 6-7, 5-7-1 ATS, 4-8-1 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 98-61-2, 67-85-9 ATS, 70-89-2 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS