This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
L.A. Chargers (+4) at New England, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EST
The Story: Second time was the charm for the Chargers, as they avenged their Week 16 home loss to the Ravens by making the AFC North champs one-and-done back in Baltimore. They did it despite big offensive contributions from anybody, and while a tough closing schedule does bear some of the blame, the Bolts have almost no offensive momentum coming into this one – Philip Rivers hasn't broken 200 passing yards in any of his last three games, while Melvin Gordon hasn't rushed for more than 42 yards in a game since returning from his knee injury. The Patriots may not have an elite defense like the Ravens did, but they've been stingy most of the year, and the weather conditions won't be conducive to the Chargers' passing game suddenly heating up – even if Hunter Henry does make his season debut. New England wasn't exactly firing on all cylinders to close out the regular season either, though. They went 4-2 down the stretch to barely eke out a first-round bye, but three of those wins were against the Bills and Jets, which hardly counts, and their losses came against the going-nowhere Dolphins and a Steelers team that was otherwise in the middle of an epic collapse. Sure, sure, Tom Brady and company will just flip the switch in the playoffs, because of veteran savvy and they've been here before etc etc etc. They were also
L.A. Chargers (+4) at New England, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EST
The Story: Second time was the charm for the Chargers, as they avenged their Week 16 home loss to the Ravens by making the AFC North champs one-and-done back in Baltimore. They did it despite big offensive contributions from anybody, and while a tough closing schedule does bear some of the blame, the Bolts have almost no offensive momentum coming into this one – Philip Rivers hasn't broken 200 passing yards in any of his last three games, while Melvin Gordon hasn't rushed for more than 42 yards in a game since returning from his knee injury. The Patriots may not have an elite defense like the Ravens did, but they've been stingy most of the year, and the weather conditions won't be conducive to the Chargers' passing game suddenly heating up – even if Hunter Henry does make his season debut. New England wasn't exactly firing on all cylinders to close out the regular season either, though. They went 4-2 down the stretch to barely eke out a first-round bye, but three of those wins were against the Bills and Jets, which hardly counts, and their losses came against the going-nowhere Dolphins and a Steelers team that was otherwise in the middle of an epic collapse. Sure, sure, Tom Brady and company will just flip the switch in the playoffs, because of veteran savvy and they've been here before etc etc etc. They were also supposed to flip it in the second half, or after their Week 11 bye, and they never really did. Then again, for all the talk of how the offense has been sputtering, how badly they needed Josh Gordon or Rob Gronkowski or whoever, this is still a team that wound up fourth in the league in points per game, ahead of Andrew Luck's Colts, Matt Ryan's Falcons ... or Rivers' Chargers.
The Skinny:
•LAC injuries: TE Henry (questionable, knee)
•NE injuries: none
•LAC DFS chalk: Gordon (NE 29th in YPC allowed)
•NE DFS chalk: none
•LAC DFS tournament plays: none
•NE DFS tournament plays: Patriots DST (seventh in points allowed per game, tied for fifth in takeaways)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-20s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Gordon gains 60 combined yards and a TD, while Ekeler picks up 50. Rivers throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Keenan Allen. James White piles up 90 combined yards and a receiving score while Sony Michel runs for 70 yards. Brady throws for 260 yards and a second TD to Cordarrelle Patterson, but he also tosses a pick-six to Derwin James to keep things close. Patriots, 23-21
Philadelphia (+8) at New Orleans, 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:40 p.m. EST
The Story: Maybe it's fitting that the Eagles' road to a repeat takes them to New Orleans, as we were only denied this clash in last year's playoffs due to the Minnesota Miracle. Nick Foles continues to get wins and has thrown multiple TDs in three straight starts, but he's also thrown at least one pick in each of Philly's four straight victories, and the wild-card win over the Bears owed a lot more to Cody Parkey (and Treyvon Hester's fingertip) than it did to Foles. It's also not exactly clear what the Eagles' strength is right now. Alshon Jeffery has been the only consistent option with Foles under center; Zach Ertz and Darren Sproles have had their moments, but the offense as a whole has mostly been just good enough, while the defense has been solid but not up to last year's standards. At least one of those units is going to have to step up in a big way Sunday if they want this improbable Super Bowl defense to continue. If you don't count a meaningless Week 17 contest in which multiple starters were rested, the Saints have scored at least 30 points in five straight home games and six of seven this season with Drew Brees at the helm, including a 48-7 demolition of the Eagles back in Week 11 – a game in which Ted Ginn wasn't even in the lineup to give Brees a reliable field-stretching target. Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas and even Tre'Quan Smith each posted huge numbers in that rout, and while this one is likely to be a little closer, Philly's challenge in neutralizing those weapons is daunting.
The Skinny:
•PHI injuries: QB Carson Wentz (out, back)
•NO injuries: none
•PHI DFS chalk: Jeffery (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•NO DFS chalk: Brees (PHI 30th in passing yards allowed per game)
•PHI DFS tournament plays: Foles (NO 31st in passing yards allowed per game), Nelson Agholor (NO 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Sproles (NO 29th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•NO DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: dome
The Scoop: Sproles leads the Eagles backfield with 70 combined yards and a receiving TD, but Josh Adams also gains 50 yards and a score. Foles throws for 280 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Jeffery and Agholor. Kamara piles up 110 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving, while Ingram pounds out 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Brees throws for 320 yards and three total TDs, also hitting Thomas (who tops 100 yards) and Ginn. Saints, 38-31
Indianapolis (+5.5) at Kansas City, 57.0 o/u – Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST
The Story: The Colts dismantled the Texans last weekend, putting them firmly in the "trendy underdog" category heading into a much tougher matchup. It's really easy to like what Indy is doing. Their offensive line has been dominant, opening holes big enough for a Marlon Mack truck to run through and giving Andrew Luck all the time he needs in the pocket, and the young pieces on their defense have been stepping up. Last week's 21 points probably isn't going to cut it, though – in their four losses this season, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs still scored at least 28 points, averaging 37.5, which is as scathing an indictment of a defense as I think I've ever seen. Imagine averaging 37.5 points and going 0-4. I mean, jeez. The bye week also gave Kansas City a chance to heal up, which means Sammy Watkins might be able to handle his first significant game action since Week 9. The Chiefs' passing game hasn't exactly swooned without him, but putting one more arrow in Mahomes' quiver can't hurt. Spencer Ware alse seems ready to return, but Damien Williams didn't do anything down the stretch to warrant getting booted from the No. 1 role, rolling for 322 scrimmage yards and four TDs in the final three games of the regular season. If the Chiefs jump out to an early lead, you may want to resist the temptation to flip channels – when these two teams met in the 2013 playoffs, Luck brought the Colts back from an 38-10 deficit, the second-largest postseason comeback in NFL history. That game, though, was in the cozy confines of Lucas Oil Stadium, not in near-freezing temperatures at Arrowhead.
The Skinny:
•IND injuries: none
•KC injuries: RB Ware (questionable, hamstring); WR Watkins (questionable, foot)
•IND DFS chalk: Mack (KC 31st in YPC allowed, tied for 29th in rushing TDs allowed), Luck (KC 32nd in passing yards allowed per game)
•KC DFS chalk: Travis Kelce (IND 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
•IND DFS tournament plays: Chester Rogers (KC 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•KC DFS tournament plays: Chiefs DST (first in sacks, tied for seventh in takeaways)
•Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-20 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Mack rumbles for 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Luck throws for 270 yards and TDs to T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron. Williams leads the Chiefs backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving score, while Ware adds a rushing TD. Mahomes' playoff debut goes without a hitch, as he throws for 310 yards and three total touchdowns, also hitting Kelce (who tops 100 yards) and Tyreek Hill. Chiefs, 31-24
Dallas (+7) at LA Rams, 49.5 o/u – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Story: Is it actually possible that the Cowboys are underrated right now? America's Team usually seem to get more shine than they deserve, but for whatever reason, nobody outside of Dallas diehards considers them a real Super Bowl threat this season despite the fact that they've won eight of their last nine, including last weekend's squeaker over the Seahawks. Certainly they have the talent to make that kind of run. The defense features genuine studs at all three levels, and they boast as skilled a duo on offense as any squad still playing in Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper. Maybe it's the Dak Prescott factor. There is still massive debate over whether he's a "true" franchise QB and will ever be worth the big contract he's almost inevitably going to get from Jerry Jones, but in the here and now he's a guy who can play some erratic football but also comes through in the clutchan awful lot. On the other side of the ball, the Rams coasted to the finish line, going 2-2 over the last month with both losses coming against NFC playoff rivals (the Bears and Eagles), which could make Los Angeles fans nervous about a repeat of last year's quick postseason exit. The two rosters share a lot of similarities, though. Jared Goff's occasional lapses have caused some folks to wonder whether he's really just a product of Sean McVay's system. The Rams can match Elliott with Todd Gurley and Cooper with the Brandin Cooks/Robert Woods combo, and for all the talent the Cowboys have on defense, they don't have an Aaron Donald. The venue is also in L.A.'s favor – they went 7-1 at home while their opponent was 3-5 away from Dallas, but the Rams' one home loss was that Week 15 defeat at the hands of Philly when they still had a legit shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Skinny:
•DAL injuries: WR Cole Beasley (questionable, ankle); TE Blake Jarwin (questionable, ankle)
•LAR injuries: none
•DAL DFS chalk: Ezekiel Elliott (LAR 32nd in YPC allowed), Amari Cooper (LAR 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•LAR DFS chalk: none
•DAL DFS tournament plays: none
•LAR DFS tournament plays: Rams DST (third in takeaways, DAL 31st in sacks allowed)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Elliott erupts for 150 combined yards and two TDs. Prescott throws for 240 yards and runs for 40, finding Cooper for a score. Gurley reponds with 80 combined yards and two touchdowns of his own, one rushing and one receiving. Goff throws for 230 yards and a second TD to Josh Reynolds. Cowboys, 27-24
Last week's record: 0-4, 0-4 ATS, 3-1 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS
