Surviving Week 3
Surviving Week 3

This article is part of our Survivor series.

Last week you had to sweat a bit with the Ravens, while the Pats rolled. Hopefully, you didn't go off the board with the Panthers on Thursday night. 

Let's take a look at this week's slate. 

TeamOpponent%Taken*Vegas ML**Vegas OddsExpected Loss
COWBOYSDolphins56.40%245096.082.21
PATRIOTSJets17.90%280096.550.62
PACKERSBroncos8.10%34077.271.84
VIKINGSRaiders5.80%36578.491.25
49ERSSteelers3.50%27072.970.95
BUCCANEERSGiants2.10%267.572.790.57
BILLSBengals1.70%24070.590.50
EAGLESLions1.60%29074.360.41
SEAHAWKSSaints0.90%20066.670.30

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines

I used the Patriots last week, so I'm on the Cowboys this week, but the Patriots are obviously the best choice once again, given their modest ownership and overwhelming likelihood of winning. But assuming like me, Dallas were your only option, how high would their ownership have to be before you'd pivot to the Vikings, for example?

Let's start with the risk ratio. A Cowboys win/Vikings loss is .96 * .215  = .206. A Vikings win/Cowboys loss is .04 * .785 = .031. The ratio of .206 to .031 is 6.65. You're taking on nearly seven times as much risk with the Vikings. 

Let's look at the reward side of things. If you took the Cowboys and the Vikings lost, six people would go down with the Vikings, and roughly another six on other

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.
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