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As we navigate through the season, we are starting to see Top 5 candidates in every category crystallize a bit, but at this point, no one has come through with any of the top prizes! That won't stop us from trying, however
We ended up nailing one category in Week 10, but not enough to connect. Before diving into Week 11, let's take a look at last week's winners in every category.
WEEK 10 RESULTS
QB Passing Yards - Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes came back and didn't skip a beat. As you'll see below.
QB Completed Passes - Patrick Mahomes
He ran the table in the QB categories, but one of our picks (Winston) came in a close third.
RB Rushing Yards - Nick Chubb
Chubb eked out a surprising Joe Mixon in this category, so we weren't even close here.
RB Receiving Yards - Dalvin Cook
WR Receiving Yards - Tyreek Hill
For some reason, we put the Chiefs outside the lines, which was definitely the wrong call for the Pick8.
WR Receptions - Michael Thomas
Thomas is a guy that should be considered every week, but we missed this one too, with neither of our guys finishing in the Top 10.
FG Made - Younghoe Koo
Koo came out of nowhere and blitzed the competition with six field goals.
Defense Points Allowed - Falcons
Definitely the biggest surprise for any category.
Week 11 Targets
QB Passing Yards
Philip Rivers, SD vs. KC
It's a do-or-die game for the Chargers at 4-6 and Rivers will need to air it out. The Chiefs rank 22nd against opposing quarterbacks and 21st in total passing yards allowed.
Drew Brees, NO @ TB
The post-injury ceiling for Brees is sky-high, proving it with a 373-yard game in his first week back. He regressed a bit against Atlanta, but he was also sacked six times by a surprisingly tough Atlanta defense. The Bucs are quite forgiving against the pass, ranking 30th in passing yards allowed. That's a green light for Brees.
QB Passes Completed
Note, I also like Rivers here.
Tom Brady, NE at PHI
The weather might play a part in moving off this pick, but that's why we include two options. Brady currently ranks third among all quarterbacks in total completions, trailing only Rivers and Kyler Murray in that department.
Patrick Mahomes, KC @ SD
The Chiefs rushing attack hasn't been consistent enough, and that's why Mahomes swept the QB categories last week. I think he's good for at least one of the categories again this weekend.
RB Rushing Yards
Josh Jacobs, OAK vs. CIN
I expect coach John Gruden to lean on Jacobs the entire game. The Bengals rank 29th against opposing RB's, which is one of many metrics where the Bengals are weak.
Le'Veon Bell, NYJ @ WAS
We've been waiting for a big game from Bell, and he's certainly trended up recently. A slightly riskier pick than Jacobs due to an illness and various injuries Bell is experiencing this week.
RB Receiving Yards
Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. ATL
I don't believe in a repeat of Atlanta's stifling defense last week, but I do think McCaffrey will have more success in the passing game.
Leonard Fournette, JAX at IND
Fournette is coming off a bye and facing a team that can't keep their defense off the field. Yes, please. Expect Fournette to have a good all-around game, including some damage through the air.
WR Receiving Yards
Michael Thomas, NO @ TB
I think we should go with the WRs we already believe in, and so far Michael Thomas has come close or delivered in this category more than a few times. A sensible add.
Tyrell Williams, OAK vs. CIN
I view Williams as a sort of double indemnity insurance based on where the Raiders offense might go. If I put Jacobs and Williams on lines that don't intersect, I'll have a shot at least getting one of them.
Keenan Allen, SD vs. KC
I think the yardage will largely be spread around here, but in terms of frequency, Rivers will connect with Allen most. He always managed to get open and regularly sees 6-8 targets from his quarterback.
Chris Godwin, TB vs, ARI
This category is always a crapshoot, but Red Zone TD Conversion Rate is a good guide for FG made - the lower percentage, the better.
Diving into those stats reveal that Josh Lambo should be a reliable source of field-goal chances as the Jags take on the Colts in a potentially controlled environment.
I also think Harrison Butker is a smart pick, especially if you're a believer in San Diego's defense, which was remarkably effective last week.
Defense Points Allowed
Remember that we are strictly looking for points allowed, so we are trying to identify blowouts and goose-eggs.
I'm going to go with the Raiders squelching the Bengals, and the Bills dominating the Dolphins..