This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week, the Seahawks, Chargers and Steelers knocked out roughly 30 percent of pools, though I'm dubious the ownership numbers on Seattle were still accurate. Let's take a look at the season's final week:
Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Cardinals | 19.1% | 312.5 | 75.76 | 4.63 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 11.4% | 975 | 90.70 | 1.06 |
| COWBOYS | Redskins | 9.8% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 1.67 |
| Colts | JAGUARS | 9.4% | 175 | 63.64 | 3.42 |
| Saints | PANTHERS | 9.2% | 675 | 87.10 | 1.19 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 8.4% | 360 | 78.26 | 1.83 |
| Titans | TEXANS | 8.2% | 165 | 62.26 | 3.09 |
| Packers | LIONS | 7.7% | 675 | 87.10 | 0.99 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 4.3% | 165 | 62.26 | 1.62 |
| Browns | BENGALS | 2.8% | 140 | 58.33 | 1.17 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 1.9% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.90 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 1.6% | 200 | 66.67 | 0.53 |
| BUCCANEERS | Falcons | 0.9% | 100 | 50.00 | 0.45 |
| BILLS | Jets | 0.8% | 115 | 53.49 | 0.37 |
| Falcons | BUCCANEERS | 0.6% | 100 | 50.00 | 0.30 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 0.6% | 71.5 | 41.69 | 0.35 |
| JAGUARS | Colts | 0.5% | 57 | 36.31 | 0.32 |
| Steelers | RAVENS | 0.5% | 125 | 55.56 | 0.22 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual, ownership percentages this time of year depend more on the teams your competitors have left than what's posted above.
My Picks:
1. New England Patriots
They're playing for a bye, and the Dolphins are coming off a full overtime game and traveling to a cold-weather venue in late December. I give the Patriots a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. New Orleans Saints
This is a road game, and the Panthers almost beat the Saints in New Orleans,
Last week, the Seahawks, Chargers and Steelers knocked out roughly 30 percent of pools, though I'm dubious the ownership numbers on Seattle were still accurate. Let's take a look at the season's final week:
Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Cardinals | 19.1% | 312.5 | 75.76 | 4.63 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 11.4% | 975 | 90.70 | 1.06 |
| COWBOYS | Redskins | 9.8% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 1.67 |
| Colts | JAGUARS | 9.4% | 175 | 63.64 | 3.42 |
| Saints | PANTHERS | 9.2% | 675 | 87.10 | 1.19 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 8.4% | 360 | 78.26 | 1.83 |
| Titans | TEXANS | 8.2% | 165 | 62.26 | 3.09 |
| Packers | LIONS | 7.7% | 675 | 87.10 | 0.99 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 4.3% | 165 | 62.26 | 1.62 |
| Browns | BENGALS | 2.8% | 140 | 58.33 | 1.17 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 1.9% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.90 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 1.6% | 200 | 66.67 | 0.53 |
| BUCCANEERS | Falcons | 0.9% | 100 | 50.00 | 0.45 |
| BILLS | Jets | 0.8% | 115 | 53.49 | 0.37 |
| Falcons | BUCCANEERS | 0.6% | 100 | 50.00 | 0.30 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 0.6% | 71.5 | 41.69 | 0.35 |
| JAGUARS | Colts | 0.5% | 57 | 36.31 | 0.32 |
| Steelers | RAVENS | 0.5% | 125 | 55.56 | 0.22 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual, ownership percentages this time of year depend more on the teams your competitors have left than what's posted above.
My Picks:
1. New England Patriots
They're playing for a bye, and the Dolphins are coming off a full overtime game and traveling to a cold-weather venue in late December. I give the Patriots a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. New Orleans Saints
This is a road game, and the Panthers almost beat the Saints in New Orleans, but that was before Ron Rivera was fired and Will Grier took over at quarterback. I give the Saints, who might be playing for a first-round bye, an 88 percent chance to win this game.
3. Green Bay Packers
The Packers can lock up a first-round bye with a win, so they'll go all out. The Lions are terrible, but they're at home, and this is a rematch against a division rival. I give the Packers an 85 percent chance to win this game.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are probably playing for nothing, but I'd expect them to go all out for the unlikely event the Dolphins beat the Patriots, in which case the Chiefs would get a first-round bye. The Chargers are talented, but mismanaged, and I expect them to have a hard time on the road in Arrowhead. I give the Chiefs an 80 percent chance to win this game.
5. Dallas Cowboys
They're still in the hunt, as they win the NFC East with a win and an Eagles loss to the Giants, The Redskins have played better of late, and Case Keenum is probably an upgrade over Dwayne Haskins. I give the Cowboys a 75 percent chance to win this game.
6. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams killed the Cardinals a few weeks ago in Arizona, but now they've been eliminated from the playoffs, and Arizona is playing better on both sides of the ball. Of course, this presumes Kyler Murray can go, and in that case, I give the Rams a 72 percent chance to win this game. If Murray can't, bump them up to 82.
7. Tennessee Titans
Bill O'Brien says the Texans will go all out Sunday, but they're only playing to move up to the three seed from the four, and they need a Chargers upset win to do so. The Titans are going all out because they'll get in with a win, and they might be the better team anyway. I give the Titans a 67 percent chance to win this game.
8. Indianapolis Colts
It's a road game, but the Jaguars aren't very good, and the Colts are stout up front. I give the Colts a 63 percent chance to win this game.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are still hoping to get in with a win and a Titans loss, while the Ravens have packed it in after locking up the No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs. I give the Steelers a 60 percent chance to win this game, even with Devlin Hodges.
10. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are at home and have the better defense, while the Raiders are banged up and still have faint playoff hopes (they need to win, while the Steelers and Titans lose.) I give the Broncos a 58 percent chance to win this game.
11. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles would (in an earlier week) be a notable omission, as they barely beat the Eli Manning Giants at home three weeks ago, and now they're traveling to New York and facing the much more capable Daniel Jones. I give the Eagles a 56 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills
The Vikings have nothing for which to play, the Browns are on the road against a Bengals team that has locked up the No. 1 pick and can go all out to win, and the Bills are locked into the No. 5 seed no matter what.
