The NFL's 'legal tampering' window begins March 16, at which point the free agents will be available to the highest bidders. This article will look at the top 10 free agents and examine various landing spot scenarios, breaking down the fantasy implications for each case. The players are listed in descending order of projected fantasy value. The remaining 15 players will get written up Friday.
Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
The recent history of running back contract extensions is nothing less than mortifying, so it has to make Tennessee pause for a moment to imagine paying Henry $15 million or more per season. They might try to get around the problem by leaving Henry with the franchise tag, as Matthew Berry relayed a sourced report that the Titans would rather let Ryan Tannehill test the market than Henry. If Henry remains in Tennessee it makes his fantasy projection easy enough – just more of the same.
Projected 2020 team: Tennessee
Amari Cooper, WR, DAL
Whereas Dallas will likely use the franchise tag to prevent Dak Prescott from reaching the open market, there isn't as clear of a plan for how they'll retain Cooper, who is arguably the most valuable non-quarterback on the market. If so, then it might be quicker to list the teams that wouldn't be interested in Cooper than the ones who would. The general assumption at the moment is that Cooper will stay in Dallas, but that might only be true if Dallas can offer
The NFL's 'legal tampering' window begins March 16, at which point the free agents will be available to the highest bidders. This article will look at the top 10 free agents and examine various landing spot scenarios, breaking down the fantasy implications for each case. The players are listed in descending order of projected fantasy value. The remaining 15 players will get written up Friday.
Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
The recent history of running back contract extensions is nothing less than mortifying, so it has to make Tennessee pause for a moment to imagine paying Henry $15 million or more per season. They might try to get around the problem by leaving Henry with the franchise tag, as Matthew Berry relayed a sourced report that the Titans would rather let Ryan Tannehill test the market than Henry. If Henry remains in Tennessee it makes his fantasy projection easy enough – just more of the same.
Projected 2020 team: Tennessee
Amari Cooper, WR, DAL
Whereas Dallas will likely use the franchise tag to prevent Dak Prescott from reaching the open market, there isn't as clear of a plan for how they'll retain Cooper, who is arguably the most valuable non-quarterback on the market. If so, then it might be quicker to list the teams that wouldn't be interested in Cooper than the ones who would. The general assumption at the moment is that Cooper will stay in Dallas, but that might only be true if Dallas can offer him the most money. He'll likely cost at least $20 million per year, and it'll be interesting to see if someone can raise the bid to one Dallas can't match.
Projected 2020 team: Dallas, but keep an eye on Washington
Kenyan Drake, RB, ARI
The Cardinals presumably fell in love with Drake after he ran for 643 yards and eight touchdowns (5.2 YPC) in eight games, yet free agency appears a real threat to limit his Arizona career to eight games played. Particularly given the $14.16 million cap hit from David Johnson's contract – one that GM Steve Keim insists he will not terminate – the Cardinals are in a tough spot to justify another $10 million or so per year for Drake. The Denver Post's Mike Klis named Drake as a potential target of the Broncos, and ESPN's John Keim reported Drake as a target of Washington's, though John also reported that he doesn't expect Arizona to let Drake get that far. Between Arizona, Washington, and Denver, Arizona would clearly be the best for Drake's fantasy upside. I think the other two teams would be disastrous given the presence of Peterson/Guice in Washington and Lindsay/Freeman in Denver.
Projected 2020 team: Arizona, but keep an eye on Washington and Denver
Melvin Gordon, RB, LAC
Gordon was recently regarded as an almost elite running back, but his reputation has fallen since then. He was sluggish following his return from holdout in 2019, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per target, but there's no reason to think he's declined at age 27. Gordon averaged less than four yards per carry in four of his five NFL seasons, and less than 6.0 yards per target in three of the five, so the disappointing numbers are only an anomaly relative to his 2018 season, when he averaged 5.1 yards per carry and 7.4 yards per target. In other words, any team that liked Gordon two years ago should still like him now. The team that likes him the most might yet be the Chargers, as coach Anthony Lynn expressed the hope that they would re-sign the running back. It's not clear whether Gordon holds any ill will toward the team following his holdout, on the other hand, so it's hard to tell how mutual the feeling might be. If Gordon leaves the Chargers, there are a number of teams who could theoretically approach him for a starting role. Some of the teams with the worst running back personnel include Miami, Tampa Bay, and Houston.
Projected 2020 team: Chargers, Miami, Tampa Bay, or Houston
Hunter Henry, TE, LAC
If the Chargers decline to re-sign Gordon, then perhaps they were saving money to re-sign Henry, an arguable top-five tight end at just 25 years old. Durability has been an issue for Henry, who missed the 2018 season with an ACL tear and otherwise hasn't played 16 games in a year, but those injuries have been bad luck rather than recurring issues. Jason La Canfora reported that the Chargers will use the franchise tag on Henry, which is the right call if they can't reach a long-term deal with him.
Projected 2020 team: Chargers
A.J. Green, WR, CIN
Like Henry and the Chargers, the Bengals are expected to place the franchise tag on Green, dooming him to Cincinnati once again. Perhaps it won't be so bad with an improved offensive line and the addition of quarterback Joe Burrow.
Projected 2020 team: Cincinnati
Austin Hooper, TE, ATL
The Falcons won't place the franchise tag on Hooper, and with little cap space to spare it seems like there's at least a coin flip's chance that Hooper is on a new team for 2020. Perhaps the most obvious fit would be Green Bay or Washington, as both teams have been linked to Hooper going into free agency. Unless you have high expectations for Dwayne Haskins in 2020, Hooper's fantasy interests would probably be better served by the Green Bay option.
Projected 2020 team: Green Bay or Washington
Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
The long-term situation is perhaps more blurry, but for now at least Dallas will use the franchise tag to keep Prescott away from the open market. If he were available to the open market, Prescott would doubtlessly be its most coveted player.
Projected 2020 team: Dallas
Robby Anderson, WR, NYJ
The Jets appear to want to keep him around, so Anderson could re-sign with them. If he leaves then his next stop isn't so easy to anticipate. A productive player in college who mostly went undrafted for character (academic) reasons, Anderson has legitimate athleticism for a starting, 800-snap NFL receiver. His actual value is greater than his pedigree, in other words, so he could fetch a high dollar figure despite his relatively modest origins. Unfortunately, he hasn't been definitively linked to any teams, so we can only guess his potential landing spots by picking on the teams with the worst depth charts. Arizona, Baltimore, Denver, Green Bay, Las Vegas, New Orleans, and Philadelphia strike me as the neediest teams on that front. Many or all of these teams could address their wide receiver needs in the draft, but Anderson gives a more convincing Win Now option than most rookies, even the good ones. I'm going to go out on a bit more of a limb with this one.
Projected 2020 team: Denver or Philadelphia
Drew Brees, QB, NO
This one's easy: Brees will only play for the Saints, and they'll be glad to have him back in 2020.
Projected 2020 team: New Orleans
On Friday I'll post the next 15 players in this list of the top 25 free agents:
Breshad Perriman, WR, TB
Jameis Winston, QB, TB
Philip Rivers, QB, LAC
Tom Brady, QB, NE
Randall Cobb, WR, DAL
Devin Funchess, WR, IND
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, SF
Lamar Miller, RB, HOU
Jordan Howard, RB, PHI
Ryan Tannehill, QB, TEN
Carlos Hyde, RB, HOU
Eric Ebron, TE, IND
Nelson Agholor, WR, PHI
Demarcus Robinson, WR, KC
DeAndre Washington, RB, LV
