Hopefully, we are less than two months away from football returning. As we enter draft season, I thought it would be a good time to break down how I've approached the drafts I've done and how I'll approach my upcoming drafts. I'll break down each position, beginning this week with quarterbacks, and offer both some general and specific ideas about my strategy and targets. The ADPs referenced below are from NFFC (thanks in advance!) and can be found here.
It's not surprising that the first two quarterbacks going off the board are Lamar Jackson (14.56 ADP) and Patrick Mahomes (16.04 ADP). The gap isn't as big as one might think when looking at last year's numbers only because touchdown passes are counted as six points in the NFC format. I think grabbing either in the first round is reaching given the options at running back and wide receiver.
The hype over Kyler Murray (52.36 ADP) has landed him as the third quarterback coming off the board. That stat is a little misleading as there's a significant difference between Murray and Mahomes' ADP (about 38 spots). This isn't a bad spot to take Murray who should be more comfortable in his offense this season. The Cardinals also added arguably the best wide receiver in the league in DeAndre Hopkins, and stacking Hopkins with Murray might end up being a best-ball or big contest (like the NFC) overall winner. Coming in a couple of spots after Murray is Dak Prescott
Hopefully, we are less than two months away from football returning. As we enter draft season, I thought it would be a good time to break down how I've approached the drafts I've done and how I'll approach my upcoming drafts. I'll break down each position, beginning this week with quarterbacks, and offer both some general and specific ideas about my strategy and targets. The ADPs referenced below are from NFFC (thanks in advance!) and can be found here.
It's not surprising that the first two quarterbacks going off the board are Lamar Jackson (14.56 ADP) and Patrick Mahomes (16.04 ADP). The gap isn't as big as one might think when looking at last year's numbers only because touchdown passes are counted as six points in the NFC format. I think grabbing either in the first round is reaching given the options at running back and wide receiver.
The hype over Kyler Murray (52.36 ADP) has landed him as the third quarterback coming off the board. That stat is a little misleading as there's a significant difference between Murray and Mahomes' ADP (about 38 spots). This isn't a bad spot to take Murray who should be more comfortable in his offense this season. The Cardinals also added arguably the best wide receiver in the league in DeAndre Hopkins, and stacking Hopkins with Murray might end up being a best-ball or big contest (like the NFC) overall winner. Coming in a couple of spots after Murray is Dak Prescott (54.87 ADP). This is another completely justifiable ADP given that Dak finished as the No. 2 scoring fantasy quarterback last season. He also has another weapon in rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, and tight end Jason Witten leaving for Vegas and allowing Blake Jarwin to claim a bigger role is likely addition by subtraction.
The other two quarterbacks in the same price range as Prescott and Murray are Russell Wilson (60.77 ADP) and Deshaun Watson (66 ADP). Watson has finished fourth in scoring the last two seasons while Wilson has been ridiculously consistent finishing in the top 8 at the position each of the last eight years. However, the loss of Hopkins likely won't help Watson, and Seattle remains a very run-heavy team.
Despite finishing fifth among fantasy quarterbacks last season, Josh Allen (82.89 ADP) comes in as the eighth quarterback being drafted, just after Matt Ryan (81.95 ADP). After finishing second at the position two seasons ago, Ryan dropped to 10th last season. He'll likely finish somewhere in between those two spots this season, justifying his ADP. As for Allen, if you polled everyone here in Buffalo about his prospects for this season you'd likely get an almost even split of "he's the franchise quarterback" and "the Bills will move on from him next season." It's hard seeing him duplicate his nine rushing touchdowns from last season, but his passing should improve in his third season, especially with Stefon Diggs on the roster.
The next group of quarterbacks is where I think there's an advantage to be had. The order they've been going in is Carson Wentz (86.26 ADP), Tom Brady (87.98 ADP), Drew Brees (90.99 ADP) and Aaron Rodgers (93.25 ADP). If you're going to wait this long for quarterback, why not take two in this spot? This strategy means you can load up on the other positions and around picks 90-100 take two quarterbacks who should still have some upside. The strategy is to play the weekly matchups (i.e. Brees at home, anyone in a plus-matchup) unless one turns back the clock consistently and then becomes useful every week.
Best of the Rest
A few long shots I'm interested in, starting with the most attractive and then going down:
Baker Mayfield (108.34 ADP) – Remember last season when everyone was so high on the Browns? Granted, the two games against the Ravens might be tough (count on me betting the home, Browns money-line) but the other four division games are totally winnable. Mayfield is in a new offense, has a huge chip on his-more-talented-than-Johnny-shoulder and has weapons. Austin Hooper has to have better hands than the past tight ends, and there's a ton of upside with Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry.
Jared Goff (117.15 ADP) – How old do you think Goff is? If you answered 25, you'd be correct. He has 4,600 passing yards in each of the last two seasons, and if he plays another 16 games it's almost a given he'll have more than last season's 22 passing touchdowns. Todd Gurley is gone and the Rams might need to rely more on the passing game.
Drew Lock (137.11 ADP) – This isn't as much about the player as it is about the set-up. He has a great set of wide receivers in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and either KJ Hamler or DaeSean Hamilton. Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay should keep opposing defenses honest with the run game setting up Lock for success.
Overall analysis? The quarterback position seems to be priced right. If anything, there will be bargains to grab in most fantasy drafts with at least a couple of these guys falling further than their ADPs. That's not to say if any of these elite quarterbacks fall that there's not value to grab them in the early or mid-rounds. Overall, waiting and drafting two solid options late seems the way to go, even in standard leagues with only five bench spots.
