This article is part of our Injury Analysis series.
As the NFL opt-out list is finalized and training camps officially begin, we will finally get a chance to see players take the field. However, the start of camp brings with it a flurry of reports and quotes that can entice and sway fantasy investors opinions. To avoid these pitfalls, here's a few tips to consider in the days ahead.
No. 1. Every player feels great, at least according to that player. However, actions speak louder than words, and it's always wise to gauge a player on how he looks and moves. This will be particularly hard to do this season, as we won't have the benefit of preseason. Instead, fantasy players will have to be resourceful, keenly watching social media, local news footage and other resources (like the site you're currently reading) to get a more accurate read on a player's heath.
No. 2. Pay attention to the activity of a front office, not necessarily what they are publicly saying. A head coach might report that an injury is not considered significant and that their starting wide receiver isn't expected to miss any time. However, if the team then follows up these statements by signing a new wideout or hosting tryouts for the positions, it's safe to say they are at least a little worried about the injured player's status. Make sure you invest in an insurance policy of your own in these types of situations.
No. 3. Exhibit a little patience. Don't panic just because a player misses
As the NFL opt-out list is finalized and training camps officially begin, we will finally get a chance to see players take the field. However, the start of camp brings with it a flurry of reports and quotes that can entice and sway fantasy investors opinions. To avoid these pitfalls, here's a few tips to consider in the days ahead.
No. 1. Every player feels great, at least according to that player. However, actions speak louder than words, and it's always wise to gauge a player on how he looks and moves. This will be particularly hard to do this season, as we won't have the benefit of preseason. Instead, fantasy players will have to be resourceful, keenly watching social media, local news footage and other resources (like the site you're currently reading) to get a more accurate read on a player's heath.
No. 2. Pay attention to the activity of a front office, not necessarily what they are publicly saying. A head coach might report that an injury is not considered significant and that their starting wide receiver isn't expected to miss any time. However, if the team then follows up these statements by signing a new wideout or hosting tryouts for the positions, it's safe to say they are at least a little worried about the injured player's status. Make sure you invest in an insurance policy of your own in these types of situations.
No. 3. Exhibit a little patience. Don't panic just because a player misses a workout or practice or even ends up on a PUP list. Teams are more likely to handle minor injuries conservatively this season without the benefit of a normal training camp or preseason. Additionally, some recovering players were forced to rehab away from team facilities, and team medical staffs are just now getting a chance to work in-person with these individuals. As a result, I'm betting we see more frequent rest days provided for proven talent.
The Seahawks have placed Penny on the Active/PUP list as he continues his recovery from a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in his left knee. ACL tears have long been a fixture of professional and fantasy sports. Fortunately, advancements in surgical technique, post-op recovery and extended rehab have improved outcomes for an injury that was once considered career-altering. The timeline for recovery has also improved with most players returning in eight to 10 months. Outliers, like Adrian Peterson's impressive return, have occurred but are exceptions not the norm. As a result, timing of an ACL injury remains key. For Penny, who suffered his torn ACL in December, it seems unlikely he will be ready for Week 1. Penny's situation is one of the scenarios I was referring to in tips No. 2 and No. 3. Seattle knows Penny is likely to miss time and added depth to their backfield by drafting DeeJay Dallas in the fourth-round and signing free agent Carlos Hyde. Furthermore, I fully expect Seattle to exhibit caution with Penny's recovery, and it seems like he starts the year on the PUP list and misses the first six games of the season.
The Texans wideout is the perfect example for tip No. 1. Coach Bill O'Brien has raved about Fuller's recovery from offseason surgery to address a sports hernia, stating "[Fuller] looks as good as he's ever looked." However, Fuller remains a dangerous investment based on his lengthy medical history, including an ACL tear and recurring hamstring strains, which has forced him to miss 22 total games in his four-year career. Previous injury is a strong predicator for future injury, especially with lower extremity soft-tissue issues, and the chances of Fuller missing time this season are high. The talent and opportunity are clearly there following the DeAndre Hopkins trade, but relying on Fuller for a full slate of games remains a high-risk gamble.
Turf Burns
Will Dissly: Seattle coach Pete Carroll revealed Dissly will be managed carefully after he passed his recent physical. The 24-year-old tight end continues to work his way back from a torn Achilles suffered in Week 6 of the 2019 season. While the return to play rate following an Achilles tears has improved in recent seasons, the injury continues to be one that impacts performance. If that wasn't bad enough, Dissly is still not yet two years removed from a torn patellar tendon, another significant injury that often hinders performance. Dissly does have age on his side, but overcoming these two injuries is largely unprecedented. As a result, it appears as though 2020 may not be the year Dissly emerges as a constant and reliable fantasy weapon.
T.Y. Hilton: The Indianapolis receiver has been placed on the Active/NFI list after straining a hamstring during at-home workouts. Once a model of reliability, Hilton has missed eight games over the past two seasons with multiple lower extremity injuries. That list includes a nagging calf injury in 2019 and multiple hamstring strains in 2018. As mentioned with Fuller, previous injury is a major red flag for future occurrence. Couple this with Hilton's career workload and age and he suddenly becomes a precarious pick. The setback also limits his time to build a rapport with new quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts insist the strain is mild, but go ahead and move Hilton down your draft board a few spots for the immediate future.
Gardner Minshew: The Jacksonville quarterback has been moved off the Reserve/COVID-19 list after completing the league's mandated protocol. He remains the top option on the Jaguars depth chart and will look to build on an up-and-down rookie campaign.
Detroit Lions Passing Game: Two primary components of Detroit's aerial threat were cleared to return to the practice field after quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Kenny Golladay successfully passed the COVID-19 protocol earlier this week. However, tight end T.J. Hockenson remains on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Hopefully Hockenson can complete the necessary steps soon, as questions about his ankle linger after last year's injury.
