This article is part of our Survivor series.
While most of us have myriad different interests every NFL Sunday, for me Survivor is always Priority 1. While your fantasy team can lose and recover the following week, or you can come back from a tough day against the spread, when you lose in Survivor, it's over, and your entry fee is gone forever. So the first order of business is booking that winner before worrying about everything else that went right or wrong.
(For a full rundown of the underlying principles of Survivor play (and also the rules) you can click here and here.)
Before you go further, please click those links. I'll be drawing on concepts like "pot odds" and "pool equity" throughout the season, and they'll make more sense if you grasp the underlying framework.
Bottom line, the goal in Survivor is to pick one winner per week, but you can't use the same team twice. While the game is called "Survivor" it really should be called "Sole Survivor" because (and you'll understand better if you click the above links), surviving is only worthwhile when other people don't. Grasp that, and what you read in these pages will make a lot more sense.
Okay, without further ado, let's take a look at the Week 1 slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | JAGUARS | 18.00% | 350 | 77.78 | 4.00 |
| CHIEFS | Texans | 15.50% | 400 | 80.00 | 3.10 |
| BILLS | Jets | 15.30% | 247.5 | 71.22 | 4.40 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 15.30% | 330 | 76.74 | 3.56 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 10.20% | 300 | 75.00 | 2.55 |
While most of us have myriad different interests every NFL Sunday, for me Survivor is always Priority 1. While your fantasy team can lose and recover the following week, or you can come back from a tough day against the spread, when you lose in Survivor, it's over, and your entry fee is gone forever. So the first order of business is booking that winner before worrying about everything else that went right or wrong.
(For a full rundown of the underlying principles of Survivor play (and also the rules) you can click here and here.)
Before you go further, please click those links. I'll be drawing on concepts like "pot odds" and "pool equity" throughout the season, and they'll make more sense if you grasp the underlying framework.
Bottom line, the goal in Survivor is to pick one winner per week, but you can't use the same team twice. While the game is called "Survivor" it really should be called "Sole Survivor" because (and you'll understand better if you click the above links), surviving is only worthwhile when other people don't. Grasp that, and what you read in these pages will make a lot more sense.
Okay, without further ado, let's take a look at the Week 1 slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | JAGUARS | 18.00% | 350 | 77.78 | 4.00 |
| CHIEFS | Texans | 15.50% | 400 | 80.00 | 3.10 |
| BILLS | Jets | 15.30% | 247.5 | 71.22 | 4.40 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 15.30% | 330 | 76.74 | 3.56 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 10.20% | 300 | 75.00 | 2.55 |
| Eagles | FOOTBALL TEAM | 9.50% | 240 | 70.59 | 2.79 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 4.90% | 260 | 72.22 | 1.36 |
| Steelers | GIANTS | 3.90% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.18 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There's no "pot odds" play here with the five most-owned teams between 10 and 20 percent. Just go with who you think is most likely to win (unfortunately no one above 80 percent) and get to Week 2.
My Picks
1. Indianapolis Colts
Vegas likes the Chiefs, who are at home, but I'd rather face Gardner Minshew than Deshaun Watson. The Colts should grind this out behind a stout offensive line and a conservative game plan. The biggest concerns for me are the weather -- it's hot and humid in Florida, so conditioning could be an issue -- and DJ Chark, who is a dangerous downfield playmaker. But I give the Colts a 79 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
I love watching the Chiefs, and they should be unstoppable this year, but they're facing a playoff team with an upper-echelon QB who could shoot it out with them. I give the Chiefs a 77 percent chance to win this game.
3. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are an elite team, but I don't love the matchup against a game division rival that should be improved this year with a better coach, Odell Beckham healthy and Myles Garrett back. I give the Ravens a 76 percent chance to win this game.
4. New England Patriots
The Pats still have an elite secondary, and Cam Newton immediately makes their offense credible again. But the time to beat Bill Belichick's teams is early, before he makes adjustments, and it's Newton's first game in the system. I give the Patriots a 72 percent chance to win this game.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Giants offense should actually be good, but the Steelers are so stout defensively, and they get their quarterback back. It's a road game, but it's not a long trip, either, and the Giants defense projects to be terrible. I give the Steelers a 72 percent chance to win this game.
6. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners are one of the early Super Bowl favorites, but injuries at receiver and the loss of DeForest Buckner put them below where they were at the end of last year. The Cardinals are a live dog too with Kyler Murray entering Year 2. I give the 49ers a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Buffalo Bills: I don't trust Josh Allen, even at home, even against the Jets.
Philadelphia Eagles: Offensive line injuries are inopportune against an already solid Football Team front that just added mega-prospect Chase Young in the draft.
