Beating the Book: Handicapping Week 2

Week 1 went okay -- 10-6 ATS, 2-2-1 in the Supercontest (only got three with the Bengals instead of 3.5 there) and won my best bet (Bengals.) 

This week, it looks like I'm on a lot of ugly and underperforming teams from Week 1 like the Eagles, Giants, Cowboys and Colts. I'll post my Supercontest picks in the comments later in the week. 

For the podcast version of the article click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Bengals +6 at Browns

I wanted to buy low on the Browns, so I made this line four even though I thought it would be three, but the market wasn't having it. So give me the Bengals plus six. 

Browns 23 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Rams -1 at Eagles

The Rams looked good at home against the Cowboys, and the Eagles fell apart in the second half against the Football Team, but this line seems like an overreaction. Give me the home dog. 

Eagles 24 - 23

Panthers +9 at Buccaneers

I made this line 8.5, so I'm narrowly on the Panthers, but it's pretty much a coin flip. Tom Brady didn't look good, and his receivers are banged up too. Take the points. 

Buccaneers 28 - 20

Broncos +7.5 at Steelers

This line jumped after the Monday night games. I had it at seven, so while I was originally on the Steelers (when it was 6.5), I'm now on the Broncos, who play good defense and could get Courtland Sutton back. 

Steelers 24 - 17

Falcons +4.5 at Cowboys

I set this line at eight, so I'm firmly on Dallas. The Cowboys offensive line didn't look good against the Rams last week, but I expect Dak Prescott to have plenty of time against a soft Atlanta defense. Lay the wood. 

Cowboys 31 - 23

49ers -7 at Jets

I made this line 6.5, so sadly I'm on the Jets, a phrase no man wants to type. But the hangover for the Super Bowl loser is real, the 49ers defense isn't as good as last year's, and in addition to their receivers being hurt, the 49ers also have a gimpy George Kittle. Take the points. 

49ers 20 - 14

Bills -5.5 at Dolphins

I made this line four, so that puts me on the Dolphins who looked terrible against the Patriots last week. But they're at home and facing a familiar foe, so this is enough for me. Take the Dolphins. 

Bills 20 - 17

Vikings +3 at Colts

Philip Rivers looked terrible and has for some time now, so I don't think that'll change. But the Colts should be able to run the ball, and their defense is better than Minnesota's right now, last week's disaster notwithstanding. Take the Colts. 

Colts 27 - 23

Lions +6 at Packers 

I made this line 7.5, as the Packers are better defensively, and Aaron Rodgers looked like his old self last week, taking shots down the field and getting receivers other than Davante Adams involved. Lay the wood. 

Packers 31 - 24

Giants +5 at Bears

The Giants had a typical Giants game last week -- show up early, find it impossible to open running lanes, play decent defense for a while, then collapse late. But Daniel Jones looked good, and the Bears are still cobbling it together behind Mitchell Trubisky. Take the points. 

Giants 24 - 23

Jaguars +9 at Titans

This line opened at 11, and after I made it 10, I thought I'd be on the Jaguars. But now it's dropped all the way to nine, so I'm on the Titans. Don't bet the team, bet the number. 

Titans 27 - 17

LATE GAMES

Football Team +6.5 at Cardinals

The Football Team might actually have a solid defense, and while I don't think much of Dwayne Haskins, I think they should keep it close enough. Take the points. 

Cardinals 23 - 17

Ravens -7 at Texans

I made this line six, and it disgusts me to be on the Bill "punt to lose" O'Brien team again, but it is what it is. Hold your nose and take the points. 

Ravens 27 - 23

Chiefs -8.5 at Chargers

Unfortunately, I made this line only eight, so I'm on the Chargers. The Chiefs can beat anyone by 30, but the Chargers have a good defense, excellent corners and will probably slow things down and ugly it up. 

Chiefs 28 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Patriots +4 at Seahawks

If the Seahawks are really committed to letting Russell Wilson work, they'll be one of the league's top teams. But I'm a believer in Cam Newton, and the Patriots defense is still likely to be among the league's best. Take the points. 

Seahawks 23 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Saints -5.5 at Raiders

I made this line 4.5, so I'm on the Raiders. The Saints and Drew Brees are typically tougher at home, and the Raiders offense might be decent this year. Take the points. 

Saints 27 - 24

For the podcast version of the article click here.

I went 10-6 last week, won my best bet (Bengals) and went 2-2-1 in the Supercontest. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.