This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was mediocre. I went 8-8, won my best bet (Colts), but only went 2-3 in the Supercontest. I got unlucky on a couple games -- Leonard Fournette breaking the long TD to cover against the Panthers and Cam Newton getting stopped short of the goal (after a missed two-point conversion and missed FG earlier) -- but I'm sure I got lucky on some I'm not remembering, and usually that kind of thing evens out over time.
This week, I especially like the Saints, Patriots, and the Seahawks and Broncos were easy calls for me too. I'll post my Supercontest picks in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Dolphins +3 at Jaguars
This line opened as a pick 'em, and when I first looked it was Dolphins +2.5, so I loved the Jaguars. Now it's up to three, and my lean is more lukewarm. Still back Jacksonville.
Jaguars 24 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Raiders +6 at Patriots
I'm a Cam Newton believer, especially after watching the Seattle game. The Raiders are traveling east on a short week off a huge win. Lay the wood.
Patriots 31 - 20
Rams +2.5 at Bills
The Rams have surprised me early on, but I don't see why they're not getting the full three on the road against a stout Bills squad. Take the home favorite.
Bills 23 - 20
Texans +4 at Steelers
The Texans are a desperate animal, but I'd still need more than four on the road against one of
Last week was mediocre. I went 8-8, won my best bet (Colts), but only went 2-3 in the Supercontest. I got unlucky on a couple games -- Leonard Fournette breaking the long TD to cover against the Panthers and Cam Newton getting stopped short of the goal (after a missed two-point conversion and missed FG earlier) -- but I'm sure I got lucky on some I'm not remembering, and usually that kind of thing evens out over time.
This week, I especially like the Saints, Patriots, and the Seahawks and Broncos were easy calls for me too. I'll post my Supercontest picks in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Dolphins +3 at Jaguars
This line opened as a pick 'em, and when I first looked it was Dolphins +2.5, so I loved the Jaguars. Now it's up to three, and my lean is more lukewarm. Still back Jacksonville.
Jaguars 24 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Raiders +6 at Patriots
I'm a Cam Newton believer, especially after watching the Seattle game. The Raiders are traveling east on a short week off a huge win. Lay the wood.
Patriots 31 - 20
Rams +2.5 at Bills
The Rams have surprised me early on, but I don't see why they're not getting the full three on the road against a stout Bills squad. Take the home favorite.
Bills 23 - 20
Texans +4 at Steelers
The Texans are a desperate animal, but I'd still need more than four on the road against one of the league's top defenses. Lay the wood.
Steelers 24 - 17
49ers -4 at Giants
I made this line 2.5, as the Niners are the most injured team in the league, missing Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Deebo Samuel and possibly even Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle. The Giants are bad, but they're at home and getting more than a FG. Take the points.
49ers 20 - 17
Titans -2.5 at Vikings
This is exactly where I set the line, so it's a coin flip for me. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the home dog.
Titans 23 - 21
Football Team +7 at Browns
Dwayne Haskins looks like a bust to me, but seven is too much for the Browns until they show they're at least a league average team. Take the points.
Browns 26 - 20
Bengals +6 at Eagles
The Eagles would be the contrarian, buy-low play, but I made this line only 5.5, so I'm on the Bengals. Too many no-shows from Philly the last two years to trust automatically in a bounce-back.
Eagles 27 - 23
Bears +3.5 at Falcons
The Falcons can score points, especially at home, and I'll lay the hook given the disparity in quarterback play. Take the Falcons.
Falcons 27 - 20
LATE GAMES
Jets +10.5 at Colts
I hate taking the Jets, but I made this line only nine, so that's what I'm doing. Philip Rivers' dink-dunk-and-senseless-interception style doesn't lend well to double-digit-favorite status.
Colts 24 - 16
Panthers +6.5 at Chargers
I made this line seven, so I'm on the Chargers, and it feels a bit wrong. But I think Christian McCaffrey will be missed, and Rivers isn't around to throw the backbreaking pick. Lay the wood.
Chargers 24 - 17
Lions +6 at Cardinals
I made this line 6.5, so I'm narrowly on the Cardinals. Kenny Golladay's return could give Detroit a lift, but I like Kyler Murray against the Lions defense too.
Cardinals 30 - 23
Buccaneers -6 at Broncos
The Broncos have a backup QB and lost their best offensive player, but this line still seems excessive to me on the road in altitude with a Bucs team that hasn't established itself yet. Take the home dog.
Buccaneers 23 - 20
Cowboys +4.5 at Seahawks
The Cowboys were even luckier than the Seahawks to win last week, and I trust Russell Wilson at home more than Dak Prescott on the road. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 34 - 27
SUNDAY NIGHT
Packers +3 at Saints
The Saints have looked shaky, but their defense is still better than Green Bay's, they're at home and only laying the standard three. This is one of my best bets. Take New Orleans.
Saints 27 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Chiefs +3.5 at Ravens
The game of the year. While some of you might see this as the battle between MVP QBs, I see it as the duel between the two greatest placekickers of all time. I love the Ravens, but I can't lay the hook against Patrick Mahomes and the Super Bowl champs. Take the Chiefs.
Ravens 34 - 33
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I went 8-8 last week to bring my season-long record to 18-14, won my best bet (Colts, 2-0) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest to be 4-5-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.
