This article is part of our Survivor series.
No one of note lost last week, though I did have to sweat it out a bit with the Titans. Fortunately, you don't get docked for near misses, and rarely do you get deep into your pool without a couple.
Let's take a look at this week's slate.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLTS | Jets | 46.10% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 7.85 |
| CHARGERS | Panthers | 11.20% | 275 | 73.33 | 2.99 |
| CARDINALS | Lions | 8.80% | 240 | 70.59 | 2.59 |
| Buccaneers | BRONCOS | 7.90% | 245 | 71.01 | 2.29 |
| BROWNS | Football Team | 5.80% | 300 | 75.00 | 1.45 |
| EAGLES | Bengals | 5.70% | 220 | 68.75 | 1.78 |
| PATRIOTS | Raiders | 3.90% | 260 | 72.22 | 1.08 |
| 49ers | GIANTS | 2.20% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.77 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
For the first time, we have something interesting: A whopping 46 percent of pools are on the Colts, while they're only 83 percent to win, a low number for such a heavily-used team. As such, you might want to fade the Colts, as I'll demonstrate with some simple math below:
Once the Colts are off your board, the rest are close enough that you should just take your pick. But for the sake of this exercise, let's use the Browns (who I probably wouldn't take, but is Vegas' No. 2 choice.)
If you compare the Browns to the Colts, there are only two scenarios that matter: Colts win, Browns lose, and Browns win, Colts lose. In the scenarios where both win or both lose, it doesn't
No one of note lost last week, though I did have to sweat it out a bit with the Titans. Fortunately, you don't get docked for near misses, and rarely do you get deep into your pool without a couple.
Let's take a look at this week's slate.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLTS | Jets | 46.10% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 7.85 |
| CHARGERS | Panthers | 11.20% | 275 | 73.33 | 2.99 |
| CARDINALS | Lions | 8.80% | 240 | 70.59 | 2.59 |
| Buccaneers | BRONCOS | 7.90% | 245 | 71.01 | 2.29 |
| BROWNS | Football Team | 5.80% | 300 | 75.00 | 1.45 |
| EAGLES | Bengals | 5.70% | 220 | 68.75 | 1.78 |
| PATRIOTS | Raiders | 3.90% | 260 | 72.22 | 1.08 |
| 49ers | GIANTS | 2.20% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.77 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
For the first time, we have something interesting: A whopping 46 percent of pools are on the Colts, while they're only 83 percent to win, a low number for such a heavily-used team. As such, you might want to fade the Colts, as I'll demonstrate with some simple math below:
Once the Colts are off your board, the rest are close enough that you should just take your pick. But for the sake of this exercise, let's use the Browns (who I probably wouldn't take, but is Vegas' No. 2 choice.)
If you compare the Browns to the Colts, there are only two scenarios that matter: Colts win, Browns lose, and Browns win, Colts lose. In the scenarios where both win or both lose, it doesn't matter which team you took.
The odds (per Vegas) of a Colts win/Browns loss are 83 percent times 25 percent. That equals 20.75 percent. The odds of a Browns win/Colts loss are 75 percent times 17 percent or 12.75 percent. The ratio of 20.75 to 12.75 is 1.63. That's your risk ratio.
If we assume a 100-person pool with a $10 buy-in, and the Colts win and Browns lose, six people would be out with the Browns and another 14 or so on other teams, for a total of 20. That means 80 people would remain, and your pool equity would go from $10 (your buy-in) to $12.50 ($1000/80).
On the other hand, if the Browns win/Colts lose, then 46 people would be out, plus the other 14 or so for a total of 60. That would leave 40 people remaining, bringing your pool equity ($1000/40) to $25. That's double your pool equity had you won with the Colts. So your reward ratio is 2:1.
In this case, the reward for taking the Browns significantly (but not overwhelmingly) outweighs the added risk. In fact, it's close enough that Chargers (weaker Vegas odds, more usage) are probably about equal with the Colts.
So this isn't a no-brainer, but you have a slight edge gambling on a lesser team of your choice and fading the Colts, especially if you're less bullish on Indy than the market.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
I liked what I saw in Seattle, and while the Raiders are solid, I'm willing to roll the dice on the Pats in their home stadium. I give the Patriots a 75 percent chance to win this game.
2. Indianapolis Colts
I'm not willing to take trust the Browns as I have them lower than the Vegas number. The Colts are saddled with gift-giving Philip Rivers, but they're at home, and their opponent is the hapless Jets. I give them an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
I like the Chargers, but trusting a rookie quarterback, who looked credible, to be fair, in his second start is dicey. I'm not a Teddy Bridgewater fan, but he's less likely to make the huge mistake. I give the Chargers a 74 percent chance to win this game.
4. Cleveland Browns
I don't trust Baker Mayfield against that Washington front, but Dwayne Haskins is even worse, and the Browns have better skill players and are playing at home. I give the Browns a 71 percent chance to win this game.
5. Arizona Cardinals
I like Kyler Murray facing the Lions defense, but if Kenny Golladay is back Matthew Stafford could keep Detroit within range. I give the Cardinals a 70 percent chance to win this game.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I don't like a road team in altitude against a solid defense. The Broncos have a backup QB, though, and Tom Brady looked sharper last week. I give the Buccaneers a 69 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
San Francisco 49ers: It's their second straight game on the east coast, and the team is decimated with injuries.
Philadelphia Eagles: I don't trust them at all right now, and Joe Burrow looks like a player.
Seattle Seahawks: I love Russell Wilson at home, but the Cowboys offense gives them a puncher's chance.
