Tuesday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bills vs. Titans

NFL on Tuesday? NFL on Tuesday!

After numerous postponements, the Titans are finally back as 3.5-point home underdogs against the Bills in a game with a 52.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. It's been 16 days since the Titans last played, a 31-30 victory over the Vikings to move to 3-0, while the Bills are 4-0 after beating the Raiders on Oct. 4. Buffalo's offense has been clicking, with at least 27 points in every game, while the Titans dropped more than 30 in each of their past two (though they also allowed 30 in each). We've seen plenty of high scores this season, and Tuesday's game is expected to keep that going.

QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen ($13,000 DK, $16,000 FD) is quite expensive on both sites, as he is the same DraftKings price as Russell Wilson was against the Vikings on Sunday Night Football and $1,000 more than Alvin Kamara on Monday Night Football against the Chargers (he's equal to Kamara on FanDuel). They're completely justified prices, however, as Allen was second in the NFL in passing yards (1,326), third in passing touchdowns (12), third in YPA (8.0) and second in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks (three) through the first four weeks of the season. He's thrown for at least 288 yards in every game, thrice going above 310, and he's scored at least three touchdowns in each start, capped off by his monster game against the Rams in Week 4 when he threw for 311 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing four times for eight yards and another score. If there's a nit to pick it's that he's already lost three fumbles, but we may as well let that slide given only Dak Prescott scored more quarterback fantasy points through the first four games.

Buffalo hasn't exactly faced the toughest defenses in the league, playing the Jets, Dolphins, Rams and Raiders, respectively, but the Titans haven't really been that great anyway, allowing three passing touchdowns each to Gardner Minshew and Kirk Cousins. There's really not much to argue about whether Allen is a good play or not (he is), it's just a matter of finding enough value plays to afford him, particularly as a captain on DraftKings, where he'll eat up $19,500 of the $50,000 salary cap.

Am I allowed to call Ryan Tannehill ($9,800 DK, $15,000 FD) a "poor man's Josh Allen?" Is that okay given Allen is just a third-year pro and Tannehill is a 32-year-old vet who led his team to the AFC Championship game last season? It feels like a stretch but I'm going with it, as Tannehill comes in with at least 300 passing yards or multiple passing touchdowns in his three games this season. I suppose the biggest difference between the two is that the Bills' offense basically revolves around Allen while the Titans' certainly doesn't around Tannehill, which helps justify their salary differences and likely popularity. Given that Tannehill isn't the first player you consider when you want a piece of the Titans, he's unlikely to be overly popular, but he makes for a great anchor differential away from their best offensive weapon.

RUNNING BACKS

Derrick Henry ($11,000 DK, $14,500 FD) is that offensive weapon for the Titans, and he's surely to be very popular, even against a defense that's allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs on DraftKings and ninth-fewest on FanDuel. We should be weary that they've played the Jets, Dolphins, Rams and Raiders, three of whom aren't big running teams, but they've still did well against them, so there's that. Henry is likely to get plenty of opportunities after rushing 31, 25 and 26 times in the Titans' three games, respectively, racking up 116, 84 and 119 rushing yards, and while player props really shouldn't be used as projections, Henry's rushing yards prop is 97.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, and his -210 odds to score a touchdown anytime is by far the best in the game. 

To truly accentuate how much Henry dominates the backfield touches for the Titans, no other running back on the team has gotten more than three carries this season, with Darrynton Evans ($1,000, $6,000 FD) the lucky recipient of those three carries, which he turned into nine rushing yards, while Jeremy McNichols ($200 DK, not on FanDuel) played 33 offensive snaps through the first three games, rushing twice for seven yards and catching his only target for five receiving yards. Needless to say, these guys are highly unlikely to get meaningful action if Henry avoids injury.

Buffalo's backfield situation isn't as reliable, with Zack Moss ($2,600 DK, $7,500 FD), potentially returning from his toe injury to compete with with Devin Singletary ($8,000 DK, $12,000 FD) for touches. Singletary got a huge boost in playing time with Moss sidelined, playing 89 percent of snaps while getting 100 percent of the running back carries and six of seven targets last week against the Raiders. As noted by Jerry Donabedian in the Week 4 Backfield Hidden Stat Line: 

• In two games with Moss out, Singletary has averaged 15.5 carries, 5.5 targets and 98.5 yards, compared to 9.5 carries, 5.0 targets and 64.5 yards over the first two weeks.

Moss is questionable to play, so it's possible he doesn't or is limited, which would obviously benefit Singletary against a Titans defense that allowed at least one running back touchdown in all three games, putting only six teams behind them in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position per game. Unfortunately, Singletary really hasn't done a ton with the increase in touches, as he's still looking for his first game with 75 rushing yards, and he's had more than 25 receiving yards just once despite seven, three, five and six targets in four games, respectively. On the plus side, his 10 red-zone carries lead the team, but Moss has just as many carries inside the 10 and five-yard lines despite playing half the number of games, and both players trail Allen in those categories anyway, which is why the quarterback has three red-zone rushing touchdowns versus one for Singletary and none for Moss.

Singletary makes sense as a captain/MVP for those who think he finally gets his breakout, and especially as a differential from Allen and the passing game, but you just have to hope Moss doesn't poach too many touches and Allen doesn't get them near the goal line.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

In addition to having the offense basically revolve around Henry, the Titans could be without wide receivers Corey Davis ($6,200 DK, $8,500 FD) and Adam Humphries ($5,600, $7,000 FD), who are still on the COVID-19 list and unlikely to be activated before the game. And even if they are activated, they haven't been able to practice with the team, so you have to wonder how much they'll be able to contribute anyway. On the plus side, top wideout A.J. Brown ($8,800 DK, $11,500 FD) is expected to play despite being officially questionable because of a knee injury that has held him out since Week 1. Brown had a few monster games last season, but he also had only six games with at least four catches, including just a single catch in each of the the wild card game against New England and the divisional game against Baltimore. He makes for a tough cash-game option given the injury and general inconsistency, and that only helps to make Tannehill more popular.

But it's not like there are a lot of other solid options for Tannehill to turn to. Tight end Jonnu Smith ($7,200 DK, $10,500 FD) is tied for the team lead in targets (20), and he's first in touchdowns (three), red-zone targets (four) and targets inside the 10 and five-yard lines (two). His 13 receptions and 181 yards are also the most among likely active Titans, which really isn't that much! The difficulty with Smith is that he's not a down-field threat, as his 119 yards and 6.0 aDOT attest, but luckily the Titans have Kalif Raymond ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD), who has a very solid 23.6 aDOT, the second-highest in the league among players with as many targets as Raymond. That sounds really great until you consider he's only been targeted five times, but he did catch three of them for 118 yards, all of which came in Week 3 at Minnesota. Raymond could be popular because he's cheaper than Brown and has shown plenty of upside, though there are still plenty of question marks.

Adding to the question marks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) could be the No. 3 wide receiver for Tennessee, and maybe the No. 2 if Brown can't play. He comes in with 18 offensive snaps and zero receptions on two targets, but a minimum-priced starter is going to be considered, especially by those who make a lot of lineups, even if we have to ignore that he hasn't had a single air yard. If you're looking for a little more reliability (and it's really not much more), backup tight end Anthony Firkser ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) may at least be targeted, as he comes in with six catches on six targets for 50 yards, though he put up a donut in their last game.

Given the lack of a dominant receiver, at least in terms of target share, there's every reason to believe those who think the Titans can do well through the air will just rely on Tannehill instead of one of the receivers. Sure, they can be used as flex plays for those who multi-enter, but it would be surprising to see any of them that popular other than Brown or Smith.

The Buffalo pass-catching group is much more reliable, headlined by Stefon Diggs ($10,600, $13,500 FD), the third-most expensive player on DraftKings and fourth-most on FanDuel, who leads the Bills in targets (35), receptions (26), receiving yards (403), air yards (388) and touchdowns (two, tied with three others). The 403 receiving yards co-led the NFL through four weeks, and Diggs was also 16th in target share (24.3), tied for eighth in targets and 11th in air yards (thanks again, Jerry). Given the usage, Diggs will be a decently popular captain/MVP option for those who don't want to spend up on Allen in that spot.

No. 2 wide receiver John Brown ($5,800 DK, $10,000 FD) is questionable because of a knee injury, but he could get some looks after scoring in each of the first two games before getting hurt in Week 3. Brown actually leads the team with a 13.7 aDOT and is second with 315 air yards, and given Allen's strong arm, Brown is a big play waiting to happen. There will also be those who think they can get enough out of Cole Beasley ($6,800 DK, $9,500 FD), who surely makes more sense on DraftKings than FanDuel because of the full point per reception, as his 8.5 aDOT feels like a tight end versus Diggs, Brown and Gabriel Davis ($4,600, $7,000 FD), the latter of whom played 59 percent of snaps last week, which pushed Beasley down to 30 percent after being above 60 in the first three games. Beasley still managed to catch three of four passes for 32 yards and a touchdown, but Davis could be an interesting overlooked play.

Another guy who is likely to go overlooked (and understandably) is Isaiah McKenzie ($800 DK, $6,500 FD), who has at least one catch in each game and three carries for 15 yards in the past two. It's not huge production, and his minus-one air yard on 88 receiving yards doesn't spark confidence in a huge play, but stranger things have happened for guys like this who are likely only considerations for those making lots of lineups.

Tight ends Dawson Knox ($3,400 DK, $6,500 FD) and Tyler Kroft ($2,000 DK, $6,000 FD) are presumably options too, especially since Kroft is one of four Bills with two receiving touchdowns this season, but you need them to get into the end zone to have any sort of value. They also likely have to already be in the end zone when they catch the passes, as Knox's 5.0 aDOT shows he's not much of a big play threat, though it looks big versus Kroft's 1.9.

KICKERS

The Titans' Stephen Gostkowski ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) comes in after shattering the thought that kickers have no upside, as he connected on six field-goal attempts, including three from 50+, and a PAT in Week 3 against Minnesota, helping him to 25.0 fantasy points. It was obviously a tremendous outlier, but it also marked his second game with at least a dozen fantasy points. He is definitely the floor play for cash games in the price range on DraftKings, as he's similarly priced to Raymond, Knox and the defenses, though he's only $500 less than Beasley on FanDuel.

Buffalo's Tyler Bass ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD) is in a similar boat except he hasn't had the high volume. On the plus side, he's a favorite in the game, which is probably why he's more expensive on DraftKings, but as always, you're playing these guys for floors rather than ceilings, which means they should be more popular in cash games than GPPs.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Bills defense ($5,000 DK) was supposed to be strong this season, but they've allowed 100 points in four games, joining the Jets (131), Browns (126), Texans (126), Raiders (120), and Jaguars (117) as the only teams in the AFC to allow at least that many. Then again, few points allowed doesn't pay the fantasy bills; turnovers, sacks and touchdowns do, which is why the Bills haven't been that great to start, with only six turnovers and 10 sacks in four games. They're also facing a quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over much (Tannehill has one turnover) nor get sacked at a high rate, so it's tough to get overly excited about them other than the variance of defenses can make them pop off at any time. 

From a salary perspective, the Titans defense ($3,000 DK) is much more reasonable for a team with six turnovers and four sacks in three games and facing a quarterback who took the fifth-most sacks and threw the fourth-most interceptions last season despite playing only 13 games. Allen has been on another level this year, but if you believe a lot of that has to do with the opponents he's faced then taking a flier on the Titans defense isn't a bad idea.