Some food for thought after another week of fantasy hockey ...
0.956
That's the Kings' PDO entering Sunday, the lowest mark in the league. It's essentially a measure of luck, and over time teams should gravitate toward a mean PDO of 1.000. But the eye test and the analytics are completely at odds. According to Natural Stat Trick they're kings of the hill in just about every important possession and shot metric entering this week: 549 CF (6th), 53.3 CF% (2nd), 54.92 FF% (3rd), 22.42 xGF (2nd), 54.98 xGF% (3rd). HockeyViz has them generating 11 percent more unblocked shots at evens than the average team. Yet they're 4-8-0 and for long stretches look like they're a lottery team. We shall wait and see which side is right, but Sean Walker scored his third goal of the season Sunday and is plus-5 through 12 games on a team with a minus-18 goal differential. When he is going to get actual time on the power play, by the way? The analytics and the eye test are a happy marriage and he is their orphaned lovechild; Walker is owned in just 9 percent on Yahoo and 6 percent on ESPN.
16
That's how many faceoffs Jonathan Huberdeau has won in the last three games after winning just 12 total last season and 21 in the season before that. There's no official word, but it seems like Aleksander Barkov's injury is still bothering him, forcing Huberdeau — and his 40 percent win rate
Some food for thought after another week of fantasy hockey ...
0.956
That's the Kings' PDO entering Sunday, the lowest mark in the league. It's essentially a measure of luck, and over time teams should gravitate toward a mean PDO of 1.000. But the eye test and the analytics are completely at odds. According to Natural Stat Trick they're kings of the hill in just about every important possession and shot metric entering this week: 549 CF (6th), 53.3 CF% (2nd), 54.92 FF% (3rd), 22.42 xGF (2nd), 54.98 xGF% (3rd). HockeyViz has them generating 11 percent more unblocked shots at evens than the average team. Yet they're 4-8-0 and for long stretches look like they're a lottery team. We shall wait and see which side is right, but Sean Walker scored his third goal of the season Sunday and is plus-5 through 12 games on a team with a minus-18 goal differential. When he is going to get actual time on the power play, by the way? The analytics and the eye test are a happy marriage and he is their orphaned lovechild; Walker is owned in just 9 percent on Yahoo and 6 percent on ESPN.
16
That's how many faceoffs Jonathan Huberdeau has won in the last three games after winning just 12 total last season and 21 in the season before that. There's no official word, but it seems like Aleksander Barkov's injury is still bothering him, forcing Huberdeau — and his 40 percent win rate — into the dot. In the Sunday matinee against the Oilers, Barkov took just one draw (a loss) against Connor McDavid, and ended up with just five faceoffs taken. Huberdeau finished with 15, four against McDavid and just one in the defensive zone. Barkov's fantasy value takes a hit with Huberdeau's taking the draws and his injury may limit him on offense.
10
That's the number of times the Leafs have allowed the opposition to score the first goal in 13 games this season. They've allowed 16 goals in the first period this season, most in the league, and 18 goals in the third period, second most in the league. They've been atrocious defensively, allowing eight percent more shots than the league average at even strength, according to HockeyViz, and the eighth-most shots allowed per game (32.8). That's put a damper on Frederik Andersen's fantasy value, who has been fantastic for stretches but mediocre overall with a .904 Sv% and 2.94 GAA this season. He will get his wins and there's no reason to panic, but know the Leafs, who finished eighth-worst last season with 33.1 SA/GP, are a team that's willing to trade scoring chances with their opposition all night. Michael Hutchinson is generally not a smart play for owners looking for spot starts.
7
That's the number of games of the winning streak for the Islanders, who get a four-day (!) break before facing the Lightning and Sabres back-to-back. They're doing this despite having some of the worst possession and shot metrics in the league, kind of the like the anti-Kings. The usual suspects have been good, but Derick Brassard has been a nice surprise with a goal in three consecutive games. He's barely owned in fantasy and with C and LW eligibility and perhaps a bigger role with Matt Martin and Tom Kuhnhackl injured. He's worth keeping an eye on after he signed one-year show-me contract late this summer.
6
That's James van Riemsdyk's point total this season, which has come in the last three games. Since Alain Vigneault put together a veteran first line with van Riemsdyk and Jakub Voracek on the wings and Claude Giroux back at center, the Flyers are 3-1-0 with 20 goals scored, the most by any team last week. Entering Sunday's game against the Isles the trio have controlled 63.77 percent of their shots, an elite number albeit a small sample size. JVR is 41 percent owned on Yahoo and 61 percent on ESPN, and if he stays on that line, those ownership numbers will fly. He was on a 30-goal pace last season and he's a good bet to do it this season. He's never accomplished the feat with the Flyers but did it twice with the Leafs.
4-0-0
That's Carey Price's record on Saturdays this season after another stellar performance in defeating the Leafs. We won't delve deep, but mathematically there's ample proof that Price is truly "Mr. Saturday Night" during the regular season: he has a 61.2 winning percentage with a .926 Sv% and 21 shutouts on Saturdays, by far his most successful day in the week. Price is an elite fantasy goalie who deserves to start every game, but it'll be interesting to see how far he can extend his Saturday streak. The Habs have a game every Saturday night until Dec. 7, and the matchups are juicy: at Stars, vs. Kings, vs. Devils, vs. Rangers, vs. Flyers. Price likely will play just twice this week and the week of Nov. 12, but both will include Saturday games.
3
That's how many goals Joel Armia has scored in three games after being moved into a top-six role with Max Domi and Jonathan Drouin. The 26-year-old winger is already halfway to last year's 13 goals and with eight points in nine games this season he seems poised for a breakout year. The former first-round draft pick was a top goal scorer in Finland's top league, and he's just taken some time to settle in. Drouin, who is having a resurgent season, and Domi's speed and playmaking has opened up opportunities for Armia to shoot. The 6-foot-4 power forward has played at least 18 minutes in three of his past four games and remains unowned in the vast majority of leagues.
1
That's the number of defensemen who have won the Calder Trophy in the last decade, an award that skews heavily toward forwards. That may change this year with Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. Ilya Mikheyev and Victor Olofsson are tied with 10 points for the scoring lead, but their production seems unsustainable given their lack of big minutes, unexpectedly efficient production and difference in talent level. Makar has been good, but he's also a threat from Samuel Girard, who has been coach Jared Bednar's preferred QB on the top unit at times. Hughes, however, is making a very strong case, averaging more than 20 minutes per game and recently supplanted Alexander Edler as the Canucks' top PP QB. He's generating more shots than any other defenseman in the league on the power play with an astonishing 144.44 CF/60, yet he's just owned in 48 percent of ESPN leagues. Jack Hughes, with five points and a minus-4 rating on a bad team, is at 74 percent … guys, what are you doing?
