This article is part of our DraftKings NHL series.
SLATE PREVIEW
There are five games on the NHL schedule for Monday, and is often the case there are zero teams on the second leg of a back-to-back. No need to worry about terribly tired legs in any of these matchups. The game that I'm most excited for is the Avalanche and the Blues fighting for the top spot in the Central. Colorado brings with it not just the best offense in the NHL by goals per game (3.66) but an 8-1-1 record in its last 10 games. Good luck, Jordan Binnington! There's a big-time lopsided matchup taking place in Columbus, as the Capitals are in town. Don't worry about Washington being on the road. The Caps are 15-2-1 in away games.
The Oilers draw the proverbial short straw, as they face the Stars on the road. Dallas has a 1.89 GAA at home, lowest in the NHL. You may want to steer clear of Oilers. Yes, dare I say it, even Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. If you want a game with potential offensive firework, look at the Predators and the Rangers. Nashville has a 3.19 GAA, while New York's GAA is 3.09.
GOALIES
The one goalie I'm really in on Monday is Braden Holtby ($8,400). It's more than Washington's 15-2-1 road record. In his last 12 starts, Holtby has a 2.29 GAA and .926 save percentage. The Jackets, on the other hand, have only managed 2.47 goals per game, which is 29th in the NHL.
If I'm being totally honest, and not just throwing names out there to pad out this article, Holtby is the only goalie I want to plant my flag on. However, I could be talked into Sergei Bobrovsky ($8,200). Yes, he has a 3.14 GAA and .900 save percentage. On the other hand, he has a 1.83 GAA and .951 save percentage over his last five starts. The Senators have only scored 2.42 goals per game away from home. Seems like a recipe for Bob to stay hot.
Are these the two most-expensive goalies Monday? Sure, but there aren't always values out there. Just make the smart decision.
VALUE PLAYS/ONE OFFS
Let me start off with a couple of bigger names that I think have particularly strong cases for success Monday. Since returning from injury, Mika Zibanejad ($6,200) has been red hot. He has 10 points in 10 games, and seven of those points have been goals. The Predators have a puzzling .889 save percentage as a team, which is a big reason for their 3.19 GAA. Plus, as the old saying goes, when veteran goalies lose a step, they tend to lose several steps at one, and Pekka Rinne ($7,500) is 37 now. There may be no turnaround coming.
Playing in Florida is bound to leave you underrated, and I feel that is the case for Jonathan Huberdeau ($6,200). This is a guy who had 92 points last year, and he has 37 points in 32 games this season. The Senators have a 3.09 GAA which, by their standards, is quite good. However, that number is buoyed by a weird hot streak for Anders Nilsson ($7,400) that proved unsustainable to the surprise of nobody. Over his last seven games Nilsson has a 3.72 GAA and .883 save percentage.
If you are willing to gamble on regression to the mean, consider Craig Smith ($3,200). Yes, he only has two goals in 31 games, but he has a 2.8 shooting percentage that is truly staggering. That's the kind of number you expect from a defenseman who isn't a particularly strong scorer. Smith has put 72 shots on net in 31 games, and the Rangers have given up 35.3 shots on goal per contest. If one of Smith's shots finally goes in, you'll be happy you took the shot.
Brett Connolly ($4,300) is on the other end of the spectrum from Smith. He's got 14 goals with a 23.7 shooting percentage, but he once had a 22.4 shooting percentage over 70 games, so he may not regress as much as you think. Plus, he's been rewarded for his strong performance with a spot on Florida's top line alongside Aleksander Barkov ($7,000). Thrown in a matchup with Nilsson, and Monday may not be a night for regression.
FORWARD LINE STACKS
Evgeny Kuznetsov (C- $5,800), Jakub Vrana (W - $5,500), T.J. Oshie (W - $5,000) vs. Columbus
Sure, you could take the Alex Ovechkin ($7,900) line, but I like the potential in Washington's second line and you can save yourself a smidge of cash. Columbus' 3.30 GAA is smack dab in the middle of the pack, but its goalies have an .898 save percentage. Do you want to believe in Joonas Korpisalo, who has had an .897 save percentage each of his last two seasons? Yeah, that's what I thought.
Kuznetsov has a point in each of his last four games, giving him 32 in 31 games on the year. Oshie has had two points in each of his last two games, and as per usual he's looking good on the power play. He has six goals with the extra man, and the Jackets' penalty kill ranks 20th. Then there's Vrana, the breakout member of this trio. He's already tallied 15 goals on 101 shots through 34 games, and he's tallied 11 points in his last 10 outings.
Filip Forsberg (W - $6,600), Calle Jarnkrok (W, $4,800), Ryan Johansen (C - $4,400) vs. New York
As I mentioned earlier, the Rangers have a 3.09 GAA, thanks in part to giving up 35.3 shots on net per game. They also have the 25th-ranked penalty kill, and all three of these guys play on Nashville's top power-play unit. Combining those two things, and I like all three of these players.
Forsberg is obviously the biggest name. He's had trouble staying healthy the last couple of seasons, and this year has admittedly been no different, but he's healthy now. The Swede also has 11 goals on 91 shots and 11 helpers in 25 games. With Viktor Arvidsson out, Jarnkrok has stepped into a spot on Nashville's top line. He's earned the opportunity to stay there thanks to notching 10 points in his last 11 contests. Johansen is more of a playmaker than goal scorer, but he has six goals this year, including two in his last three games. He also has eight points with the extra man.
DEFENSE
I'm staying on the Predators roster for a moment, because for a big-money defenseman I really like Roman Josi ($7,300). He has the kind of track record that makes that a freezing-cold take, but that doesn't make him any less enticing. I don't want to keep harping on the whole "New York allows 35.3 shots on net per game" thing, but pucks on goal often have good results. Josi is always happy to do his part on that front, as he leads the Predators with 113 shots on goal.
You know what? Let's flip to the other side of that matchup. Adam Fox ($4,000) is a 21-year-old rookie defenseman, but he's already making a splash. This is especially true on the power play, as he's averaged 2:20 per game with the extra man, and eight of his points have come on the power play. Nashville has the 24th-ranked penalty kill, so this game could be up Fox's alley.
Don't want to break the bank on John Carlson ($7,500)? Then consider the much-cheaper Dmitry Orlov ($4,000). Does he have the same upside, or the same floor? Not at all, but he offers potential. He's also been hot, as he's tallied six points in his last eight games.
