This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells begins Tuesday. Italians on both the men's and women's side bring impressive win streaks into Tuesday's action, but one could be in jeopardy of ending, while a top men's player will have an opportunity to avenge a surprising loss. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Jiri Lehecka (+175) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Lehecka was able to stay on the front foot throughout his 6-4, 6-4 upset win over No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev in the previous round thanks to his far superior backhand, as Lehecka could go on the offensive from anywhere while Rublev opened up additional angles of attack in the process of trying to cheat to his weaker side. The result was a stunning disparity in winners, as Lehecka smoked 31 compared to Rublev's meager eight. A similar formula should also work against Tsitsipas, as Rublev and Tsitsipas have two of the weaker backhands among top-20 players. Tsitsipas has won both previous meetings between these two, but they haven't played in over a year, and 22-year-old Lehecka could be in the process of making the leap into the top 20 or even higher based on his superb form against Rublev.
Ben Shelton (+425) vs. Jannik Sinner
Even if Sinner brings just his B-game, few players have the talent to keep pace with the red-hot Italian, but Shelton's an exception. Sinner's rightfully viewed as a clear favorite considering he's undefeated in 2024, but Shelton tends to play his best against big-name opponents and has the power to take the racquet out of your hands with his booming serve. Shelton defeated Sinner at the Shanghai Masters 1000 in October, and while Sinner got his revenge in Vienna later that month, their competitive head-to-head suggests Shelton's slim odds are underestimating his chances of handing Sinner his first loss of 2024, especially since the fiery former University of Florida star knows how to channel the American crowd's energy in his favor.
Honorable Mention
Angelique Kerber (+140) vs. Caroline Wozniacki
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Carlos Alcaraz (-1100) vs. Fabian Marozsan
Marozsan defeated Alcaraz in Rome in what may have been the most shocking upset of 2023, but a repeat performance is unlikely as Alcaraz will have his guard up for this rematch. Outside of that one-off result, the disparity in level of play between these two is substantial, as Marozsan has yet to crack the top 50 while Alcaraz is ranked No. 2 and seems unlikely to leave the top three anytime soon. Marozsan has clawed his season record back to 7-7 with a trio of wins here, but he'll almost certainly drop back below .500 after this match.
Honorable Mention
Iga Swiatek (-3500) vs. Yulia Putintseva
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Jasmine Paolini (-155) vs. Anastasia Potapova
Paolini won the Dubai WTA 1000 in her previous event and is coming off a third-round victory over Anna Kalinskaya in a rematch of the Dubai final, so nobody on the WTA Tour is flying higher than the Italian at the moment. The world No. 14 has a nice opportunity to keep rolling against the 33rd-ranked Potapova, who has capitalized on a favorable draw to get this far but has a 1-3 record in 2024 against players ranked above her, compared to 8-2 versus lower-ranked opponents.
Alexander Zverev (-105) vs. Alex de Minaur
De Minaur beat Zverev at the United Cup in Australia, which the top players treat as a warm-up for the Australian Open, but the Aussie is 1-2 against top-10 players since that tournament. Despite playing the best tennis of his career, the 10th-ranked de Minaur still lacks the cache of the top players due to a lack of Grand Slam success and a counterpunching style that puts the match on his opponent's racquet when he faces fellow top-10 players. Overall, the sixth-ranked Zverev still leads their head-to-head 6-2, and the Australian Open semifinalist has a much longer track record of success in majors and Masters 1000 events. The 6-foot-6 Zverev's ability to get free points with his serve could prove to be the difference here, as de Minaur will have to work much harder to hold.
Honorable Mention
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-145) vs. Marta Kostyuk
