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Avoid Have vs. Have-Not Matchups

The Celtics beat the Sonics by 29 points Wednesday night, 111 – 82. The starters all finished their nights very early, with the Sonics' starters averaging 27 minutes and the Celtics' starters averaging only 22 minutes played in the game. Consequently, none of the players on either team lived up to their fantasy potential on the night. Similar stories played out in Denver and Dallas, where the Nuggets and Mavericks blew out the Grizzlies and Bobcats. Meanwhile, the Knicks and Heat played a hard-fought 91 – 88 game in which 10 players played 33 or more minutes and thus hit their fantasy numbers.

At this time of year the great teams are revving up for the post-season and the poor teams are preparing for the lottery, and the disparity between the caliber of play between the haves and the have-nots will only continue to get larger over the next month. I have suggested in the past that it is safer to start players from good teams than bad teams to avoid poor efforts, but upon further reflection that isn't necessarily true. Instead, you almost have to look at the schedule and start players from teams that will play other teams of similar quality. Start players from good teams against other good teams, and likewise start players from poor teams if they will be playing other poor teams. But, within reason, avoid players in matchups of great teams against poor teams, because it is too likely that these games could be over by the half.