We often talk about scarcity in fantasy baseball. Scarcity can be discussed by position, or with particular stats. We can talk about the player pool as a whole, or in segments. I want to focus on just one segment today - the AL shortstops player pool.
The position is as scarce as I've ever seen it, both in terms of elite talent as well as overall depth. Derek Jeter and Michael Young are returning from subpar seasons, Carlos Guillen has been moved off the position, Orlando Cabrera is still a free agent, Edgar Renteria has moved to the NL, and Julio Lugo has dropped off the map. Our top three shortstops reside in the NL East, and the gap to our next shortstop, Jeter, isn't particularly close. But the problem is much deeper than that - in our top 20, only six are AL players (Jeter, Young, Jhonny Peralta, Mike Aviles, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jason Bartlett), and Cabrera still might sign with an AL team (it's really amazing that his status as a Type A free agent has really crushed almost all interest in him this offseason). Assuming Alexei Ramirez's conversion to shortstop goes smoothly, he'll eventually be available to slot there, but not on Draft Day. On the flip side, Young will presumably lose that eligiblity for next year.
The general takeaway here is that you'd better address this position early in your AL drafts, and make it a priority to fill in your auction - you'll probably have to overpay to have an adequate solution. Otherwise, you're going to have to scramble on some speculative players. Let's break down the player pool at shortstop in tiers:
First tier, elite players: None
Second tier: Derek Jeter, Michael Young, Jhonny Peralta, Mike Aviles, (Orlando Cabrera)
It speaks volumes about the position that Jeter remains the top AL fantasy shorstop, despite returning from a year of decline at age 34. I tend to think he'll rebound a little (he played some of the year with a sore hand, plus the Yankees' lineup around him has improved), but the power is gone. Similarly, Young played through a fractured finger over the second half. Still, his 20+ homer seasons are a thing of the past, even if he returns to batting .300. Peralta might eventually make the move over to third base this year, but I suspect he'll get in enough games at short this year to qualify there in 2010. Aviles is a tough call, because of his sudden emergence. He's not especially young (turns 28 in March) or patient (just 14 unintentional walks), so he's going to need to keep benefiting from a high BABIP. But the overall scarcity of the position prompted me to include him on this tier. He also qualifies at 2B in many leagues.
Third tier: Yuniesky Betancourt, Jason Bartlett, Maicer Izturis, Jed Lowrie, Asdrubral Cabrera (2b)
Betancourt turns 27 at the end of the month - we can no longer use "he's still young" to excuse his stagnation at the plate. If you'd contend that Lowrie deserves a higher ranking this, I wouldn't argue too much. He at least has the potential to make the leap, though I like him more in Scoresheet and Strat leagues than I do in roto leagues. Cabrera qualifies at both SS and 2b in many leagues - check your league's position-eligibility requirements.
Fourth tier: Erick Aybar, Brendan Harris, Julio Lugo, Cliff Pennington, Bobby Crosby, Cesar Izturis
Here's where we're dipping into playing time concerns, or players that contribute in just one category. Note that we think Maicer Izturis has a better hitting projection than Aybar, even though Aybar is the projected starter at short for the Angels - suffice to say, between Izturis, Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood, the Angels have plenty of options should Aybar get off to a slow start.
Remainder: Nick Punto, Sean Rodriguez, Ben Zobrist, Ronny Cedeno, Ramon Santiago, Omar Vizquel, Elvis Andrus, Brandon Wood, Adam Everett, Brent Lillibridge
If you insist on fishing out of this pool, I'd gamble on someone making a big leap than just taking the higher rated (mostly due to more projected playing time) player. Rodriguez, Cedeno, Andrus, Wood and Lillibridge have the most interest to me. Note that Wood actually qualifies here for the first time in a couple of years.
Barring future trades, there's not much in the way of obvious immediate help, either. There are six AL shortstops in John Sickels' top 100 Prospects rankings:
28. Elvis Andrus
42. Carlos Triunfel
43. Tim Beckham
49. Gordon Beckham
57. Reid Brignac
84. Adrian Cardenas
From that list, only Andrus is guaranteed playing time (or, at least, a shot at winning a job in spring training). Gordon Beckham might get a quick promotion by the end of the season, as might Triunfel, but in the case of the latter, it's not guaranteed he'll stick at shortstop.
If you're in a deep AL league, you'd better start doing your prep now to see what it's going to cost to land one of those second-tier shortstops, spend on Alexei Ramirez and hope the move to short sticks, or have a bead on one of the lower-tiered guys making the leap. The pickings are pretty slim.