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Tough Projections - A's 1B

While we're working on the magazine, I'm going to occasionally blog about a few of things that catch my eye. Occasionally they'll just be a set of little notes (e.g. John McDonald, who should get more playing time than he did last year with the Jays' personnel changes, drew just one walk all season in 2009), other times I might have a larger point.

Today, I wanted to cover one of the trickier projections so far - figuring out the playing time among the putative A's first basemen. When they acquired Jake Fox from the Cubs this week, it further muddied an already cloudy picture. He's nominally listed as a third baseman, but his defensive reputation is more as a DH-in-waiting. He played more 3B than anywhere else with the Cubs in 2009, but 1B was his least-bad position (According to Fangraphs, his UZR's were: 1B: -0.8; 3B: -2.1; LF: -4.0; RF: -1.0. All sample size caveats apply). So while the A's might want to try him out at third, or perhaps as a corner outfielder, in the long run he'll gravitate towards 1B or DH, I think.

Here are some of the others that will be vying for time at the position:

Daric Barton: The incumbent at the position, given how the A's finished up last year. It might be tempting to write Barton off, but (a) he only turned 24 in August this year, and (b) he showed some signs of being able to hold his own upon his callup last year, putting up a .372 OBP. He'll never be a 30-homer masher, but he can also avoid being a drag on the offense until Chris Carter is ready.

Chris Carter: Carter was a secondary name going to the A's in the Dan Haren trade, and because he's struck out so much at each level, he's never rated as an elite prospect. But he's also gone nuts at the plate otherwise the last two years, hitting for power and drawing walks both years, and hitting for average as well at Double-A. He just hit Triple-A at the end of 2009 and it sounds like the A's want to keep him there to start 2010, and perhaps play him in the outfield, which would help ease the logjam.

Brett Wallace: Like Fox, the big question for Wallace is his position. Can he stick at third? The consensus point of view since he was drafted is that he'll eventually need to move across the position. For now, however, the A's want to keep him at third, and also will probably start him at Triple-A. Because of his lack of service time, the A's don't need to put him on the 40-man roster yet to protect him, and that might also slow down his promotion schedule.

Tommy Everidge: Everidge is an organizational soldier, not a prospect, but he can mash lefties. He's limited defensively (an organizational trend) and can't really hit righties, but he has his short-term uses.

Sean Doolittle: Injuries ruined his 2009 season, the A's are relatively high on him too and many prospect gurus liked him better than Carter before last year.

Barring a further move by the A's, look for a Barton/Everidge platoon to start the season, with the possibility that Barton gets the job outright or at least plays a big role most of the season. This is his big put-up or shut-up season. But one of Carter or Wallace is likely to intrude by late season. Barton also got off to a dreadfully slow start in 2008, something he won't be able to afford this year.