Last Week we talked about the concept of properly pricing closers, particularly those that we suspect will post poorer ERA's and ratio numbers compared to their competition. One suggestion I received from a reader was to have a separate set of rankings just for the projected closers of each team. While I think it's important to realize that some of the top set-up men will be worth more than the worst closers, I understand the desire to have one list of just those closers. Of course, this sort of ranking breaks down a little bit when a team or group of teams is projected to have a closer committee instead of one primary closer. So for this list, I'll note where there that uncertainty lies. Without further ado, here's our list of closer rankings with a brief comment on each closer.
1. Heath Bell, Padres - There's a reasonable risk that Bell could get traded, but he's pushing to re-sign with the Padres. If he sticks in Petco and stays healthy, he's a good bet to earn 40+ saves and have great ratio numbers.
2. Carlos Marmol, Cubs - Marmol was last year's most valuable closer, allowing his owners to skimp a little on starting pitchers by striking out so many batters. There are two concerns about his long-term viability - his 6.03 BB/9 rate, and his heavy reliance on the slider, which could lead to arm woes.
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees - It's hard to not turn a profit by owning Rivera. His floor is his 2007 season, when he had a merely good ERA (3.15) and WHIP (1.121).
4. Joakim Soria, Royals - The Royals' potential lack of save chances moves Soria down a few notches on the list.
5. Brian Wilson, Giants - Wilson might not be ready for the start of the season due to an oblique injury suffered over the weekend. But he cemented himself among the elite when healthy with his performance over the last two years.
6. Neftali Feliz, Rangers - Because the Rangers still haven't decided on his role, we have to discount him by a few pegs. But even if he starts, he'll be valuable. If he does move to the rotation, Alexi Ogando is my best bet for an internal replacement.
7. Huston Street, Rockies - Street has had a hard time staying healthy over the years, but when he's healthy he's been dominant. Add in my belief that the Rockies will win a lot of games this season and that translates into a lot of saves for Street.
8. Matt Thornton, White Sox - Thornton has been among the better relievers in baseball for the last couple of years, but now the closer's job is finally his following last week's announcement by manager Ozzie Guillen.
9. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets - K-Rod's off-field issues and his contract situation most often dominate the conversation, but it's overlooked that he was actually having a fine season last year before his blow-up, cutting his walk rate from 5.03/9IP to 3.30, all while maintaining his strikeout rate.
10. Chris Perez, Indians - The Indians will probably be a sub-.500 team, but because many of their wins will likely be by smaller margins, a greater percentage of their wins will provide save chances for Perez.
11. Jose Valverde, Tigers - A late-season elbow injury marred what was otherwise a very smooth transition to the American League last year. He's healthy now, and his skills remain intact.
12. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox - Papelbon isn't higher than this because of his September swoon and two identifiable alternatives in the Red Sox pen in Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks.
13. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks - Watch out to make sure his current back woes don't sideline him to start the season. The Diamondbacks don't have many strong alternatives behind him, so Putz has security when healthy.
14. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals - Franklin's component numbers are weaker than many of those below him, but he has the confidence in his manager Tony La Russa and the likelihood of a lot of save opportunities working in his favor.
15. John Axford, Brewers - You could make the case that Axford belongs higher on the list, given his strikeout rate (11.79/9IP) and lack of homers allowed (one in 58 innings last year), but he also walks a lot and has less of a track record of those that precede him on the list.
16. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers - Broxton was a top-five closer last year but his job security concerns have to move him down the list. Not only did he lose the job last year and lose velocity on his fastball in the process, but the Dodgers have two excellent alternatives in Hong-Chih Kuo and Kenley Jansen.
17. Joel Hanrahan, Pirates - Hanrahan struck out a whopping 100 batters in 69.2 innings last year all while lowering his walk rate to a career low.
18. Andrew Bailey, Athletics - Bailey would rate higher but for his elbow concerns. We don't know yet whether he'll be ready for the start of the season.
19. Brad Lidge, Phillies - There are conflicting factors at work in ranking Lidge. In his favor is his manager Charlie Manuel's absolute loyalty in keep Lidge in the closer's role. Working against him is the high walk rate (4.73/9IP - in a good year, no less) and his health concerns. He currently is recovering from a biceps injury, but successfully worked in a minor league game Tuesday.
20. Joe Nathan, Twins - Nathan absolutely could end up a top-five closer, as he returns from Tommy John surgery. But it's also possible that the Twins will ease him back into the role, giving Matt Capps the save chances for the first month of the season.
21. Leo Nunez, Marlins - Nunez has more job security than I initially gave him credit for over the winter. He's the closer ahead of Clay Hensley - I initially thought it might be otherwise.
22. Brandon Lyon, Astros - Like Ryan Franklin, Lyon is less dominant than the vast majority of the closers on this list, but when he's healthy he remains fairly effective in large part by inducing a great-than-average number of ground balls.
23. Drew Storen, Nationals - Storen has had a rough spring, but as it turns out, that's in part because he was instructed early on in spring training to throw only fastballs to improve his command. His job-security concerns may have been a little overblown.
24. Francisco Cordero, Reds - Cordero was my illustration last week in how difficult it is to value closers. He might just possibly hold onto the job all season, or he could lose it in June. So far his spring training results have been encouraging.
25. Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters, Braves - The Braves are going with a timeshare between Kimbrel and Venters, saying that they have no specific date when one or the other will close. But both have strong strikeout rates and should remain valuable even if the other ends up closing full-time.
26. Jacob McGee, Rays - This is really a best-guess as to who will end up with the Rays' closer job, but there's a very good chance that this good team will end up with the closest thing to a pure committee out there. I do like McGee's skills if he gets the job.
27. Frank Francisco, Blue Jays - Francisco just had a visit to Dr. James Andrews, which is never an encouraging sign. But fortunately he was diagnosed with a strained pectoral muscle and nothing worse to his shoulder. He will begin the year on the DL, however, and Jon Rauch will fill in his stead.
28. Brandon League, Mariners - The nominal closer for the Mariners is David Aardsma, but he's out for at least the first month of the season with a hip injury. League will close for now, but that uncertainty about what happens when Aardsma returns reduces the value of both pitchers.
29. Kevin Gregg, Orioles - Gregg hasn't yet been officially feted as the closer, but Koji Uehara's elbow woes again this spring will at least give Gregg a head start. Last year's free agent closer, Mike Gonzalez, also looms as a potential threat.
30. Fernando Rodney, Angels - Not even the Angels have been willing to endorse Rodney strongly, but he's the guy for now, and looks to be for the near future with Scott Downs opening the season on the DL. Downs, Kevin Jepsen and Jordan Walden are all threats to ultimately steal the job from Rodney.