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2015-16 November Schedule Analysis

Alas, November is the month of rotation amalgamation, a feeling out process between new teammates and neophyte coaches, and NBA babies with the All-Star break nine months in the rear-view mirror. Owning players from teams with maximum games will give your fantasy team an edge in your weekly matchups and thrust you higher in the standings before December arrives. Healthy players and quality players also help in the eternal struggle for fantasy supremacy.

The NBA's schedule was vastly improved this season, and it minimized the disparity leaguewide. As such, there are only four instances this month of a team playing a back-to-back on Saturday and Sunday. (The Pistons in Week 3, and the Nets, Raptors, and Lakers in Week 5). Those end-of-week pickups will come at a premium this season. The table below documents the average number of games per day in November. Most nights will boast seven games, a number I'd like to emphasize.

MONTUEWEDTHUFRISATSUN
76.7510.753.667117.56.6

I've determined seven games, as opposed to Basketball Monster's standard five games, is the requisite benchmark for a quality game. For the unaware, quality games are exploitable days on the schedule where fewer teams play, guaranteeing a roster spot in your lineup for all the active players. A standard 12-team league rosters 156 players, or 5.2 players per NBA team. When 14 NBA teams (7 games) are in action, approximately 73 active players are rostered. That leaves each fantasy team with roughly six players for 10 active spots in their lineup. It provides leeway for fantasy teams to incorporate one or two streaming slots. The math works for 10-team leagues as well. While I can't singlehandedly alter the universal definition of a quality game, much like my preference for per possession numbers instead of the commonplace Per 36 minute stats, quantitative data can loosen the bounds of a quality game.

For the visual learners, below is an image of my roster in a 12-team league on the next four nights with seven NBA games. You'll note the amount of empty spots in the active lineup on those nights fluctuate, but there's always a spot open for streaming.

Quality Game example

Ranked below are teams based on total games, quality games (nights with seven games or fewer), back-to-backs, and home/road splits. Each team contains a mini weekly schedule. Quality games are bold. My criteria for a quality game is met on 18 of the 30 days. There are at least 10 games every Wednesday and Friday, accounting for eight of the 11 days that carry at least eight games.

My only disclaimer is that I am not a doctor. I've aggregated the latest news for injured players and will alert you when attempting to pinpoint a return date.

Key Dates:

November 2: Deadline to sign rookie contract extensions

November 26: Thanksgiving/No basketball games

Cheat Sheet:

November Schedule Analysis

Tier 1 - 17 Games

1. Atlanta Hawks

Hawks

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @MIA, BKN, @NOR, WAS

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): MIN, NOR, @BOS, UTA

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @BKN, SAC, @CLE

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): BOS, @MIN, @MEM, @SAS

The Hawks commence and conclude the month with five games in seven nights.

Need a reason to add Dennis Schroder? I've got your back. The Hawks are proceeding cautiously with Kyle Korver, recently resting him the second night of a back-to-back. Thabo Sefolosha is also being rested one game of back-to-backs. Should the training staff enforce that edict the entire month, Sefolosha will be available for 12 games at most.

Tier 2 - 16 Games

2. Dallas Mavericks

Mavs

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): TOR, CHA, NOR

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @NOR, LAC, LAL, @HOU

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @PHI, @BOS, UTA, @OKC

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @MEM, @SAS, DEN

The Mavericks are saddled with road games out the gate, playing 12 of their first 19 away from American Airlines Center.

Chandler Parsons and Deron Williams are expected to play today. Wesley Matthews and Williams recently skipped out on the second game of a back-to-back. I gather Parsons will be subjected to similar treatment. Coach Carlisle strikes me as a wise individual. If I were him, I'd alternate rest days for Parsons and Matthews on back-to-backs, guaranteeing at least one of them was in the lineup. Only three back-to-backs this month is on the low end, and that number holds for December. That means 24 out of their next 30 contests will be preceded by at least one off day, and this could be a moot point by Christmas.

JaVale McGee (leg) doesn't carry timetable for his return. He's played 28 combined games over the previous two seasons.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @HOU, TOR, @CHI, PHX

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @WAS, PHI, BOS

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @MEM, NOR, NYK, DAL

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @UTA, BKN, DET

The Thunder starts November with four games in five nights. It will be the first indication of how coach Donovan plans to use Kevin Durant.  Donovan already stated he doesn't plan to restrict Durant's playing time, and Durant playing 54 minutes in their double-overtime victory should be proof enough. All four November back-to-backs are home/road sets.

Cameron Payne is eventually going to capture the backup point guard role. For now, coach Donovan is relying on veteran D.J. Augustin. The excessive home games allow the organize ample opportunity to send Payne on a couple D-League assignments in preparation for second half utilization.

4. Golden State Warriors

Warriors

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): MEM, LAC, DEN, @SAC

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): DET, @MEM, @MIN, BKN

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): TOR, @LAC, CHI, @DEN

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): LAL, @PHX, SAC

Through the first six weeks of the season, the Warriors play 15 road games and only nine home games.

Andrew Bogut is expected to return soon after missing two games with a concussion. He's owned in 24 percent of ESPN leagues. Color me perplexed. His free-throw shooting is abhorrent, but he attempts less than one per game. The rest of his line is worthy of a bench spot.

5. Denver Nuggets

Nuggets

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @LAL, UTA, @GSW

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): POR, MIL, HOU, @PHX

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @NOR, @SAS, PHX, GSW

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): LAC, SAS, @DAL

Coach Michael Malone hinted Jusuf Nurkic (knee) could play this month. Nurkic is 6'11" center with leg issues, missing portions of last season with an ankle problem that never fully healed. Not being able to enhance his conditioning this summer while playing at the highest altitude isn't a good combination. Nurkic played 15.5 minutes per game at home and 20.2 minutes per game on the road. His time on the court was also limited by his 3.3 fouls in just 17.8 minutes per game.

Wilson Chandler is in jeopardy of missing the first two weeks (~7 games) due to a right hip strain. It's not considered a serious issue, but he has a history of groin/hip problems and procedures. Introducing him into the lineup could eat into Gary Harris and Will Barton's minutes.

6. San Antonio Spurs

Spurs

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @NYK, @WAS, CHA

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @SAC, @POR, PHI

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): POR, DEN, @NOR, MEM 

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): PHX, DAL, @DEN, ATL

No Spur has averaged more than 32.0 minutes per game in the month of November since the 2010-11 season. If the first game of the season is any indication, Kawhi Leonard may snap the streak.

Tim Duncan has played 58 consecutive games, most since the 2010-11 season. The Spurs play three games in four nights three times this month, but never play four games in five nights or five games in seven nights until March.

7. Milwaukee Bucks

Bucks

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @BKN, PHI, @NYK, BKN

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): BOS, @DEN, CLE

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @WAS, @CLE, @IND

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): DET, SAC, @ORL, @CHA

Jabari Parker (knee) could return in November, according to coach Jason Kidd. However, I don't think it will be this week because the Bucks play five games in seven nights. Prior to skipping out on the preseason opener, Parker made remarks about wanting to return in front of the home crowd. If he feels the same way about the regular season, that opens up the possibility of a return on November 14th or November 23rd. In any event, management is keen on limiting Parker. General manager John Hammand said the following earlier this summer:

"We're going to be very conservative with him. If we think he's capable of playing 20 [minutes], we'll maybe play him 10 minutes. If we think he can play a back-to-back, we'll wait on the back-to-back. Whatever it is, we're going to be very cautious as [we] move forward."

O.J. Mayo is currently out with a hamstring injury. Those tend to linger, and it's anyone's guess as to when Mayo returns to the court. Two weeks is a neutral approximation, but a timetable hasn't been produced.

8. Toronto Raptors

Raptors

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @DAL, @OKC, @ORL, @MIA

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): NYK, @PHI, NOR, @SAC

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @GSW, @UTA, @LAL, @LAC

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): CLE, @WAS, PHX

The Raptors play nine of their required 32 out-of-conference games in November. They are one of four teams to play four games in Week 2, 3, and 4. Outside the top four starters, I don't know if you would willingly add anyone else to your fantasy squad.

9. Sacramento Kings

Kings

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): MEM, @PHX, HOU, GSW

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): SAS, DET, BKN, TOR

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @ATL, @MIA, @ORL

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @CHA, @MIL, MIN, @GSW

The Kings follow a season-high six-game road trip, beginning November 6th, with a season-high, five-game Eastern Conference road trip. They should get off to a solid start with a ton of home games against Eastern Conference foes and nine of their first 11 games at home.

DeMarcus Cousins sustained a sore right Achilles last night. This is why injured reserve spots were invented for fantasy basketball. If Cousins is shut down for any period of time, Willie Cauley-Stein can approximate Cousins' steal and block combination.

10. Philadelphia 76ers

Sixers

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): CLE, @MIL, @CLE, ORL

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): CHI, TOR, @OKC, @SAS

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): DAL, IND, @CHA, @MIA

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @MIN, @BOS, @HOU, @MEM

The Sixers are the only team to play four games each of the next four weeks. They end the month with a six-game road trip. For the entire month, they don't get more than one day off. From November 20-January 2, the Sixers play 18 of 24 games on the road. Just to remind you, they lost the first 17 games of the season last year and still didn't finish with the worst record for the second straight year.

Tony Wroten (knee) isn't expected back until December.

Kendall Marshall (knee) has a chance to play by the end of November, and he'll eventually supplant Isaiah Canaan in the starting lineup. Canaan is slow, lacks an NBA handle, doesn't know how to make an entry pass, and lost his job to Ish Smith last season. Don't break the piggy bank attempting to roster Canaan this month. He'll settle around 25 minutes per game soon enough.

Robert Covington doesn't have a timetable to return from a sprained MCL and bone bruise in his right knee. While originally thought to be a 1-2 week diagnosis, the Sixers have a track record of being patient with injured players.

11. Boston Celtics

Celtics

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @IND, WAS

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @MIL, IND, ATL, @OKC

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @HOU, DAL, BKN, @BKN

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @ATL, PHI, WAS, @ORL

I've decided to nickname Bradley Stevens "Even Stevens." Stevens values rotation fluidity. He considers a set rotation a negative and easily scoutable.  Best of luck to you all.

12. Houston Rockets

Rockets

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): OKC, ORL, @SAS, @LAC

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): BKN, @DEN, DAL

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): BOS, POR, @MEM, NYK

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): MEM, PHI, @NYK

The Rockets are one of two teams with a monthly low of five quality games.

Donatas Motiejunas is out indefinitely after undergoing back surgery in April. I don't even think he's begun practicing yet.

Dwight Howard is sitting out today, the first game of a back-to-back. The Rockets play four more sets this month. Clint Capela is a name to monitor. He played 25 minutes in the game Howard was suspended, and he's block five shots through two games.

Tier 3 - 15 Games

13. Portland Trail Blazers

Trail Blazers

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @MIN, @UTA, MEM, DET

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @DEN, SAS, @MEM, @CHA

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @SAS, @HOU, LAC, @LAL

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): CHI, LAL

Gerald Henderson (hip) is the elephant in the room. He missed the entire preseason, and his return could cull minutes from Allen Crabbe and Maurice Harkless.

Sidenote: Truthfully, I can't wait for this season to be over so people can stop calling Meyers Leonard a 50/40/90 guy. He didn't take enough shots to qualify for any of those percentages, and now that he's starting, none of those hurdles will be cleared.

14. Minnesota Timberwolves

Timberwolves

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): POR, MIA, @CHI

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @ATL, CHA, GSW, @IND, MEM

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @MIA, @ORL, DET

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): PHI, ATL, @SAC, @LAC

Over a 12-day span (November 7-18), the Timberwolves play eight games, five of which are of the quality variety. With Kevin Garnett all but guaranteed intermittent rest, Nemanja Bjelica will have extra opportunities to showcase his value. Hidden within that timeframe is a five-game Week 3, four of which occur on nights with fewer than half the league playing.

15. Memphis Grizzlies

Grizzlies

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @GSW, @SAC, @POR, @UTA

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @LAC, GSW, POR, @MIN

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): OKC, HOU, @SAS

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): DAL, @HOU, ATL, PHI

The Grizzlies begin the month on a five-game road trip against Western Conference foes. Their final two games are their only November contests against the Eastern Conference. Tony Allen already has a league-high eight steals through three games. Imagine the damage he could do with back-to-back four-game weeks.

16. Detroit Pistons

Pistons

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): IND, @PHX, @POR

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @GSW, @SAC, @LAC, @LAL

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): CLE, @MIN, WAS

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @MIL, MIA, @OKC, @BKN

The Pistons embark on a six-game West Coast road trip, their longest road trip of the year, from November 6-15. Aside from the truncated February and April schedules, the Pistons engage in 15 games every month.

Jodie Meeks (foot) is sidelined for the next three months.

Brandon Jennings (Achilles) will likely to miss the entire month. Jennings' tentative return date is Christmas, a timetable offered by coach Stan Van Gundy during the preseason.

17. Charlotte Hornets

Hornets

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): CHI, @DAL, @SAS

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @MIN, NYK, @CHI, POR

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @NYK, BKN, PHI

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): SAC, WAS, CLE, MIL

The Hornets begin a season-high seven-game homestand on November 18th and last 18 days between road games. Their schedule is always front-loaded with home games because their building hosts a bevy of college basketball around tournament time. Ten of their 15 November games come against teams that made the playoffs last season.

18. New York Knicks

Knicks

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): SAS, @CLE, MIL, LAL

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @TOR, @CHA, CLE, NOR

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): CHA, @OKC, @HOU

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @MIA, @ORL, MIA, HOU

Nine of their first 11 games of the season come against playoff teams.

Arron Afflalo missed the first four games of the preseason with a sore left hamstring. He aggravated the hamstring prior to the start of the season and will likely sit two weeks (8 games). When he returns, Sasha Vujacic, his hair, and his quick trigger will find a seat on the bench.

19. Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): PHX, @GSW, HOU

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): MEM, @DAL, @PHX, DET

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): GSW, @POR, TOR

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @DEN, UTA, NOR, MIN

The Clippers don't leave the state of California until November 11th. They play a league-high eight games over the final 12 days of November. Perhaps Coach Rivers will have a set rotation by then and you can decide if rostering Josh Smith or Lance Stephenson will be worth the tradeoff for the quantity of games on the schedule.

20. Orlando Magic

Magic

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @NOR, @HOU, TOR, @PHI

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @IND, LAL, UTA, @WAS

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): MIN, SAC

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @CLE, NYK, MIL, BOS

The Magic begin the month with five games in seven nights, four of which occur away from the Amway Center.

The Magic are relatively healthy entering November. Channing Frye received three consecutive DNP-CDs, and Evan Fournier currently owns the starting small forward gig. I expected Aaron Gordon will claim that spot in due time, but he's being brought along slowly and will have to earn it.

Tier 4- 14 Games

21. Miami Heat

Heat

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): ATL, @MIN, @IND, TOR

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): LAL, UTA

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): MIN, SAC, PHI

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): NYK, @DET, @NYK

The Heat play 12 of their first 17 November games at home, including a seven-game homestand spanning 17 days and beginning November 8th. According to ESPN, the Heat have the easiest NBA schedule prior to Christmas, facing opponents with a .397 winning percentage last season. They also play a league-high 10 home games and 10 quality games in November. Fire away, Gerald Green. Fire away.

Over a 10 day span (November 7-16), the Heat plays three games. The Heat plan on providing Amar'e Stoudemire planned rest days. I've also read Josh McRoberts could be in line for similar treatment.

22. Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavs

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @PHI, NYK, PHI, IND

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): UTA, @NYK, @MIL

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @DET, MIL, ATL

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): ORL, @TOR, @CHA, BKN

Iman Shumpert (right wrist) isn't expected to return this month, and he may not play until 2016.

Kyrie Irving has an outside shot of making an appearance around Thanksgiving. He underwent surgery on a fractured kneecap in June. A November return would place five months after the surgery. Realistically, I expect him to return in early December.

Sidenote: If Kevin Love shaved his beard, he'd resemble Olivia Newton-John in the Physical music video.

23. Los Angeles Lakers

Lakers

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): DEN, @BKN, @NYK

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @MIA, @ORL, @DAL, DET

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @PHX, TOR, POR

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @GSW, @POR, IND

For the entire season, 37 of the Lakers' games occur on nights with fewer than eight games. By my updated definition of a quality game, the Lakers lead all teams in such instances (league average is 29 quality games). Per the schedule, 22 of their first 33 games are on the road.

The Lakers yielded a career-high 28 points to Ricky Rubio and 21 points to Rajon Rondo to start the season. Marcelo Huertas and Lou Williams lead the Lakers with 3.0 assists per game. Nick Young leads the team with three steals. Roy Hibbert has made all 14 free-throw attempts.  I don't know what else to say.

24. Phoenix Suns

Suns

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @LAC, SAC, DET, @OKC

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): LAC, DEN

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): LAL, CHI, @DEN, @NOR

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @SAS, NOR, GSW, @TOR

https://twitter.com/jjcallejr/status/617035741638590464

25. New Orleans Pelicans

Pelicans

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): ORL, ATL, @DAL

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): DAL, @ATL, @TOR, @NYK

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): DEN, @OKC, SAS, PHX

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @PHX, @LAC, @UTA

Jrue Holiday, due to extenuating circumstances, had his minute limit boosted to 25 per game. He said he's been pain-free since June, but the training staff didn't want a repeat stress reaction in his right leg. The signing of Toney Douglas negates Ish Smith's fantasy relevancy, and Norris Cole, who suffered a high ankle sprain during the preseason, could be back by the end of November.

Tyreke Evans (knee) isn't expected to return until December.

Quincy Pondexter (knee) may not come back until December.

26. Brooklyn Nets

Nets

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): MIL, @ATL, LAL, @MIL

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @HOU, @SAC, @GSW

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): ATL, @CHA, @BOS, BOS

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @OKC, @CLE, DET

The Nets are one of two teams with a monthly low of five quality games. For the second straight year, the starting shooting guard is merely a placeholder for reserve Bojan Bogdanovic. Thomas Robinson leads the team in rebounds (21) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson leads the team in blocks (3). This team is last in three-pointers made (2.7) and attempted (12.7) per game. Resistance is futile.

Tier 5 - 13 Games

27. Indiana Pacers

Pacers

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @DET, BOS, MIA, @CLE

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): ORL, @BOS, MIN

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): @CHI, @PHI, MIL

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @WAS, CHI, @LAL

Paul George will oscillate between starting power forward and small forward given the matchup. The Pacers are blessed with only two games against the Western Conference, squaring off against the Timberwolves and Lakers.

28. Utah Jazz

Jazz

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): POR, @DEN, MEM

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @CLE, @MIA, @ORL, @ATL

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): TOR, @DAL

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): OKC, @LAC, NOR

The best time to avoid Jazz players is over the final 10 days because they play four games against Western Conference powerhouses.

Tier 6 - 12 Games

29. Chicago Bulls

Bulls

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): @CHA, OKC, MIN

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): @PHI, CHA

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): IND, @PHO, @GSW

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): @POR, @IND

The Bulls are the only team sans back-to-backs in November. They endure their yearly circus road trip, playing four games in 12 days beginning on November 18th. In a macro sense, Chicago only plays on five Sundays the entire season, the first of which occurs in Week 10 (December 28-January 3). That reduces your chance of streaming the likes of Taj Gibson or Douglas McDermott on the final day of a weekly matchup.

Mike Dunleavy will probably miss the entire month. The 35-year-old doesn't want to put a timetable on his recovery from back surgery. The initial timeline was 8-10 weeks, and he went under the knife on September 25.

Tier 7 - 11 Games

30. Washington Wizards

Wizards

Week 2 (Nov 2-8): SAS, @BOS, @ATL

Week 3 (Nov 9-15): OKC, ORL

Week 4 (Nov 16-22): MIL, @DET

Week 5 (Nov 23-29): IND, @CHA, @BOS, TOR

From November 8-23, the Wizards play four games total, overlapping Week 3 and 4 of the regular season. No need to grab Kris Humphries.